Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

PPP has released its final poll for NC, which shows Obama ahead by 10. The full release can be found here.

The specific base numbers:

Obama       52
Clinton       42
Undecided   7

Because demographics (specifically age, race, and gender) seem to have more predictive value than anything else, it's worth noting that PPP's sample consists of 35% AA and 56% female. Age distribution breaks down as follows:

18-29...................... .14%
30-45...................... .27%
46-65...................... .42%
Older Than 65........ .18%

And, for those of you who like to predict delegate allocation by congressional district, PPP includes a breakdown of the various area codes. Clinton's strongest area is, unsurprisingly, the 828 area code (which is the appalachian area in western NC). Obama leads rather comfortably every where else.

The poll also includes some interesting info relating to early voting. Specifically, according to PPP's sample, almost 30% of voters have voted early; and, among those who've voted early, Obama leads by 29%. SUSA also provides polling of early voters who've already voted, and in its most recent report, Obama led by 18 among those who have voted. If these numbers are correct, Clinton will have a lot of ground to make up tomorrow. However, because Obama has pushed his supporters to vote early (especially students due to conflicts with exams and summer break), I expect Clinton to perform better tomorrow than she has during the early voting period. This is something to keep in mind when exit polls inevitably leak tomorrow. Exit polls, I assume, will only reflect tomorrow's voting patterns, which may cause exit polls to overestimate Clinton's strength. Just my guess, though.

If you're interested in further information related to early voting, Mark Blumenthal has a nice article over at pollster on NC demographics, in which he shares publicly available data concerning the age/gender of early voters. Specifically, AA voters constitute 40% of the early voting electorate, while women constitute 60%. Age data is not available. Both of these numbers exceed the numbers reflected in every poll model used by pollsters, including the PPP poll cited above. Also, approximately 400,000 people have already voted. That would appear to be at least 1/4 of the primary electorate, but who really knows.

Finally, I highly recommend the Blumenthal article if you're interested in learning more about the demographic assumptions used by various pollsters.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, North Carolina, Primary (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

I thought SUSA was a better poller than PPP, no?

by colebiancardi 2008-05-05 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

PPP is a NC-based polling outfit, so I would trust them more in this instance than otherwise. PPP actually came closest in SC, whereas that was one of SUSA's worst states. But, no one can deny that SUSA has performed pretty well this primary season, with a few exceptions (namely, SC, AL, and MO).

by DPW 2008-05-05 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

Everyone agrees that the PPP is crap. I will take the SUSA any day. Also every other poll is showing a much closer race.

by steve468 2008-05-05 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

Believe what you want to believe. PPP got SC much closer than SUSA, and PPP is based in NC. So, I think PPP's turnout model is likely to be a good one for this state.

by DPW 2008-05-05 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

Zogby +8
Rasmussen +9
Arg +11
SUSA (Last Tuesday's sample) +5

Ia is the only recent poll showing a close race.

by cardboard 1 2008-05-05 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

The early voting numbers don't really provide a good guide to what the overall vote distribution by race will be for the NC primary electorate.

Anyway, basically, HRC's only victory scenario involves her winning 70%+ of the white vote. It's "doable" but not likely, and should black voters make up 37% or more of the NC electorate, it's pretty much a guaranteed Obama win.

by blueflorida 2008-05-05 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP po

So much for the "politics of hope" and unity that bridges racial lines lol

by rossinatl 2008-05-05 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP po

It's sarcasm like this that makes me wonder where anyone went wrong with calling Americans "bitter" and "clingy."

Senator Obama has won white people; he's won working-class white people; he's won educated white people; he's won gay, white people; he's won low information voters and high information voters.

Or perhaps you forget every state west of the Mississippi River or the Chesapeake Primaries.

But cling to the idea that either of these candidates wouldn't be able to bridge the two, evenly divided constituencies to form 270 electoral votes in November.

That's anti-hope and that's anti-unity.

You can be hopeful but you better not be naive and not count your chickens and your constituents, otherwise you're just an idiot running and saying things.

That's what I never get about all the slandering of Senator Obama. "He's just hope" and an "empty suit". But when he gets 400 economists, 300 foreign political advisers and numerous other officials of all different swaths to help him form ideas; when he's calculating and decides to win an election competently by creating a grass roots donor base that funds his campaign entirely; when he decides to run up the score in caucus states while Senator Clinton preaches the line "it'll be over by February 5th"; while he single-handedly defeats the most competent and most powerful political couple of this generation --

SOMEWHERE.

Some-fucking-how, along the line, someone said - "wow this guy has no plans, can't form them and can't close the deal."

Senator Obama closed the deal when he made pledge delegates the barometer for winning this election; when the expected delegate totals were leaked and they exceeded expectations in most places and barely failed in others. He closed the deal when he made this race about attrition and spinning the perception of "overturning" that doesn't really exist but will exist when he crosses the majority-threshold of Pledged Delegates on May 20th, 2008.

That's your nominee; the person who created winning constituencies. Yes, he's a hope-mongerer; he's green around the ears; yes, he's got a crazy preacher; yes, he's cut in line.

But he's beaten the inevitable. He's run a fairly clean campaign and has drawn the most support, the most enthusiasm and the most money in political history.

By all accounts - he's the Democrat's best choice.

And it'll bridge racial lines in November.

by Lord Hadrian 2008-05-05 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP po

"Or perhaps you forget every state west of the Mississippi River or the Chesapeake Primaries."

I'm not sure if you noticed but California and Nevada are West of the Mississippi and Obama lost here.

Texas is also West of Big Muddy and he lost the primary vote there, while the Texas caucus appears to have been heavily gamed.

Once again, Obama fails to win the big, heavily Democratic states and relies on small states with little or no chance of going Blue in November.

by wblynch 2008-05-05 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

Just something I noticed:

In the PPP poll, 3% of people who have already voted are undecided.

That's odd. Just sayin'.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-05-05 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

Yeah, I would imagine that some early voters pressed undecided either because they didn't vote for the national primary election (only voted for the local election), voted for Edwards/other, or they just didn't want to share their preference. I know that at least one person voted no preference because he was disappointed in Obama's denunciation of Wright (see here)

But, yeah, that's a strange data point.

by DPW 2008-05-05 09:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

LOL. It's like saying  I voted but not sure for whom:-)

by Sandeep 2008-05-05 09:35AM | 0 recs
This is pretty consistent with previous

early voting states.  Here's Texas: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea4 73d72e

You can see in the already voted column 2% is undecided.  There's no telling what that undecided or other means to the pollees, but it's consistent nonetheless.

by The Distillery 2008-05-05 09:50AM | 0 recs
He wins women 47 to 46 in this poll.

Whenever he has won the women vote in the past, it has usually been an indicator of a huge win.

by The Distillery 2008-05-05 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: He wins women 47 to 46 in this poll.

Early voting in NC

30% of projected electorate

Obama 63
Clinton 34

He has a huge lead going into the voting tomorrow

Their are 390,000 democrat and independent primary early voter's.

by BDM 2008-05-05 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PPP poll in NC + more NC data

He will win in NC 2moro because the black vote is very high; however, with this high black early vote, could it be that it has reached its crest? I mean, according to Frm. Gov. Hunt on LA Times, he is surprised to see alot of lower income whites come out and vote as well. So, it could be interesting.

But, she won't win there.

by American1989 2008-05-05 10:25AM | 0 recs
Is PPP going to release an IN poll?

by ann0nymous 2008-05-05 10:26AM | 0 recs

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