by esconded, Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 09:05:09 AM EDT
Obama is up three in the Gallup tracker. Perhaps Rasmussen lags because of the timing in releases--6:30am Pacific vs. Gallup's 10am release time.
Another possibility is that a gap is opening up between registered and likely voters. I still think McCain will win this election.
Any thoughts?
Tags: Barack Obama, Gallup Poll, John McCain (all tags)
Tracking polls are reliably volatile and are not omnipotent. I'm sorry to sound like a broken record on this but it keeps being born out time and time again.
1. This is not a diary. This is a comment.
2. This is already diaried. Look 2-3 diaries down on the list.
Please delete this.
Yes, there WILL be a gap between registered and likely voters. Likely voters are ones who are energized to vote and strongly support their candidate.... DEMOCRATS.
My other thought is that there are a LOT of people who really hope Obama doesn't win because it will mean that they bet their entire reputation trying to cripple a winning horse.
I'm a Democrat and i'm not very energized about voting. I'm one of those supposedly few still bitter Hillary voters. I think there are more of us out there than you think.
Well, I suppose we'll see. I think there are fewer inflexible and irrational Democrats than you seem to.
I think there are less of you than you think. Especially given the documented enthusiasm gap between Obama and McCain.
But the most revealing numbers in the survey were the ones measuring voter enthusiasm: 61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year's election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.
Depends on the methodology. You'll usually see likely-voter polls trend more Republican. They don't base it off self-reporting (someone saying "I'm definitely going to vote!"), they usually base it off whether you voted in the last election, whether you voted in the primary, your age, etc. It's a complicated formula that tends to overrepresent older Republicans, because they are very reliable poll-goers.
Democrats and young people are not reliable poll-goers, so likely-voter metrics are usually quick to classify them as being not-likely. But this year looks different.
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