Can you say, outlier?  This is the first poll I've seen that has Iowa within double digits  The rest of the results seem more or less plausible.

I loved "Still."  The idea is to paint McCain as out of touch and clueless on today's problem.  Judging from the conference call today, this seems to be what they're going with.

I'd prefer a liar narrative, but I thought today's ad was a good start. Am I the only one on this site?

But many disagree on Obama's electoral chances in the fall, particularly Poblano, who's been pretty spot-on with his polling and demographic analysis.

http://www.alternet.org/election08/85549 /

John McCain has gotten a free ride in the press while Clnton has been slinging mud at Obama, giving McCain a 67% approval rating and explaining a lot of these results.

While John McCain is off looking in tough in Iraq (and not having his lies covered because the press likes his BBQ), the Dem primary gets uglier and uglier.

Also, Jerome, you could at least cite the new NBC poll for context instead of throwing down some dixie polls.  It actually has Obama LEADING McCain.  But that would undercut your beautifully crafted end-is-nigh argument.

Chuck Dodd with much more levelheaded analysis:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/03/26/821438.aspx

As for the damage this controversy did or didn't do to Obama, it's a mixed bag. Yes, Obama saw some of his numbers go down slightly among certain voting groups, most notably Republicans. But he's still much more competitive with independent voters when matched up against John McCain than Hillary Clinton is. And he still sports a net-positive personal rating of 49-32, which is down only slightly from two weeks ago, when it was 51-28. Again, the biggest shift in those negative numbers were among Republicans.

On one of the most critical questions we've been tracking for a few months, Obama showed resilience. When asked if the three presidential candidates could be successful in uniting the country if they were elected president, 60 percent of all voters believed Obama could be successful at doing this, 58 percent of all voters said McCain could unite the country while only 46 percent of voters said the same about Clinton. All three candidates saw dips on this issue, by the way. In January, 67 percent thought Obama could unite the country; 68 percent thought McCain could do it; and 55 percent said Clinton would be able to pull it off.  

The fact that all three dropped equally in the last three months is a sign that the campaign is becoming more ideological and partisan.

In the head-to-head matchups, there weren't huge shifts in the numbers, with Obama and Clinton dead even at 45 percent in the national Democratic primary matchup (a slight increase for Obama from early March). In the general-election matchups, Obama led McCain by 2 points, and McCain led Clinton by 2 points; all margin of error results and nothing to get too excited over.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=4805

I've never liked the line 'the Clinton's will do anything to win'.  Hillary Clinton won't, for instance, renounce her support of the Iraq war or get rid of an obviously incompetent Mark Penn as the captain of her campaign.  And many politicians face a similar incentive structure to the Clinton's and are just as ruthless.  More accurately the line should be 'the Clinton's will turn their back on you for short-term political gain'.

It's the TV model of politics.  The characteristic of a TV politician is that they assume that (a) the electorate has no memory, (b) short-term image is everything, (c) liberal politics get you destroyed, and (d) the audience can't talk back.

That's why Clinton lied about Bosnia, wouldn't admit it, stabbed Wright in the back, won't go back on her obviously stupid war vote, and appears completely overwhelmed by the criticisms she's getting from the non-advocacy group liberal audience on the internet.

I don't think this stuff is hurting Obama, but it's probably damaging Clinton's ability to operate as a powerful figure in the future.

A much more believable accounting of Clinton's recent behavior.

I think I'm pointing out the obvious here, but it seems like Obama supporters have been returning to MyDD over the past month or so.  Bob Johnson's diaries probably have a lot to do with that.

I agree with the substance of this comment, if not the way it was presented.  There's a good argument in there, but try not to make it so personal and profane.

So Hillary's motives for bringing up Wright are altruistic?  Please, don't insult the intelligence of the electorate.

Perhaps you can explain why Hillary is now so chummy with Richard Mellon Scaife, and distributing American Spectator hit pieces to the press labeling an Obama foreign policy adviser an "anti-Semite."

I'm sure there's quite a reasonable explanation for this, after all, she's just distancing herself from anti-Semitism.

If Barack Obama's campaign was out distributing National Review stories about Hillary Clinton, you'd be screaming bloody murder.

Just like her Iraq War vote, which was not a mistake and does not need to be apologized for.

This type of "I'm never wrong" mentality is just like Bush's "I'm the decider" persona.  Admit you were wrong, and move on.

Just a question.  One typically doesn't find white resentment comments on progressive blogs.

It's a bit premature for gloom.  Once the nomination gets decided, all progressive firepower will be trained on McCain.  The Iraq War and economic collapse aren't going anywhere, and can't be hidden from.  The mood of the country is much different than in 2004.  Right now, McCain is getting a free ride as Obama and Clinton continue to slug it out.  However, that won't always be the case.  I'm of the opinion that Clinton should get out sooner rather than later since she has almost no chance of winning of that thing, but that's a minority opinion around here.  However, McCain is still an incredibly bad candidate.  Once the focus is firmly on McCain, and on his disastrous policies and lack of economic knowledge, he'll come back down to earth.  This is as high as his approval is likely to get.

Let me re-write my first two sentences:

Just because Obama doesn't fit your mode of identity politics shouldn't send you into McCain's camp.  Obama's policies are incredibly similar to Clinton's.

Sorry, I haven't had my coffee yet this morning ;)

Just because Obama doesn't fit your mode of identity politics should send you into McCain's camp.  Obama's policies are incredibly similar to McCain's.  If you're a fan of preemptive warfare, strict constructionist Supreme Court justices, and tax cuts for the rich at the expense of everyone else, by all means, vote for McCain.  But I'm going to suppose that your membership on this site means you at least have somewhat progressive stands on the issues, and a vote for McCain would a complete betrayal of those ideals.

She raised $35 million in February, and yet is still in debt?  Obama has been outspending her pretty substantially as well.  One has to wonder who's doing the budgeting for the Clinton Campaign.  After such a strong fundraising month, she should at least have SOME money left over.

10 second clips are much easier targets.