New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

New McClatchy Mason-Dixon poll out of south carolina show Obama with a nine point lead. Here are the numbers:

Obama       40
Clinton     31
Edwards     13
Kucinich    1
Undecided   15

This was in the field from 1/14 - 1/16.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/stor y/24946.html
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/static/pdf/po ll/0117scdem.pdf

More after the jump.

Some excerpts from the link regarding internals:

The poll showed Obama, an Illinois senator, leading among African-Americans by a better than 2-1 ratio. Clinton, a New York senator, led among whites by 2-1. Overall, that translates to nearly a 10-point lead for Obama.

The poll showed more than half the likely vote coming from African-Americans -- 54-43 percent -- and a bigger female turnout than male, 59-41 percent.

Two key events could influence voters before the primary: Democratic caucuses Saturday in Nevada, and a debate Monday in Myrtle Beach, S.C. Also, all the candidates will flood into the state after Nevada and spend much of next week courting South Carolina voters.

[snip]

As they do, they'll find a state in which Obama has a lead among men, young voters and Democrats.

He also has an edge over Clinton among women, 39-34 percent. He led among women in Iowa, where he won the overall vote, but trailed among women in New Hampshire, where he lost.

His biggest advantage is among those voters who are looking for change, where he leads Clinton by 65-7.

Clinton has an edge among those older than 50. Among those looking for experience she had an overwhelming 81-7 advantage over Obama.

Edwards, who needs to win the state, had few signs of strength.

He appeared squeezed by the white vote -- he had more white support than Obama but less than Clinton -- and frozen out of the black vote -- he had only 2 percent of the African-American support.

Clinton and Obama essentially divided the vote on those most interested in Iraq, the economy and health care, while Edwards lagged among all three groups.

Also, Obama has a slight edge on the favorability numbers (o-67/16; C-62/14; 56/13). Edwards actually has a slight edge when it comes to the firmness of support (O-79; C-78; E-81).

As far as trends are concerned, the last poll from Mason Dixon was takin in early December, according to which Clinton led with 28%, Obama had 25%, and Edwards with 18%.

Tags: obama, poll, Primary, South Carolina (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Some of the numbers surprise me

"His biggest advantage is among those voters who are looking for change, where he leads Clinton by 65-7.

Clinton has an edge among those older than 50. Among those looking for experience she had an overwhelming 81-7 advantage over Obama."

Clinton only gets 7 on change and Obama only gets 7 on experience?   That is rather odd I think.  Seldom do you see numbers break in such a stark way.  A 60-40 split in politics is usually considered huge.

by dpANDREWS 2008-01-17 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Some of the numbers surprise me

If you look at the exit poll numbers from NH you'll see something similar.  Hillary actually had a decent number of "change" voters, but Obama was way down in the single digits on "experience."

What's really happening here is that people pick their candidate, and then when they're asked why, they supply the buzzword most associated with their candidate of choice.  If Obama's campaign theme were "frumptiousness," you'd find him winning by wide margins among voters who say they like frumptiousness.

by Steve M 2008-01-17 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Some of the numbers surprise me

once again, this is the power of emotion in politics.  live by it or die by it.

by the mollusk 2008-01-17 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Interesting, I'd thought Barry would be leading by double digits. HRC may still lose SC, but not as bad as I once thought.

by lonnette33 2008-01-17 12:12PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Seriously what are you trying to imply with the name "Barry"?  Is is a childish as Bush's "Democrat party"

It was pointed out to me the issue of the media always referring to Hillary Clinton simply as Hillary and that you wouldn't see that with male politicians. I agree and try to talk about her with respect even though I disagree with her politics.

by labor nrrd 2008-01-17 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

My wife has one of Hillary's bumper stickers.  Do you know what it says?  "Hillary"!

by Steve M 2008-01-17 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

I use "Hillary" all the time, and I am a strong supporter of her.  There is nothing wrong with using the first name, in fact many pols encourage it (including Hillary.)  We have seen it a lot over the years:  JEB! (for Jeb Bush when he ran for Gov. of FL here,) LAMAR (Lamar Alexander,) RUDY, etc.

by georgep 2008-01-17 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

I had heard that it was double edge, that the campaign promoted "Hillary" but that journalists use of that term was an issue.  That it was sign of disrepect.  I didn't think it was that big of an issue for these reason you raise, but fair points.  

My larger point is that no one call Obama "Barry" except for peopel who hate him.  I don't even understand what the implications are, but seems childish.

by labor nrrd 2008-01-18 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Honestly, I would not care, if I were an Obama supporter.  I believe I read that he was called Barry all through college by his peers/friends.  It does not seem like a bad name, per se (i.e. if a guys middle name is "Maria," that may be used in disparaging, belittling ways,) so I really can't see what the issue is with Barry.  I can't see using it myself, but I don't see any negativity here, no real pro/con bashing.  Am I missing something, something from a previous campaign perhaps, that may shed a different light on this?

by georgep 2008-01-18 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll
She's closing the gap. SC is not as in the bag for Obama as he may have thought. He needs to win it, and big, to spin this in his own favor. We may have another NH on our hands.
by americanincanada 2008-01-17 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

I don't think the gap is narrowing. The the RCP average is a 9.5% lead, so this just confirms the polling average from the last few polls. The poll showing Obama with a 20% lead was clearly an outlier.

That said, I wouldn't place to much trust in any of these polls. Anything could happen, but given Obama's strong field operation here, I expect a win (although, I have no idea what the margin would be.)

by DPW 2008-01-17 12:56PM | 0 recs
New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

This poll's sample shows African American primary voters in South Carolina increasing to 54% of the total Democratic primary voters from 47% in the last primary.

by hwc 2008-01-17 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Don't you think that's plausible given the fact that Obama is (1) African-American, and (2) he has spent so much effort to attact and get out those votes?

by DPW 2008-01-17 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

I didn't offer any opinion on whether or not I think it is plausible.

by hwc 2008-01-17 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

The point he is making is that while Obama will win South Carolina, it will be with black votes and not with real votes.

by Steve M 2008-01-17 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Gotcha. I forgot to notice the messenger.

by DPW 2008-01-17 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

Obama might win SC, but Clinton is clearly on his trail. The polls are now within single digits, whereas before Obama had 13%, 14% leads.  All it would take would be a 4% swing to flip this, which is well within reach.   Should Clinton win NV, she'll probably make up at least half of the deficit (a 2% swing in her direction and away from Obama makes up a total of 4%.)   All in all, if Clinton wins NV on Sat., I expect South Carolina to be tied.

by georgep 2008-01-17 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

On the Democratic side (Jan 16, 571 Dem LV), Obama has extended his lead over Clinton in the Rasmussen survey to 13 points from 5 points last week:

Democrats
Obama 44 (+6 vs. last poll Jan 13)
Clinton 31 (-2)
Edwards 15 (-2)

Obama leads by 9.7% in the updated RCP Average for South Carolina.

Georgep I thought you said that Clinton was within 5 pts and then made the assumption based on that poll that she would over take him  by winning NV. hE HAS THE aa VOTE AND THAT IS VERY SOLID FOR HIM tHEY WASNTED A REASON TO SUPPORT HIM AND IA GAVE THE REASON.

by BDM 2008-01-17 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

If Clinton wins Nevada, these polls will change.  I think Clinton has a great shot at SC if she win NV.  We shall see, but remember that the RCP averages a day before NH were actually higher for Obama than what we are seeing in SC today.  

by georgep 2008-01-17 05:42PM | 0 recs
Re: New SC McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll

By a 43% to 31% margin, African-American primary voters say that most Americans are racist. By a 57% to 22% margin, white primary voters in South Carolina disagree.

-Rasmussen.

by falcon4e 2008-01-17 06:25PM | 0 recs

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