SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

by cardboard 1, Tue May 20, 2008 at 09:26:48 AM EDT

SUSA has two state polls out today for PA and NM which show some great news. Obama has an 8 point lead in PA and is tied in NM. SUSA has stopped polling Clinton's numbers - sorry Clinton folks.

However, and perhaps more interesting, is that they have begun to poll VP picks and John Edwards helps the Obama ticket quite a bit in both states. I think this is a combination of Edwards being a known quantity, as well as his appeal to a voting base (outside of Kossacks) distinct from Obama. I wish SUSA would have included Hillary Clinton and Condi Rice in the cross-tabs...but oh well.

Here are the numbers

PA : Obama: 48 McCain: 40

Obama / Edwards
50/40 (McCain / Huckabee)
52/37 (McCain / Romney)
52/35 (McCain / Pawlenty)
50/38 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Sebelius
42/45 (McCain / Huckabee)
40/41 (McCain / Romney)
41/38 (McCain / Pawlenty)
41/42 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Rendell
40/47 (McCain / Huckabee)
48/39 (McCain / Romney)
49/37 (McCain / Pawlenty)
48/45 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Hagel
40/42 (McCain / Huckabee)
42/41 (McCain / Romney)
42/36 (McCain / Pawlenty)
40/41 (McCain / Lieberman)

---------------------------------------- --

NM : Obama: 44 McCain: 44

Obama / Edwards
47/44 (McCain / Huckabee)
48/42 (McCain / Romney)
47/38 (McCain / Pawlenty)
47/41 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Sebelius
38/48 (McCain / Huckabee)
35/47 (McCain / Romney)
36/43 (McCain / Pawlenty)
35/44 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Rendell
36/48 (McCain / Huckabee)
36/45 (McCain / Romney)
37/41 (McCain / Pawlenty)
36/42 (McCain / Lieberman)

Obama / Hagel
33/50 (McCain / Huckabee)
36/47 (McCain / Romney)
36/42 (McCain / Pawlenty)
35/44 (McCain / Lieberman)

This shows that for a relatively unkown Obama the VP nominee will make some difference. CW often suggest that few people vote on VP picks. I'm doubtful that will hold this cycle. And, perhaps, comfort (which is what I think the Edwards offer) is more important the experience (which my personal pick Wes Clark offers). Anyway, some interesting numbers to chew on. The Edwards difference is really remarkable.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=bc4b7825-1ea9-4cf6-be2e-bbeb0f 7c2d5f

Tags: Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

Comments

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

if they matched up clinton , would have been better

by lori 2008-05-20 09:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

So would reagan if they polled him but neither will be on the ballot this fall

by Cheebs 2008-05-20 09:33AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Mean. Very good. But mean.

by niksder 2008-05-20 09:36AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Yes, but Clinton is no less reasonable a VP pick than Hagel.

by elrod 2008-05-20 09:45AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Is that because it makes too much sense to put the one person on the ticket who can assure that our two powerful forces are united?

by pollbuster 2008-05-20 10:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I don't know about that, but one thing for sure, none of the four that they polled are going to be on the ticket.

by pollbuster 2008-05-20 11:03AM | 0 recs

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Heh. Especially since Edwards have

completely ruled it. He's not interested. One of lifes little ironies, I suppose.

by cosbo 2008-05-20 10:26AM | 0 recs

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Agreed.

It was obvious from the interview (with Lauer?) that Edwards will end up with some sort of cabinet post, but doesn't want to be VP.

Which is fair -- he'd fit well as AG or Labor obviously, plus a couple othes.

by Rorgg 2008-05-20 10:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: Agreed.

It's nice putting imaginary cabinets together, but first there is the little matter of winning the election. And to do so we need a united party, or all we will ever have is imaginary cabinets.

by pollbuster 2008-05-20 11:01AM | 0 recs

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Speculation is what blogs are for.

by dystopianfuturetoday 2008-05-20 01:30PM | 0 recs

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Ifs are funny things

If Clinton had voted against Bush's war...

If she had given any sign that she'd learned something from the last eight years....

If she'd shown the same energy and determination in the Senate that she's shown in the campaign...

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-20 12:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

if they matched up clinton, clinton supporters would have been furious because she's still in the race. There's no way SurveyUSA could include her at this point.

by fbihop 2008-05-20 12:25PM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I think it is striking how poorly an Obama/Rendell ticket does in PA...

I wouldn't mind seeing polling on Obama/Casey and Obama/Strickland though.

by JDF 2008-05-20 09:34AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Yeah that Randell is not a good choice is probably the most that can be brought from this poll. And, that the VP choice will be important for Obama.

by cardboard 1 2008-05-20 09:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I think that Casey is likely a non-starter because of his anti-choice stance.

by Strummerson 2008-05-20 09:47AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Casey will not be chosen. I voted for him happily, several times, but the idea is laughable.

by PantherDem 2008-05-20 10:11AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I wrote about this over at my blog on New Mexico politics.

One wonders how well Obama would do in New Mexico if Richardson were on the ticket...

and, btw, it looks like Huckabee is the best for McCain at the moment.

by fbihop 2008-05-20 09:36AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

It is not fair to poll these things right now. Edwards is a much better known candidate than either governor or Hagel. Whoever Obama picks will become well known after she starts campaigning.

by The Distillery 2008-05-20 09:38AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I agree. But, there are some interesting numbers here, particularly the absence of any Rendell boost. I think the volatility of the numbers is instructive as well. It's just a reminder that GE polling this far out shouldn't be taken too seriously.

by DPW 2008-05-20 09:48AM | 0 recs

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No. Hagel. For. Veep.

SecDef, fine.

Not Veep.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-20 12:13PM | 0 recs

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Two lightweight one-term Senators

This is a disaster idea. Edwards is a nice person with good intentions, but he ran on a platform that opposed everything he voted for when he was in the Senate. The NYT endorsement of Hillary said this so well.

Both are men who started running for president before their first term was up. That Obama people are promoting this tells me they're more clueless than we realized.

by catfish1 2008-05-20 09:44AM | 0 recs

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Re: Two lightweight one-term Senators

So clueless that they beat the Clintons. Yeah. Real clueless.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-20 09:46AM | 0 recs

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Re: Two lightweight one-term Senators

Both are men who started running for president before their first term was up

As opposed to Hillary Clinton, who started running for president by running for the Senate in a state she'd never lived in? And lost the presidential race in her second year in the Senate? On October 10, 2002, to be precise.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-20 12:09PM | 0 recs

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PS

You forgot to fill me in on all those important Senate votes Obama missed.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-20 12:10PM | 0 recs

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Re:

The Breck Girl endorsement has about as much impact as a Ryan Seacrest endorsement. Edwards was already VP and he lost. Enough said. i think the obama supporters are desperately trying to get anyone but Hillary.

by karajan72 2008-05-20 09:46AM | 0 recs

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Re:

Breck Girl? TRed for regurgiteting a Limbaugh talking point. Nice to know which side you're on.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-05-20 11:10AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Why doesn't the map on mydd reflect an Obama win in PA? The past three polls have Obama leading McCain by more than 5 points in PA.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

by DPW 2008-05-20 09:59AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

My bad. It does show Obama winning PA.

by DPW 2008-05-20 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

they should have him winning Michigan and Wisc.

by cardboard 1 2008-05-20 10:28AM | 0 recs

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Noted your correction below...

but there are two big problem with the map:

1. We don't know what it includes. The way it swings, it seems to be a "most recent" thing, but which polls are included is unknown. There needs to be some transparency there.

2. A win/lose binary output 6 months out is a horrible, horrible gauge. Think about this... what's better at this point:
+1 in Iowa
-15 in Pennsylvania
-12 in Ohio

or
-4 in Iowa
-1 in Pennsylvania
-2 in Ohio

Obviously, the second scenario is where you'd prefer to be today -- the polling is within the MoE in all three, and there's a long way to go, but under the way the map works (or seems to -- see point #1) more "strength" is shown by scenario #1.

by Rorgg 2008-05-20 11:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: Noted your correction below...

I agree that the map is unhelpful. I prefer poblano's analysis, really. And, I tend to look at all the data available at pollster/RCP to get a more informed view of GE probabilities.

One thing I like about Poblana, in particular, is his analasis of how increased voter turnout among key demographics would affect the race. One of the limitations of conventional polling is that said polls don't tend to reflect the enthusiasm gap between dems and republicans, as evinced throughout the primary season. And, with a candidate like Obama who will very likely boost turnout among the young and AAs, turnout models based on prior elections are flawed.

by DPW 2008-05-20 11:50AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Edwards doesn't want to be VP. Its really that simple.

This data does suggest how careful Obama needs to be with this choice though. The numbers for Sebelius and, to a lesser extent, Rendell are really pretty unimpressive (Hagel is a non-starter). Some of that is because they don't have name recognition at this point, but I don't think it can account for it all.

by Fuzzy Dunlop 2008-05-20 10:00AM | 0 recs

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Annoying VP options

I'd much rather have known the numbers for an Obama/Wes Clark or an Obama/Strickland rather than the utterly implausible Obama/Hagel.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-05-20 10:04AM | 0 recs

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obama-edwards

Now that's a dream team.

And a beautiful dream team at that.

by april34fff 2008-05-20 10:27AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I would honestly rather have Clinton than Edwards. Edwards has not shown me anything in terms of electability during his two and one half campaigns. Plus, Cheney killed him in their debate.

by rfahey22 2008-05-20 10:29AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

I guess I will now have to retire my signature for Hagel.

Seems the key thing is recognition. Edwards or HRC now for Obama V.P.

by MissVA 2008-05-20 10:42AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Edwards, In my opinion would not help him in his weak demographics. He polls worst with the blue collard demographic than Obama does, dont bother mentioning the other minority demographics.

Edwards is a nice guy, but wont seal any cracks.

by alyssa chaos 2008-05-20 10:50AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Edwards did mediocre in 2 Presidential campaigns, and he lost as a Vice Presidential candidate, adding nothing to the ticket. He was unable to avoid a blowout in his own state, and was trounced in the VP debate with Cheney. So I guess it figures that there are a lot of democrats who want to see him on the ticket.

by pollbuster 2008-05-20 10:57AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

How does this 'point' to an Obama-Edwards ticket? This is all pointless guessing right now. I'm curious why they don't poll Obama/Clinton, as that's the pairing that seems to be getting the most airtime right now. Edwards will not be VP, sorry.

by VAAlex 2008-05-20 11:22AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Edwards is not a good campaigner, he never catches on. His voting record and personal history rightly bring up charges of hypocrisy. You lose all the doctors

by rocky 2008-05-20 11:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: SUSA Poll - Points to Obama-Edwards Ticket

Well,

IMHO what this polls really says is the other potential candidates as VP are hurting the ticket but not Edwards. Why would that be and why does BO numbers go down when not matched with Edwards. Because there are HRC supporters who could live with Edwards as VP but not the others and this is telling us how willing Hillary democrats are to vote for McCain if they dont feel like their views are addressed.

Just one man's opinion.

by giusd 2008-05-20 12:15PM | 0 recs