AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

by Chino Blanco, Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 06:18:17 AM EDT

Proposition 8, the hot-button measure to engrave a ban on same-sex marriage into the state constitution, is trailing by nine points, according to a new Field Poll.

More than two-thirds of GOP poll respondents (68 percent) said they would vote for the ban, while 63 percent of Democrats said they would vote "no."

Independents sided with the "no" side even more than Democrats (66 percent).

The Sacramento Bee
CapitolAlert

Chino Blanco

Tags: Proposition 8 (all tags)

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15 Comments

Chino-blanco
51% to 42%

The full report is here. (Warning PDF)

I love California!

by Chino Blanco 2008-07-18 06:20AM | 0 recs
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Re: AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

Change is coming!

by politicsmatters 2008-07-18 06:22AM | 0 recs
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Re: AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

I think the fear mongering won't work now that it has happened in MA long enough and it didn't lead to the prophesized end of society as we know it.

by kasjogren 2008-07-18 06:36AM | 0 recs
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Re: AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

I think it was the lack of society's end in Mass that has led some of my right wing friends to a more relaxed position on gay marriage.  

That and a feeling that this just isn't that big a deal in their lives.  They have a war, a tanking  economy and $4.50 gasoline to get upset about.  Gays no longer rate their righteous anger.

by Susan from 29 2008-07-18 10:04AM | 0 recs
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Re: AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

Oh, the Republicans are gonna blow a gasket.

This should be entertaining.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-07-18 06:42AM | 0 recs
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I can't wait.

If we can defeat the amendments in all three states (FL, CA, AZ), the right-wing morality police is going to seriously freak out.

by psychodrew 2008-07-18 07:30AM | 0 recs
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Re: I can't wait.

Yeah, not going to happen here in Florida. Even in highly democratic South Florida, a lot of people want to enforce a ban......

by Ignored and Disgusted 2008-07-18 07:47PM | 0 recs
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You know, it can't have been a coincidence...

...that the same year Massachusetts enacted full marriage equality (2004), the Red Sox broke the curse and won their first World Series in 87 years.

If I were a betting man, I'd put money on the Angels right now.  (The Dodgers, Giants, A's, and Dads remain pretty much hopeless.)

Illinois, you've got a few months... if you're not willing to do it because it's simply the right thing to do, do it because we Cub fans have been waiting an awful long time...

by mistersite 2008-07-18 07:34AM | 0 recs
Chino-blanco
Mojo'd for originality ...

and gettin' a good laugh.

by Chino Blanco 2008-07-18 08:01AM | 0 recs
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A Bradley effect?

I'm hopeful Prop. 8 will be defeated, but not too
optimistic.  There are voters who are afraid to say they're against gay marriage to a pollster, but will oppose it a voting booth.

It's still a highly personal issue for some voters, and support for gay marriage may be overstated by 5-10% in the polls.

by esconded 2008-07-18 07:40AM | 0 recs
Chino-blanco
Re: A Bradley effect?

But if you take Prop 22's margin of victory, then factor in that it was on a Primary ballot whereas Prop 8 is on a GE ballot, plus the favorable public opinion trend over the past few years, don't the Field Poll numbers just kinda feel about right?

by Chino Blanco 2008-07-18 08:06AM | 0 recs
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I wouldn't hold much hope for Florida

When I was down there a couple months back it seemed like there was plenty of support for the amendment.

I get all sorts of "fix is in" vibes from Florida these days.  I don't want us to put much in the way of emotional or electoral investment there.

by Dracomicron 2008-07-18 07:42AM | 0 recs
Chino-blanco
Re: I wouldn't hold much hope for Florida

Yeah, I think FL is a whole different ballgame in terms of the coalition the anti-gay forces are able to put together down there.  In CA and AZ I think there's a real chance to splinter what's actually a fairly weak and hobbled-together bunch on the Yes side.

by Chino Blanco 2008-07-18 07:58AM | 0 recs
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Re: AM Alert: California Prop. 8 down by nine

The age breakdowns in the survey are fascinating.  Guess which group is most opposed to the amendment?  The youngest group (18-29)? Nope.  The second youngest group (30-39)?  Nope.  The third youngest group (40-49)?  Wrong again.

It's the baby boomers (aged 50-64) who are strongest in opposition to the amendment.  And they are also the largest age group in the sample (constituting 29% of the sample).  Drop out the baby boomers from the sample and it's actually quite tight.

Basically, the baby boomers (50-64) and the millenials (18-29) strongly oppose the amendment, whereas the other group (30-39, 40-49, and 65+ all barely oppose it.

by markjay 2008-07-18 03:48PM | 0 recs
Chino-blanco
courts + guv + legislature + public = legit

I think Kevin Drum makes an important point here:

I think we can be cautiously optimistic that Prop 8 is going to fail, which means that gay marriage will have been approved by the courts, the governor, the legislature, and the public. There's no way anyone will be able to complain that it's anything but completely legitimate.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archive s/individual/2008_07/014121.php

by Chino Blanco 2008-07-19 02:51AM | 0 recs

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