• Note Andy Kohut's interview at pollster.com.
    What I learned from Paul Perry - and I keep going back to him because he taught me everything I know about this - is that what you should be prepared to do is to have a way of measuring all of the things that you're interested in covering and be able to look at those measurements in the current election relative to your experience in previous elections. And we try to do that. The one time I didn't do that was in 2002, because I was pre-occupied with other things. On an ad hoc basis, I kicked out one of my traditional questions out of the turn-out scale and it really hurt our projection. It made it too Democratic. I won't do that again.
  • comment on a post Second Anniversary Thread over 8 years ago


  • comment on a post Aristocratic Right Wing Blogosphere Stagnating over 9 years ago
    of course, not all blogs take Blogads. Our small spin-off, The Next Hurrah, does not, but would not alter your numbers any. Many of the smaller blogs are labors of love/hobbies/etc not bent on building communities as much as communication.

    In our case, between MyDD and Daily Kos and BooTrib, there seems no need to create YA community, since we never really left the larger ones. Had there been no larger ones, we'd on the one hand take a different approach, and on the other, prolly not exist.

    The other aspect of the metaview I find fascinating is the rise of the specialty blogs... Juan Cole (historian), Mystery Pollster (polling), Brad DeLong (economics), Effect Measure (public health) and even TPM (the original - journalism) and Washington Note (foreign affairs) in which the primary specialty of the author has contributed enormously to the progressive dialogue. Have you kept track or looked at that piece of the internets?

  • not every poster/blogger is or was a Dean supporter. While few were Kerry's natural constituency, most rallied behind him given the alternative. Gephardt and Edwards had their supporters. But there were a healthy number of Clark supporters (Armando at dKos, e.g.) and enough non-Dean support to make the primary season quite interesting... and somewhat flammable.

    Dean brought in some of the 'alienateds' who otherwise would not have voted D or voted at all. But in the end, George W Bush has been the most powerful recruiting tool, and a great unifier... of the Democrats, progressives and liberals.

  • Kagro's a wonder (but on vacation this week). Don't miss RonK's Failsafe Option on how things might go to the brink... and be pulled back.

    Frist starts the process by asserting that debate on the Owen confirmation has become dilatory and constitutionally impermissible.

    Cheney (presiding) rules in Frist's favor.

    Reid raises a point of order that this is a constitutional question, and is therefore debatable (and subject to filibuster).

    Cheney rules against Reid's point of order.

    Reid appeals the ruling of the chair.

    Frist makes a non-debatable motion to table Reid's appeal.

    In the "main sequence" Nuclear Option scenario, Republicans then either muster 50 votes to table Reid's appeal (proceeding to the confirmation vote), or Reid musters 51 votes (defeating the motion to table the appeal), and prevailing on the appeal with the same 51 votes (preserving the filibuster and the tradition of rulefulness in Senate proceedings). But at this juncture, there is an alternative.

    With the aid of six GOP "prudent defectors", Reid can win his appeal of the ruling of the Chair (as above). Debate on the underlying constitutional question ensues.

    Reid can forestall the vote on this question indefinitely, by filibuster, but he can't defeat it or make it go away -- except with support of six Republicans.

    If one or more of the Six withholds this support, the Senate remains in a true "Mr. Smith" filibuster, with neither side disposed to yield.

  • comment on a post Abu Ghraib Two over 9 years ago
    More Evidence Of Major GOP Rift
  • on a comment on Spent Capital over 9 years ago
    Foolish analysis with a tin ear to the American public (an attack on American soil coupled with a huge propaganda effort has had an effect much different than Vietnam or Korea). Foolish analogy to kool-aid drinking (what I wrote was not a slavish defense of Kerry, who had plenty of flaws).

    You seem not to understand the real difficulties any opposition candidate would have had.

  • on a comment on Bush & Republican Congress Crash over 9 years ago
    see Mystery Pollster's complete series on weighting by party ID (CBS has been good about publishing their numbers, the other pollsters are coming along and agreeing to the practice).
  • on a comment on Times are changing over 9 years ago
    they are in terms of numbers, but they match my conversations with moderate Rs who are horrified.

    Doesn't matter what Chris Matthews feels about it. No one watches him.

  • on a comment on Times are changing over 9 years ago
    but the WSJ is not. 80-20

    Was Congress right to intervene in the dispute over removing a Florida woman's feeding tube?

    Yes 1823 votes (20%)       
    No 7233 votes (80%)   

  • on a comment on Spent Capital over 9 years ago
    the dynamic of running aqainst a war president doesn't mean voters will vote their approval ratings. Dump on Kerry all you wish. Doesn't change reality.
  • comment on a post A Small Victory on Polling Transparency over 9 years ago
    but still there's more... this is a critique of the Freeman paper's statistics by Rick Brady and can be found here.

    I agree the bigger story is the push towards transparency, one step at a time. Thanks for your efforts.

  • comment on a post Exit Poll Update over 9 years ago
    to clarify timing of release of their data (following Mystery Pollster's story). She is inundated with mail, but she wrote back:

    "The data sets are being databased into ASCII and SPSS formats for all elections in 50 states plus the national survey by one person. It took over 1 year to prepare for the delivery of this information, with only one person working on this task the 3 months that is projected is timely. The data does not belong to Edison/Mitofsky, The National Election Pool of media are the deciding party in when the data will be sent to Roper."

    NEP/the networks are where pressure needs to be placed to get moving any faster. In the end, I don't know what we are going to learn from the exercise. But it has to be done.

  • comment on a post Thank You Chris And Jerome! over 9 years ago
    Much appreciated.
  • comment on a post On the Republicans 40 yard line over 9 years ago
    (pro-Rob Simmons but didn't really talk about Simmons at all).


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