Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

by danwalter, Sat Jul 01, 2006 at 10:33:21 PM EDT

Kweisi Mfume leads Congressman Ben Cardin 31 to 25 percent according to a new Washington Post poll.

"Cardin, a 10-term congressman from Baltimore, trails Mfume in part because nearly half of Maryland's registered voters say they don't know who he is. In Prince George's and Montgomery counties, the poll shows, 66 percent of voters have no opinion of him."

Joe Trippi, who has been working for Kweisi Mfume for more than a year, says the poll confirms that Mfume's efforts to take his message to the people through his numerous visits to grass roots activists throughout the state is paying off, and that voters are hungry for more than the play-it-safe message that party establishment candidates can offer. "When people hear Kweisi Mfume talk about 'speaking truth to power' they get energized and feel empowered again. It certainly resonates much more than the business-as-usual talk coming from beltway insiders. People like what Kweisi Mfume has to say because it's a refreshing change from the status quo."

Tags: cardin, Democrat, Maryland, mfume, Primary, Sen-MD, Senate (all tags)

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

So, who should we be rooting for? I mean I know when Sarbanes retired he endorsed Mfumbe but then there were the sec scandal accusations.

This seems to come down to issues, whihc one is more progressive and stands the fimrest for what they beleive in?

by Trowaman 2006-07-01 11:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

sarbanes endorsed mfume? i never heard that

by yomoma2424 2006-07-02 10:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

I hope Mfume wins the primary.

by illinois062006 2006-07-02 01:16AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Either one will win the general election. Ehlrich polls will pull down Steele's popularity due to Steele being Ehlrich's LT. Gov.

by mleflo2 2006-07-02 04:26AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Don't underestimate Steele. As a Marylander, it's been pretty clear to me that despite his moronic Holocaust remarks, Steele is a remarkably dangerous guy, much more dangerous than Ehrlich. He appeals to conservative white Catholics just as much as to the black community. He can definately put together a winning campaign.

Moreover, both of his opponents have serious flaws that can be exploited. Mfume is more progressive and has more name rec now, but he also has no money and it sounds like he ran the NAACP like his own private fiefdom. I don't really care if he had 5 illegitimate children 30 years ago, but he has recently been accused of nepotism and sexual favoritism during his stewardship of the NAACP. He's a guy that has almost no way to appeal to the majority of the white democratic community. Cardin has the experience for the job, and he certainly has more than enough money to buy name rec (making this WP poll kind of useless). He also isn't really as liberal as the state of Maryland deserves, and he has no appeal to the black democratic community.

In short, there is good reason to be unenthusiastic about both of these guys, and there's good reason to think this senate seat is in danger. They both jumped in while FAR better guys like Elijah Cummings and my rep, Chris Van Hollen were considering running. If either of those reps were the nominee now, this race would be over. I'll vote for the dem nominee, which probably will be Cardin, but I'll do it without any enthusiasm.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 06:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

I'd be curious about a Jindal effect, where Republican voters decide not to vote for Steele.

by Matt Stoller 2006-07-02 07:41AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

It's possible that the people in Gilchrist and Bartlett's districts could stay home rather than vote for Steele. I doubt it, however. Both Cardin and Mfume would be far more offensive to their sensabilities. Steele is conservative, far more conservative than even the "moderate" Ehrlich, and I've seen no sign that white republican voters are unenthusiastic about Steele. Quite the opposite, in fact.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 08:12AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

I will wager you a little bet. I will bet you that the numbers for Steele are lower on election day than they are now.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 09:22AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

I obviously don't want Steele to win, but I'll take that bet.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 10:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Well it's a fool's bet- so what's the wager? Nearly every poll on these sorts of thing favor my position- namely race- despite what people say - matters. Or to put it another way- I can't imagine in a state where race matters on the progressive side, that white conservatives this close to dixie (and yes I have spent some time in MD when I was in DC) would simply ignore it. They will say one verbally- and go pull the lever or not show up to indicate another. th eonly way race doesn't matter if both candidates are black- and then in that case I would still predict a lower turn out.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 10:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Race may matter, but in Maryland when it comes to Steele I don't think its going to matter as much as you think it will. Steele has made his entire political career out of being an inoffensive, non-polarizing guy despite his ultraconservative stands. The rural counties had absolutely no problem pulling the lever for Ehrlich and Steele in 2002.

I think you're looking at this the wrong way, though. The most important problem isn't that Steele will pull a great deal of black votes from the democrats, but that black voters will stay home instead. African Americans may (hopefully) be totally unimpressed with Steele, but they may balk at voting for the democratic ticket which would contain Cardin, O'Malley and the execrable WDS. Anthony Brown may not be enough to persuade the African-American vote to turn out. If Mfume was the nominee, that problem would be mitigated, but then what I said above (Steele's popularity with whites) comes into play.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 11:30AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

if this were any other part of the country, your argument would have more sway- but I grew up in the area. I know the politcs pretty well there. Admittedly I was in VA, but I was in MD a lot and I have a lot of friends there. I am not afraid of black voters staying home. MD has a greater precentage of black wealth and middle class black people than a lot of places. More importantly- the uncle tom like moves of Steele such as hiring a guy who ran willie horton ads (which to this day pisses me and a lot other black folk off) will hurt Steele a lot. If our side is smart- they will keep harping on the oreo factor because it will work (ask Corey Booker for the reasons why they work) AND I would do it without worrying about Steele whining too because it just makes him look bad to keep fixating ont he subject.

Steele is popular in theory with the white conservatives. There are somethings that you can't culivate no matter how much you agree with them. Ask Al Keyes.

I know everyone likes to think we ae beyond race- but its still there. It's all about choice of language, where you ask someone who they support ,etc. White voters are just as effected - like I said if Mfumes' problems as have been discussed are split where blacks support him and white progressives support the other guy- then I don't think the dynamics of my neighbor state have changed that much since I lived there.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 11:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Well, you've stated your opinion of the campaign, and I've stated mine. We'll just have to see how it turns out.

"If our side is smart- they will keep harping on the oreo factor because it will work (ask Corey Booker for the reasons why they work) AND I would do it without worrying about Steele whining too because it just makes him look bad to keep fixating ont he subject."

I don't really see why it makes us look good to focus on the "oreo factor" while it makes Steele look bad to focus on it.

"There are somethings that you can't culivate no matter how much you agree with them. Ask Al Keyes."

Keyes and Steele's style and demeanor are entirely different.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 11:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

we wouldn't be focusing on the oreo factor. a lot of this I should point out is what would play out in the black media- ie, the black radio stations, etc which most msm doesn't cover but which we hear. in 2001- the msm in nyc didn't see one need never the dems mayor defeat coming- and yet the black and latino media here said after the dem engaged in racial act that ther ewould be hell to pay. and there was. you need not talk about it openly in the larger campaign to get it out in the particular community you would want to reach.

if they were smart- which a Democrat being smart is a rarity- they would allow proxies to do it with no connection to the campaign. but of course, that would be totlaly wrong b/c that would be too much like Karl rove even if the arguments against steel are factually correct. and, none of us would want to use tactics that could actually favor us.

as for the whole style thing- I think you don't accept the impact of race. You seem to want to think that personalityor idealogy trumps this in politics. It doesn't. it only trumps it when race is not a factor. two black. two whites. not if there is oen white, one black. poll after poll when stacked up agaisnt actual results has shown this. same kind of issues often seen with gender. there is nothing so unique about MD that would suggest otherwise- indeed the only data on race that we have- suggest the opposite even for the most open minded among them.

also the polling out of the state indicates that we do have a lead right?

that's why I question your arguments, and where I would like to see some counter arguments to get a since where I am wrong.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 12:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Steele's son goes to my former (conservative and predominantly white) Catholic high school. Steele is a big hit with everyone there. Where I feel you are wrong is your insistence that where Steele is concerned, race is the most important factor. In person Steele is a charming, inoffensive guy, and I have never seen any white conservative/republican in Maryland EVER express concern about Steele's race. My father, who has voted straight democratic his entire life, remarked that Steele was the kind of person people like him could vote for (he himself would never consider it, but still). Steele's presence (along with KKT's incompetence) reduced democratic AA turnout in 2002. His recent stumbles, to be frank, were because of bad advisors and inexperience (his inoffensive mask slipped, although just a little), and they have hurt him. I still think he's going to pick up strength by obscuring his ultraconservative views and by appealing to moderate and conservative whites as well as blacks. And though I hope he won't be eventually successful, he still has a good chance of winning.

To close, I think the issue of race is going to have a huge impact in the democratic primary, mostly because democratic AA's feel dissatisfied with the party and because Mfume is a polarizing guy. It won't have a great impact on the republican side.

by JRyan 2006-07-02 01:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

My friends who are AAs in MD - some of them middle of the road conservatives- although not Republicans- haven't been saying these things to me. So we will see.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 01:11PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Ps the things you think of as little mistakes that Steele can get passed- are big mistakes that he wont get passed in the black community. Hiring the willie horton ads guy isn't a little mistake- its a big one.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 01:15PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

and as for two blacks- which I forgot to add- I think it would tend to increase- not decrease black participation

by bruh21 2006-07-02 12:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

I've moved from Maryland, but I still follow the politics closely, and I think that there's a very real chance Schaefer will lose to Franchot in the primary. Granted, Franchot's also a white man, but he's a white man who progressives should be interested in voting for. The AG race also could come out with Tom Perez or Stuart Simms, who'd presumably excite many non-white voters. The concern there is if Gansler wins the primary, because he'll turn a lot of people off because of spending millions of dollars prosecuting the snipers, despite the fact that they'd already been convicted (not likely to play well with good government folks, among others).

But, there could easily be O'Malley, Brown Franchot, Perez (or Simms), and Mfume on the ballot, which would presumably excite a lot of progressives, including non-white progressives.

by DanM 2006-07-02 01:50PM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Snowball's chance in hell. that's how i view steele's chances. I know too many Maryland black people - and none of them like what they are hearing about Steele.

by bruh21 2006-07-02 09:20AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

If Steele wants to get black voters to vote for him, he might want to stop with the bizarre made-up stories about black people supposedly throwing Oreos at him.

Also, it's not just the strange Holocaust remarks...he said that people making $300,000/year were working class.

This is not exactly a ready for prime-time candidate here. With O'Malley now the presumptive gubernatorial nominee, I don't see any way in which Steele wins this race.

by DanM 2006-07-02 11:01AM | 0 recs

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Re: Mfume Leads Cardin in MD Senate

Haven't really been following this primary. I keep hearing Mfume is more progressive than Cardin, but could someone please tell me what the actual policy differences are?

by Ryan Anderson 2006-07-02 10:42AM | 0 recs