Crossposted on Progressive Blue

Let me begin this with something upbeat.  The winner of the Jim Martin sweepstakes is Meridian05. Enjoy your prize!

Analysis below the fold......

Many lessons can be learned from this setback, both about Georgia politics and American politics in general.  Let us start with an obvious point:

Georgia is a Republican state. But why?  In a normal election, more voters in GA believe torture is an effective weapon against terror than those who do not.  More voters believe it is more important to blow things up in the Middle East than build infrastructure here at home.  More voters than not reject the notion of separation of church and state.  More voters than not are comfortable with the societal barriers around us, be they racial, economic, religious, or sexual in nature.  This is a thumnail sketch of a red state's pathology.  Remember, Shrub's low approval ratings are, in part, due to his perceived failure to fully implement the right-wing agenda (we still have legal abortion, we still have Social Security, we still have the income tax, we still have Muslims and undocumented workers within our borders, but no public school prayer).  The agenda itself is not nearly as unpopular as Bush, as much as it should be.

Now, returning to the caveat of "normal election".  Democrats can still win only if the situation is not normal.  Attorney General Thurbert Baker (an African-American Democrat) is an entrenched incumbent with supporters across the spectrum (Cobb County's DA Pat Head, a Republican, appeared in a Baker re-election ad in 2006).  That's not normal.  Jim Marshall runs so far to the right, it scarcely matters ideologically; they may as well stick with the DINO incumbent in GA-08.  Again, not normal.  

In the 2008 GE, Barack Obama brought out so many new voters, in both Georgia and throughout the country, that the voter demographic was skewed, the pathology described above was not as valid, and that abnormality made it possible for Jim Martin, with Allen Buckley's help, to keep Saxby Chambliss below 50%.  Only by preserving the abnormality could Jim Martin win the runoff.  Obviously, he could not.  Why?

Paid media trumps the ground game. Jim Martin had the people making the calls and knocking on doors, far more so than Chambliss.  What he did not have was parity in the ad war.  For all the voters' complaints about negative TV ads, what they really seem to hate are the unsolicited phone calls, the unexpected sounds of knuckle on wood, and the incessant email pleas for votes, money, and time.   In the face of this self-cocooning of the electorate, something Barack Obama could only moderately dent, the paid media becomes the only way in (and let's face it, the Obama campaign has plenty of that).  Between Chambliss, the RSCC, the Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Job Security, and Freedom Watch, Jim Martin could only watch as he was turned into a man to be hated and feared, the prince of higher taxes, government waste, and overall bad judgement.  

Not that Martin didn't have some goods on Chambliss, like his membership in all-white country clubs, or how he's the best golfer in the Senate despite bad knees that kept him out of Vietnam, or his votes against veteran's benefits.  Only the latter was brough out in the final days of the runoff, because Jim Martin was too damn nice! For two elections, Chambliss has had the benefit of opponents who will not do whatever it takes to win, while he certainly has no scruple.  What made Jim Martin such a great candidate, a man in which we could believe, was also a critical handicap in the end (DSCC could have played more hardball themselves, IMO).  

As for Georgia's future, Johnny Isakson looks secure in 2010, while our chances in the open governor's race will depend entirely on how nasty the GOP primary will be.  A vicious, protracted battle on the other side might create the abnormality we need to have a chance, but I would say that such an eventuality represents our only chance.  Beyond 2010 will depend on the pace of overall demographic changes, namely the growth of urbanization in the Atlanta area and whether or not the burgeoning Latino population will organize and participate.