Analysis of Gallup: Palin Bounce Confined to South

Gallup has released weekly breakdowns of Candidate Support by Region for the week of Sept 1-7, which includes the RNC convention.  My own analysis comparing these numbers to the previous two weeks (Aug 25-31: Post-DNC convention and Aug 18-24: Pre-DNC convention), it's easy to see:


The Palin bounce in national polls is being driven by a response in the South.

Even better news - over both conventions:


Obama actually gained in the crucial Midwest and West.

The Palin bounce was largely contained to the South (+11) -- states that Barack does not need to win the election.  It was also fairly substantial in the East (+6), but the East is largely locked up for Obama.  The bounce was smallest in the crucial Midwest (+4) and nil in the West.

Over both conventions, McCain lost ground in both the Midwest and West -- areas that contain the crucial battleground states.

It's pretty hard to spin this as "good news for McCain."

Here are the raw numbers:

One final piece of comfort.  The Palin bounce is nowhere near as large as the bounce Bush got over Kerry in 2004.  

From RealClearPolitics(plus some additional info boxes from me):

Over the spread of both conventions, Bush picked up 6 points from 44.5 to 50.5, while Kerry lost 2.5 from 45.5 to 43.  The net bounce overall for Bush was 8.5 points.

Today, from the week before the DNC convention to the week of the GOP convention, Gallup shows Obama picked up 2 points among RVs (45 to 47, while McCain stayed flat 45 to 45).  The 2008 net convention bounce is +2 for Obama!

In other words, we're far ahead of 2004.

This is not meant to lull you into complacency.  We've still got miles to go (as the RCP chart shows from 2004, lots of things happen after the conventions).  We need tons volunteer groundwork to seal the deal.

Hopefully, this will make some of our more nervous colleagues feel a bit more, what's the word I'm looking for?  Oh yeah.  Hope.

Crossposted from this diary at the Daily Kos.  

Tags: Barack Obama, bounce, gallup, John McCain, polls, president, Sarah Palin (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

I have been thinking about this for a few days now

The bounce seemed substantial, but I didn't see any evidence of how the game had really changed significantly.

What I was thinking was that what the RNC and Palin did was galvanize the base and drive up excitement in states that McCain was going to win anyways, while in places like the midwest, where I am, we're all too familiar with Palin's type, and don't treat hockey moms with any sort of reverence (I live in Minnesota, c'mon).

Last night, before I went to sleep, it occured to me that, if this thing is close and McCain manages to keep the Palin buzz going for two straight months, it might be Obama winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote.  The backlash would be loud, and the conservative media would use it as a reason not to cooperate with President Obama, but the schadenfreude would be pretty satisfying.

by Dracomicron 2008-09-10 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I have been thinking about this for a few days

I could be wrong, but I expect the Palin buzz to fade more quickly (and harder) than a shot of cheap tequila.

by Dave 2008-09-10 07:51AM | 0 recs
Dear South

We hope you don't mind the rest of the country dragging you out of the 19th century and into the 21st.

Regards,

Rest of the US

by activatedbybush 2008-09-10 07:44AM | 0 recs
Good but don't get overconfident

The West is pumped up by California/Washington/Oregon and the Midwest by Illinois.  I am feeling better about things today as the bounce begins to unbounce.  I fully expect Obama to have 3-5 point leads in a week or two.  The question is what happens next.

The entire campaign has been Obama pulls to large lead, McCain surges back to a tie, Obama reopens the lead.  With McCain's camp's mishandling of the Bridge to Nowhere lie - hey McCain, when they have video of it, you can either let it drop or hear about it over and over and over again for the duration of the election - I'm feeling pretty good about the next week's polls, but then we see what the response is.

Of course McCain is constantly burning bridges which means that fewer people are going to rally to his defense.

by thezzyzx 2008-09-10 08:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Analysis of Gallup: Palin Bounce Confined to S

Delusional....

by M1513 2008-09-10 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Analysis of Gallup: Palin Bounce Confined to S

Brilliant...

by Dave 2008-09-10 10:57AM | 0 recs

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