Obama leads are post-convention. NC is pre-convention.

TIME / CNN / ORC
8/31 - 9/2/08

Iowa (828 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 55, McCain 40
Obama 51, McCain 38, Nader 4, Barr 3, McKinney 2

Minnesota (742 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 53, McCain 41
Obama 51, McCain 37, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Ohio (685 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 47, McCain 45
Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/ 03/states.poll/index.html

Democracy Corps (D) /
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)
8/20-26/08

North Carolina (852 LV, 3%)
McCain 47, Obama 44, Barr 4
Sen: Hagan (D) 50, Dole (R-i) 45
Gov: Perdue (D) 46, McCrory (R) 46

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content /files/ncsw082608fq1.pdf

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CBS/NYT Poll of Republican National Convention Delegates

"The delegates' confidence -- fewer than 2 in 10 fear Mr. McCain may lose -- belies the election-year climate for the party and its other candidates."

Another example of them viewing the world differently: While 90% of the Democratic delegates at their convention said the American economy was in a recession, a whopping 72% of the Republican delegates say it is not."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/01/us/pol itics/01poll.html?_r=1&ref=politics& amp;oref=slogin

Other nuggets include:

How would you describe John McCain's chances of carrying your state against Barack Obama? Would you say McCain is the favorite, or Obama is the favorite, or would you call it a toss-up? IF McCAIN OR OBAMA: Would you say he has a big edge, or only a narrow one?

Obama big 10
Obama narrow  10
McCain big 38
McCain narrow 20
Toss-up 20
DK/NA 3

Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion?

Favorable 77
Not Favorable 11
Undecided 9
Haven't heard enough -
Refused 3

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pd f/politics/20080901-poll.pdf

Check this thing out. It really underlines how extreme they are compared to the rest of the country.

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Obama did good.

Obama Acceptance Speech Gets High Marks From Public

"Fifty-eight percent of Americans give Barack Obama's speech a positive review, including 35% who describe it as "excellent." Both marks surpass those given to the 2000 and 2004 presidential candidates, with the excellent ratings for Obama's speech 10 percentage points higher than any other recent candidate has received."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109948/Obama- Acceptance-Speech-Gets-High-Marks-From-P ublic.aspx

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Fine. Fair enough. I saw the pros and cons of both sides of the argument but in the end I think it makes little difference either way in the big scheme of things. But Clinton supporters had better not get pissy if Hillary gets fewer delegates in the official tally than she actually earned.

Oh, and to kill another fallacy, the Clinton camp specifically stated they did not want the keynote address.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised in the least for this scenario to take place:

"It is possible that Sen. Clinton, having had her name submitted, would use the occasion to release her delegates to Obama; depending on how the roll call is staged, Clinton's released delegates could put Obama over the top."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/arch ives/2008/08/a_little_bit_more_expositio n.php

There's more...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/p ocket_ad

It seems there is an adult in this race. This hits all the right points in my view. Hits McCain, links him to Bush, says what Barack will do to ease pain of high gas prices. Top marks from me. At the end of the day if the top issue is the economy on election day and if Obama leads on that issue he wins.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPARec32K MI

Somehow when Obama points this out it means he is playing the race card?

Apologies if this is diaried elsewhere. Will delete if necessary.

Tips to red83 at Open Left for finding it.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=7256

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This is a genuine poll not that Zogby interactive garbage.

Including Barr and Nader the lead is 10 points, 46-36-3-3.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsN ews/idUSN1535315320080716

Obama has 7-point edge on McCain: Reuters poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a 7-point lead on Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race, and holds a small edge on the crucial question of who would best manage the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

More than a month after kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent. That is slightly better than his 5-point cushion in mid-June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination fight against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

But Obama's 22-point advantage in June among independents, a critical voting bloc that could swing either way in the November election, shrunk to 3 points during a month in which the candidates battled on the economy and Obama was accused of shifting to the center on several issues.

Obama had a 44 percent to 40 percent edge nationally over McCain on who would be best at managing the economy, virtually unchanged from last month. Among independents, the two were tied on the economy.

"There has been a real tightening up among independents, and that has to be worrisome for Obama," pollster John Zogby said. "It doesn't seem like Obama is coming across on the economy."

The economy was ranked as the top issue by nearly half of all likely voters, 47 percent. The Iraq war, in second place, trailed well behind at 12 percent. Energy prices was third at 8 percent.

The faltering economy had been expected to be a weakness for McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise.

McCain has portrayed Obama, an Illinois senator, as a proponent of higher taxes, while Obama has tried to link McCain with President George W. Bush's unpopular economic policies.

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Obama leads McCain amongst RV by 45-39

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/CBSNews_po lls/JUL08a-Campaign08.pdf

''Democrat Barack Obama now holds a six-point edge over his Republican rival John McCain, leading 45% to 39%. But more voters now than last month are undecided, and more than one in four who express a candidate choice could still change their minds.

Both candidates have weaknesses: Voters are more likely now than a month ago to view Obama and McCain as pandering, and see both as shifting on issues in order to get elected.

Obama now leads McCain 45% to 39% -- no different than the lead Obama held in early June, as he was securing the delegate support necessary for the nomination. And this month, 12% of voters are undecided as to who they will vote for, double the 6% who said this in June.''

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When the sample is shrunk to Likely Voters the Obama lead is just three points, 49-46.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit /1066a308Politics.pdf

Of course the MSM lead is negative:

''Doubts About Obama's Readiness Raise the Stakes for his Foreign Trip''

Holes in Barack Obama's foreign affairs resume are spurring doubt about his readiness for a crisis - raising the stakes on his upcoming trip overseas and posing potential opportunity for his otherwise weaker Republican opponent, John McCain. Obama continues to hold most of the advantages in the presidential race, in enthusiasm, levels of partisanship, personal qualities and trust on top domestic issues, notably No. 1, the economy; and he's improved in the past month among swing voter groups. But his experience gap vs. McCain shows up especially in global politics. Americans by a wide margin, 63-26 percent, pick McCain as more knowledgeable on world affairs, rate him much more highly in terms of readiness for the world stage and military leadership alike, and put him ahead of Obama by 50-41 percent in trust to handle "an unexpected major crisis."

Obama remains strong on the home front. He leads McCain by 19 points in trust to handle the economy, 14 points on the deficit and 10 points on immigration, the latter a turnaround from a McCain lead in the spring. By contrast, the two run about evenly in trust to deal with international affairs overall, as well as Iraq, Iran and the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. And McCain has a scant 6-point edge in trust to handle terrorism, though Obama's moved up on this measure since spring. Obama scores on one international issue: Americans by 2-1 think he's better able to restore America's image abroad, overwhelmingly seen as having been damaged by George W. Bush. And McCain's competitiveness on foreign affairs is weakened by its relatively low importance overall: Just 28 percent call it "extremely important" in their vote, compared with 50 percent who say that about the economy. Iraq and terrorism, however, rate higher, at 42 and 37 percent "extremely important," respectively.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/060 8/11320_Page2.html

Politico interviews Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand who tells Ben Smith "[Obama] will focus his resources largely in 14 states George W. Bush won in 2004... hoping to score upsets in places like Virginia, Indiana, and Georgia."

"In an unusual move, Obama's campaign will also devote some resources to states it's unlikely to win, with the goal of influencing specific local contests in places like Texas and Wyoming."

Which leads to perhaps the greatest spin of the cycle. McCain spokesman Brian Rogers: "It's revealing that Barack Obama has now been forced to expand the states on his map because he's so weak in traditional Democratic targets such as West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee and Florida, not to mention his ongoing problems in Pennsylvania and Ohio,".

Hilarious. The whole article is very revealing of how the campaign is thinking. Also from the Chicago Tribune:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/natio nworld/chi-turnoutjun25,0,3852013.story

Sen. Barack Obama "could make major gains in at least nine states the Democratic ticket lost in 2004 if he can achieve a relatively modest increase in turnout among young and African-American voters,"

Long way to go yet but it is encouraging to read about all this offense.

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