Turn Florida Blue! +1 in Mason-Dixon Poll

We got to get Florida switched to swell Obama's Electoral lead.

Mason Dixon polled this past Sunday thru Tuesday night and they show Obama ahead 45-44%.

The only way I can access the poll so far is through the polltracker on TPM. Click on the poll on the top of the list and it brings up a PDF:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsm emo.com/polltracker/

I personally don't hold Mason Dixon in very high regard--they are not as accurate as some claim them to be. But they usually aren't kind to democrats in the South, and Florida is at least partially in the South. So here, this pollster, this place, a 1 point lead may portend something more.

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PA, OH, FL: O +7, +1, -4 (Quinn Poll)

Read about it!

It will be nice to see the electoral maps that rely on the most recent poll flipping to Ohio (get right on that Jerome!). A key take away from this poll:

By a 44-39 percent margin, Florida voters want a Democrat in the White House. Ohio voters want a Democrat 44-35 percent and Pennsylvania voters are seeing blue 50-32 percent.

So Obama has room to grow, dispelling the smearing portrayals of him foisted by the rethugs, such as with the convention appearance last night, will likely help with that effort.

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Delegate VP Poll: Clinton 28 Biden 6; 3 at 4

Note the poll's start date is July 16, which explains how Edwards is able to score 4%.

Richardson, Bayh, Webb, Sebelius, Kaine, and Clark also score in the single digits.

Methodology is phone interviews and online, but given the fixed sample should be reasonably accurate with +/- 3 MOE.

Interesting stuff--don't know that it weighs at all on Obama's decision, but since it seems decidedly not to be Clinton, at least Biden would be the next most popular.

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SUSA Indiana: Obama 48 McCain 47

That according to a poll just released.

As a stalwart republican state, Obama having any lead in the state at all bodes very well. I wouldn't rule out his taking  the state, although I think it more likely he ends up about 3-5 points behind.

Nevertheless, a most encouraging result. No let's hope SUSA doesn't get in too much trouble for robopolling in Indiana, where the practice is legally forbidden.

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Another Reliable Nat'l Poll Shows Obama +7 on McCain

That would be a Quinnipiac,, taken May 8-12, 1745 registered voters, MOE+/- 2.4%.

Once again Obama outperforms Clinton against McCain, although barely:

Either one of the two Democratic contenders, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, leads the likely Republican presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 47 - 40 percent while Sen. Clinton is up 46 - 41 percent.

Among dems only Obama leads Clinton 45-41%. The two candidates do equally well among white voters vs McCain; Obama outperforms Clinton by a cumulative 12% (87-4 vs. 79-8)among African Americans.

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New Quinn Poll PA: "No Noticeable . . . ?"

Although they credit Clinton with "stalling" Obama, the margin is the same as the last poll, 6 points, with Clinton leading 50-44. The poll was just posted and there is an error in the descriptive text: "There was no noticeable in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments." We can assume "movement" is what is missing, but it will be interesting to see the quotes in the press.

These results yield from a large sample and there is a low MOE: "From April 9 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,103 Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points."

Check out the full results.

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FL-Gov, Guess Who Has It Down to 6 Points?

Your favorite and mine Strategic Vision just released polls for FL Sen and Gov. Pollster.com just posted them Nelson leads Harris 59-33 and this confirms he will break 60%, something I have doubted until now, beleiving that Harris would bottom out around 40%

But who cares really? In the governors race Crist leads 50-44! That means that there is a 70-80% chance that the margin in the race is 3-6 points, based on consistent patterns attributable to SV polls.

Watch that one close dramatically!

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