But, 1) I think Obama is a little different than most in the past. Besides the simple fact that he is African-American, he is also a super star, whose only knock to most people (again, not the blogosphere) is a lack of experience. Being VP cures that.
2) My point isn't that he unnecessarily wins Gore votes in the general, although frankly, I think he would. My point is that I could see them cutting a deal in the primary, throwing his support behind Gore, and then Gore crushes Hilary, et. al.
Ok, but, it is still a fundamentally different equation. With Clark, there was a much different relationship then there would be with Obama. Clark much more ran because of the Draft Clark movement. Is there any legitimate question that he would have run if the movement didn't start?
You think any decision Obama makes will be because of the Draft Obama versions? I don't.
First, I think this is silly. The draft Clark movement in my sense was people realizing that there was a great guy out there, and the way to get him to run was to show him he was wanted, he would have money, and he would have supporters.
The point of the Draft Obama movement seems to be to get publicity.
The "drafts" aside:
My basic sense with Obama is that this is where bloggers separate themselves from not only the rest of the grassroots, but the rest of the netroots (for example MoveOn members).
While a Kos poll puts Obama at even with Edwards and Clark, I am guessing that a Moveon Poll would put him far, far ahead.
I had this daydream today that Gore comes in late, stomps out the field, and within 1 month is ahead in money and the polls (OK, maybe close in money, not ahead); and on his first day of announcing, says Obama will be his VP. They crush everyone in sight, and the primary is over before the first vote is cast.
On a personal level, by the way, he has been annoying the living shit out of me for the past two years, by doing basically nothing. I myself would prefer Clark or Edwards. At this point, probably Edwards.
But, anyway, Matt, my rambling basically leads me to this conclusion: His support is not as shallow as you think, because he represents something that a lot of people instinctively go for. He has positioned himself, while sounding really corny, as American, in a sense that a lot of people want to think about us: nice, smart, hopeful, integrated, etc. Especially for our generation (you and I), I think Obama will be unstoppable if he runs. And frankly, I think Obama could cement out generation as permanent Democrats.
Unless, of course, Albert comes back. Then things change.
Funny joke. Pennsylvania is known as one of the more gerrymandered states, and it didn't get like that from a bipartsian process. For example, Lois Murphy's district when from the border of Philly all the way through Reading.
In no sense is our redistricting bi partisan, and in on sense did it protect Dem incumbents. John Perzel drew districts up to try and minimize as much as possible the amount of Dems who could win. And, in the process he threw a number of incumbents Texas style into the same district- for example, Hoeffel and Borski in Philly, and a similar pairing in Pittsburgh.
In fact, the only reason we won the suburban races was because he got a little too piggish, and cut the margins too close, while not accounting for changing demographics.
Campbell is garnering attention because she is the symbol of everything that is wrong with Philly, not because she is African-American. She is not just a ward leader, like the other two.
She was convicted of campaign finance violations.
She has a whole business set up to make herself a killing off of Philly's embarassing way of selecting judges.
She is one of the top two or three people in the City Party apparatus.
She famously said "we need to challenge bloggers on their own turf," or something like that. Philly's bloggers are pretty scary. We want good schools for kids, economic opportunity for all Philadelphians. We want safe streets, and a responsive, accessible government. Yeah, we should definitely be her enemy.
But, as we saw with Trump coming into Philly, when someone has a problem in Philly they quickly, simply start race baiting. Nothing like trying to set your city on fire to protect yourself.
As for Nutter, he has some good ideas. But, its hard to push for a candidate who's signature issue is a chamber of commerce driven tax cut for businesses. Until he squares that, a lot of people are going to have some problems with him.