the stimulus bill had been larger and better-targeted. But there's no question that it helped.
Interestingly, Chris Bowers argues that; employment gains throughout 1994 didn't prevent that debacle:
The cost of living, as well as the net worth of investments and homes, will also impact more people than unemployment, or even the broader U6 measure that includes underemployment. Even if U6 shows one in six people underemployed, underemployed, or disgruntled and no longer looking for work, all of these other economic measures will impact a higher percentage of the population, and an even higher percentage of the midterm electorate (which skews older and wealthier). Further, Obama and Democrats actually poll better among the unemployed than among the employed, so those are not even the people who need the most convincing to vote for Democrats.
This isn't to say that unemployment is entirely irrelevant in determining election outcomes--I believe it is. However, it is not the only metric, or even the most important metric, affecting those outcomes. If Democrats are going to recover before the November elections, they need not only for jobs to continue to be added to the economy, but also for the majority of those people who are already employed to experience improved personal finances. The direction of the objective economic conditions faced by the entire electorate, not just the unemployed, will be the driving factor in November.
Someone on BBC pointed out that the Queen goes first to the prime minister to ask if he can form a government. If he says no, then the Queen asks the leader of the opposition. So even though the Tories have far more seats, Brown/Labour will get first crack at forming a government.
Sounds like the Conservatives are not interested in a coalition with the LibDems.
but that's where we are. LibDems saw their vote share go up only 1 percent and their number of seats drop.
Labour suffered its lowest share of the vote in a long time and would be short of a majority even in coalition with LibDems.
Conservatives failed to win an outright majority despite Brown's unpopularity. In a minority government scenario, Tories will have to implement some very unpopular economic/budget policies and then face the voters again in a year or two.
They seem to have peaked a couple of weeks too early. I think it was a mistake for Clegg to indicate that he might try to form a government with Consevatives--Labour has been pushing the idea that a vote for the LibDems is a vote for Cameron as prime minister.
That said, it is hard to convey how incredible it is for the Guardian to have endorsed the LibDems. The Guardian has historically been a huge institutional support for Labour.
Reid's been running ads for months--I think since December--and it hasn't moved his numbers much, if at all. I just don't know if he can change voters' opinions of him in the six months left before the election.
But the more he can keep Lowden's chickens out there in the public's mind, the better.