I bet we go 0-3 next Tuesday. Forcing a runoff in Arkansas is possible, but I just don't think Sestak or Conway will get over the top.
I don't understand why so many people in PA and KY want to nominate people who will lose the general election. It seems so obvious that Sestak and Conway are more electable, in addition to being better potential senators.
Waxman-Markey only barely passed in the House, with several Democrats feeling it didn't go far enough. I doubt there are 218 votes in the House for this kind of bill, even if you assume a few extra Blue Dogs vote for it because it sucks so much.
I reject your premise that because Obama is choosing Kagan, it would have been impossible for anyone to the left of Kagan to be confirmed. What makes you think Obama desired to nominate the most liberal judge he could get away with?
If he gets a chance to replace Ginsburg, he will probably move the court even further to the right.