Month 2 of Tracking the Top 50 House  Pick up Chances

    So this is the second month of tracking the Top 50 House Pick Up Chances in the country. What is the most amazing about a project like this is the amount of new information there already is to switch decisions  about races. We have about  7 votes in the House that could be used  against certain Republicans in the House . We also have a new DCCC list of where they are looking to go in terms of targeting. In addition to the information from last month   I will include change as well reason for change

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
 Republican Tim Walberg
 06 Winning Percentage  51%
 04 Bush Percentage  54%
 Reason for Weakness
 Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked  will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

Change No Change
Reason: Tim Walberg has already cast his lot like the Right Wing Republican we expected including a no vote on the Minimum Wage,  the only issue is that lots of Republicans now seem to be circling  as well.

2. PA 15
 Republican Charlie Dent
 06 Winning Percentage   53%
 04 Bush Percentage 50%
 Reasons for Weakness
 Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won .  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.  

Change  No change
Reason Charlie Dent remains vulnerable and  the DCCC now list him a such. This race will remain very hot
3.. FL 8
 Republican Ric Keller
 06 Winning Percentage 53%
 04 Bush Percentage  55%
 Reasons for Weakness
 You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

Change Up
Reason: On reflection Ric Keller seems even more vulnerable, and his rushing out to oppose Iraq would make sense for someone more vulnerable.

4.  NV 3    
 Republican Jon Porter
 06 Winning Percentage 48%
 04 Bush Percentage 50%
 Reasons for Weakness
 As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47%  with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
Change Down
Reason: Keller had to move up and therefore Porter had to move down  He remains  very vulnerable and is DCCC rated as such

5. WA 8
 Republican Dave Reichert  
 06 Winning Percentage  ?
 04 Bush Percentage  48%
 Reasons for Weakness
 A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change None
Reason. Reichert remains a Republican in a Democrat district who by an extremely small percentage and who just seems vulnerable  

6. AZ 1
 Republican Rick Renzi
 06 Winning Percentage 51%
 04 Bush Percentage 54%
 Reasons for Weakness
 Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.

Change Up
Reason: The DCCC lists it as vulnerable because of ethics issues that alone should make him more vulnerable.

7. CA 4
 Republican John Doolittle
 06 Winning Percentage 49%
 04 Bush Percentage 61%
 Reasons for Weakness
 A congressperson never wants to get  less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: The increased likelihood of Charlie Brown's running again  makes Doolittle vulnerable as does the DCCC ranking  the district in its  ethically challenged catergory.

8. NJ 7
 Republican Mike Ferguson
 06 Winning Percentage  49%
 04 Bush Percentage 53%
 Reasons for Weakness
 Another Republican under 50% spells danger  for him. He also  is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority  for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.   Ferguson's position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason: The Democratic Convention in Denver will make beating Marilyn Musgrave more difficult he drop allows this district to move up.

9.NC 8
 Republican Robin Hayes
 06 Winning Percentage 50%
 04 Bush Percentage  54%
 Reasons for Weakness
 Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change Up
Reason: Same as above

10. CO 4
 Republican Marilyn Musgrave
 06 Winning Percentage 46%
 04 Bush Percentage 58%
 Reasons for Weakness
 46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason: In a traditionally Republican part of a trending Democratic State, CO 4 is likely to re-act slightly against the Democratic Tide. This just make beating Musgrave more difficult and it is more important to win Colorado in the Presidential than beating Marilyn Musgrave.

11. MI 9
 Republican Joe Knollenberg
 06 Winning Percentage 52%
 04 Bush Percentage 51%
 Reasons for Weakness
 This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons  for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.   He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.
Change None
Reason, If anything this spot holds the best because it is now a DCCC target.

12.  IL 14
 Republican Dennis Hastert
 06 Winning Percentage 60%
 04 Bush Percentage 55%
 Reasons for Weakness
 How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will  open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic  of an era that is gone. Illinois is  also a state trending clearly our way.   This is a great  chance.
Change None
Reason: Looking at Dennis Hastert's sad face it is hard to believe he will run again and open seats are generally easier to get.
13.   PA 18
 Republican Tim Murphy
 06 Winning Percentage 58%
 04  Bush Percentage  54%
 Reasons for Weakness  
 Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.   This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was  recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason: The scandal is now being addressed by the DCCC edging this seat up a spot.

14.  OH 16
 Republican Ralph Regula
 06 Winning Percentage 59%
 04 Bush Percentage  54%
 Reasons for Weakness
 When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change down
Reason The Murphy Scandal  moves Regula down a spot no real change.
 15 .  IL 6
 Republican Peter Roskam
 06 Winning Percentage 51%  
 04 Bush Percentage  53%
 Reasons for Weakness
 This was the DCCC's greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change None
Reason: Roskam has voted like a right winger when his district is far more reasonable. He has to be considered a prime target

16. PA 6
 Republican Jim Gelach
 06 Winning Percentage   51%
 04 Bush Percentage  48%
 Reasons for Weakness
 51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been.

17. NY 25
 Republican Jim Walsh
 06 Winning Percentage  51%
 04 Bush Percentage   48%
 Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.   As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change None
Reason  Same basic reasons, he has been voting with Democrats on everything but stem cell research.

18. NM 1
 Republican Heather Wilson
 06 Winning Percentage 50%
 04 Bush Percentage  48%
 Reasons for Weakness
 Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change None
Reason She is just a vulnerable as ever but is still as skilled as ever. She is also voting along with Democrats and making noise on Iraq.

19. WY AL
 Republican Barbara Cubin
 06 Winning Percentage   48%
 04 Bush Percentage  69%
 Reasons for Weakness
 No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.  
Change None
Reason Cubin keeps voting like a right winger and her value in the minority still drops. Although the Republican inability to really oppose Democrats so far in the House makes a primary less likely no one wants to run to be powerless.

20.  OH 15
 Republican Deborah Pyrce
 06 Winning Percentage  50%
 04  Bush Percentage  50%
 Reasons for Weakness
 If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but  completely winnable.
Change None
Reason: The DCCC keeps her on the target list and her district might be more Democratic in a Presidential but 06 was a great year for Ohio Democrats.  She is already leaving leadership aside and voting with Democrats a ton.

21.  CT 4
 Republican Chris Shays
 06 Winning Percentage   51%
 04  Bush Percentage 46%
 Reasons for Weakness
 In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change None
Reason: Shays voted against Medicare change but otherwise is voting with most of the Democratic agenda. The DCCC still seems interested.

22.  IL 10
 Republican Mark Kirk
 06 Winning Percentage   53%
 04  Bush Percentage 47%
 Reasons for Weakness
 The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.  

Change None  
Reason: Mark Kirk is clearly leaving his leadership days behind  and voting with Democrats . This makes it easier for him to paint himself as moderate but it is also clearly as the DCCC said

23.  NY 13
 Republican Vito Fosella  
 06 Winning Percentage  57%
 04  Bush Percentage  55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics  violations. New York's Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot.  

24.  PA 3
 Republican Phil English
 06 Winning Percentage 54%
 04  Bush Percentage 53%
 Reasons for Weakness
 This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor's abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reasons: Vito's  weakness is just slightly greater.

25. MI 11
 Republican Thaddeus McCotter
 06 Winning Percentage 54%  
 04 Bush Percentage 53%
 Reasons for Weakness
 This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding.  That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
Change Down
Reason: Just moved down a spot.

Dropped out of Top 25
Steve Chabot

Entered
Vito Fossella

26.  OH 1
 Republican Steve Chabot
 06 Winning Percentage 53%
 04 Bush Percentage   51%

27.  NJ 5
 Republican Scott Garrett
 06 Winning Percentage  55%
 04  Bush Percentage  57%

28. IL 11
 Republican Jerry Weller
 06 Winning Percentage 55%
 04  Bush Percentage   53%

29.  IA 4
 Republican Tom Latham
 06 Winning Percentage  57%
 04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
 Republican Peter King
 06 Winning Percentage   56%
 04  Bush Percentage 53%

31.  OH 2
 Republican Jean Schmidt
 06 Winning Percentage 51%  
 04  Bush Percentage 64%

32.  VA 11
 Republican Tom Davis
 06 Winning Percentage 55%  
 04  Bush Percentage 50%

33.  NY 29
 Republican Randy Kuhl
 06 Winning Percentage  52%
 04  Bush Percentage 56%

34.  FL 1O
 Republican Bill Young
 06 Winning Percentage  66%  
 04  Bush Percentage  50%

35.   CA 26
 Republican David Drier
 06 Winning Percentage 57%  
 04  Bush Percentage  55%

36.  OH 3
 Republican Mike Turner
 06 Winning Percentage 59%  
 04  Bush Percentage  54%

37.  FL 24
 Republican Tom Feeney
 06 Winning Percentage   58%
 04 Bush Percentage  55%

38. DE AL
 Republican Mike Castle
 06 Winning Percentage 57%  
 04  Bush Percentage  46%

39.  NJ 3
 Republican Jim Saxton
 06 Winning Percentage  58%
 04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
 Republican Michelle Bachmann
 06 Winning Percentage  50%
 04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06    Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage  58%

42.  OH 12
 Republican Pat Tiberi
 06 Winning Percentage 58%  
 04  Bush Percentage  51%

43.
NY 23
 Republican John McHugh
 06 Winning Percentage  63%
 04  Bush Percentage 51%

44.  OH 14
 Republican Steve LaTourette
 06 Winning Percentage   58%
 04  Bush Percentage  53%

45.  NJ 2
 Republican Frank LoBiondo
 06 Winning Percentage  62%
 04  Bush Percentage  50%

46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning  Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%

Reason Likely to be open

 47. WI 1
 Republican Paul Ryan
 06 Winning Percentage   63%
 04  Bush Percentage 54%

48.
MN 3
 Republican Jim Ramstad  
 06 Winning Percentage   65%
 04  Bush Percentage  51%

49 .  ID 1
 Republican Bill Salli
 06 Winning Percentage 50%
 04 Bush Percentage 69%

50.  MI 4
 Republican Dave Camp
 06 Winning Percentage   60%
 04  Bush Percentage  55%

Dropped out of Top 50
Ilena Ros-Lethinen
Fred Upton

Enter Top 50
Thelma Drake
Tom Tancredo