Quality of Life versus GDP in America

Economic indicators are funny things. If you measure the right thing, they can tell you that even in bad times for most Americans that things are going well. In my previous diary, I discussed the great risk shift from multinational corporations to the average American citizen. Now, I would like to take the discussion in a different direction by looking at why we do not notice this great risk shift. One of the reasons we do notice the shift is the use of GDP as the primary indicator for the state of our economy. Indeed, right now, the GDP has begun to grow for the first time in a year. It stands up 3.5 percent.

The problem, however, in the number is several folds. One it does not address job creation, kind of jobs created or wage stagnation/deflation. Two, it does not address what is being left out of the equation, which is the subject matter of this diary. Thus, the GDP is as interesting for what it leaves out as what it  puts into the equation. However, we rarely have that discussion in America. For these reasons, I advocate that we look at the Quality of Life Index to see where our country really is for the bulk of Americans in our economy.

Quality of life indexes are one means by which we can view what is missing from GDP. As I have said before, I am not the biggest fan of Wikipedia, but it is an easier way for the audience to appreciate what the quality of life index measures:

- Health: Life expectancy at birth (in years). Source: US Census Bureau

- Family life: Divorce rate (per 1,000 population), converted into index of 1 (lowest divorce rates) to 5 (highest). Sources: UN; Euromonitor

- Community life: Variable taking value 1 if country has either high rate of church attendance or trade-union membership; zero otherwise. Source: World Values Survey

- Material well being: GDP per person, at PPP in $. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

- Political stability and security: Political stability and security ratings. Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

- Climate and geography: Latitude, to distinguish between warmer and colder climates. Source: CIA World Factbook

- Job security: Unemployment rate (%.) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

- Political freedom: Average of indexes of political and civil liberties. Scale of 1 (completely free) to 7 (unfree). Source: Freedom House

- Gender equality: Measured using ratio of average male and female earnings. Source: UNDP Human Development Report"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-of- life_index

To that I would add equality in general, including on race, sexual orientation, social mobility and economic equality. These things tell us a great deal about the quality of life of economy of a country.

The U.S. ranks 13th on the quality of life index. We are falling behind Europe in social mobility and income equality. We are 38th  or there abouts in terms of health care, a factor that drives as I remember somewhere around 1/5 of our economy in total.

There are other models such as the Prosperity Index:

"The index is based on a definition of prosperity that combines economic growth with the level of personal freedoms and democracy in a country as well as measures of happiness and quality of life."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091027/lf_n m_life/us_prosperity_index

France recently has embraced a shift for accounting for GDP by including additional indicators of the state of its economy:

"France's president on Monday urged other countries to adopt proposed new measures of economic output unveiled by a panel of international economists led by Joseph Stiglitz, the US Nobel Prize winner."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1af2194c-a12f- 11de-a88d-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=0e3b4494 -227d-11dd-93a9-000077b07658.html

There are concerns about GDP:

"Increasing concerns have been raised since a long time about the adequacy of current measures of economic performance, in particular those based on GDP figures. Moreover, there are broader concerns about the relevance of these figures as measures of societal well-being, as well as measures of economic, environmental, and social sustainability."

http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr/en/i ndex.htm

This is not a right versus left issue. Conservatives are also concerned with factors that GDP alone does not measure regarding the economic activity of a country.  I may disagree with their scale,but the fact is, it is not the same scale as using simply the GDP model favored by the press and the government.

One of the reasons this matters is that you can have an increasing GDP, and still have a poor economic quality of life. For example, a GDP of 3.5 percent is insufficient to produce jobs or increase security in one's job situation.

Here, is the Economic Policy Institute discussing the situation of jobless recoveries under Bush:

"Underlying this recent slowdown in job growth is a fundamental relationship in economics: the rate of employment growth is, by definition, about equal to the rate at which real gross domestic product (GDP) is exceeding productivity growth. That is, if GDP is up 3% and productivity growth is up 2%, employment growth will be in the neighborhood of 1%."

Adding:

"In this context, our current lackluster job growth is no mystery. Over the past year, real GDP grew 3.5%, about one point faster than the annual growth in productivity. Intuitively, this means the economy has not been generating enough demand to lead employers to significantly expand their workforce (the 1% difference between these two values translates to about 112,000 jobs per month). As long as GDP is growing at about the same pace as productivity, there is little need to add workers to meet consumers' and investors' demands for goods or services."

http://www.epi.org/economic_snapshots/en try/webfeatures_snapshots_20060913/

Thus, if some economists are right in stating that higher unemployment is the "new" normal in the U.S. we need to look at quality of life to determine what impact this is having on our economic situation rather than GDP alone.

"Many economists believe the recession reversed course in the recently ended third quarter and they predict modest growth in the nation's gross domestic product over the next few years. Yet the unemployment rate is currently at a 26-year high of 9.8 percent -- and likely to top 10 percent soon and stay there a while.

"Many factors are pushing against a quick recovery," said Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute. "Things will come back. But it's going to take a long time. I think we will likely see elevated unemployment at least until 2014."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33384835/

We must have better ways to observe economic activity in the U.S. on a mass media scale. Right now, focusing on GDP seems to present incomplete image that is to the advantage of maintaining the status quo of shifting risk to the American people as their social mobility, wages and other economic prospects decline.

Tags: GDP, Quality of Life (all tags)

Comments

24 Comments

Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

Excellent, Bruh.  GDP can be a very deceptive figure.

by TomP 2009-10-29 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

Thanks. I simply think there are a lot of things that need to be uncovered in looking at economic activity that are not discussed. Thus, we tend to not figure out how to accurately describe it. I think of this as like whether we should approach accounting rules. If you do not do the right analys, you don't reflect the economic activity that's occurred. Here, if you want to know say is a society investing in its future economic activity, GDP does not necessarily tell you that.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

Any measure that does not take my iPhone into account is necessarily incomplete.

by Steve M 2009-10-29 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

The point is that economic activity is more complicated than GDP because it tells us nothing about for whom or quality of the GDP activity.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 06:58AM | 0 recs
Nader

in one of his books a decade ago noted if I get into an accident, GDP goes up.  If I don't, then GDP is not affected.

There is truth in looking at it this way obviously.  But it is also true that the mechanic needs the work.  

Measuring pure economic activity in and of itself is important.  There is an enourmous correlation between GDP and employment and employment strongly correlates to just about any measure of well being.

So while it isn't everything, GDP still is damned important.

Are there other measures that better measure the totality of life? Absolutely though compared with GDP they are arguably more subjective to measure.  The US has lower life expectency than many other countries, but ranks at the top in the cure rate for most cancers, for example. Of course, given the amount spent we SHOULD have higher cure rates, but the point is metrics on health care quality are murkey (as anyone who reads the OECD report will find).

by fladem 2009-10-29 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Nader

I think some of you may be missing my point. My point is not that I have all the answers here regarding what should be included in economic indicators. The point is that GDP tends to overused as if it tells you the full picture economically of what is happening, and that we need to consider the full economic picture.

Take the Nadar example- the better question is not whether the mechanic needed the work, but whether there is additional added value from the activity. For example, the 800 bil dollars that we apparently waste (as per recent reports) in the health care system is still economic activity, but will it yield added value like say investing in an energy diverse economy will?

These things are not as wobbly as you argue. They are real economic factors that determine the long term economic health, versus short term economic health, of countries.

Take another example already mentioned in my diary- employment. You can have a GDP of 3.5 percent without producing any jobs, and the jobs you could be producing may not be higher paying jobs so that savings overall for most people may be less. That may in turn affect their ability to start a new business that may have been a future innovator or provide new technical knowledge to the economy.

My thesis is not that these particular indicators I list are the right set of indicators, but that it is far more complicated than the GDP would have us believe to try to determine the economic state of a country.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: What about

Productivity numbers? This is another measure which is often bandied about as more is better, and that's always bugged me. Your take on GDP is spot on, btw.

by QTG 2009-10-29 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: What about

And President Obama's lead economic advisor seems to strike the right tone here:

http://news.firedoglake.com/2009/10/29/c ontrasting-gdp-growth-with-job-loss/

It is not that GDP does not matter, but to properly understand the value of the number in context.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 08:19AM | 0 recs
Quick summary of the diary:

The problem with GDP is that it only measures the things that GDP measures.

In other words, GDP doesn't measure stuff that GDP doesn't measure.

by jeopardy 2009-10-29 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

That's not fair.

This diary is just the sort of thing we need more of.

Our society is bombarded with numbers whose significance and meaning, to most recipients, are inferred from the vocal inflection imparted by some news-reader or business channel spokesmodel.

"GDP is up! Hooray!" or "Productivity is up!" Hooray!

by QTG 2009-10-29 10:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

The diary does a lot more than what you describe. It goes to basic concept of economic opportunity, and what it means.  The diary says that the problem with GDP is that it should not be the primary measure, as we as society tend to use it, of economic activity because it offers an incomplete picture and why we need to include a more complicated picture of what GDP means. Hence, the discussion of other indicators that should be combined with GDP to allow people to understand the total picture of our economy.  

Your snark seems to imply it does not matter what form economic activity takes (which is what the GDP already does) so long as it is economic activity. So, what we leave out or include in the numbers does not matter.  A dollar spent on fraud in the health care business is the same as a dollar spent on a startup like say one of the companies that brought a component of the internet into being. GDP covers up the difference and real value of such economic activity.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

Ok, you are right that my post was unreasonably snarky, and I apologize for that. That was wrong for me to do.

But I don't think that it is anything but obvious that a whole host of economic and lifestyle measures would be better than any single one by itself. Nor do I think that it is really fair to fault a measurement for not being as comprehensive as bevy of measurements in the aggregate.

Further, any other individual measurement you cite has similar (or even worse) problems. Take the unemployment rate, for instance. The Gov. puts out 6 of them, all with different ways of measuring it, and others have come up with even more of them. So how much weight can we put on that?

And we should absolutely be happy about the GDP going up by nearly 10% in only two quarters. It means that the economy is expanding, and this will have an effect for the average person no matter where that expansion comes from (although you are absolutely correct that the distribution of it also matters)

But I suppose my main point is that you seem to think that many people assume that GDP growth rate is the major factor in quality of life, and I don't think I've met a single person who thought that.  

But the diary reads to me like one that says we shouldn't trust the Theory of Evolution because it doesn't explain how gravity works. Well, that's not what it is even supposed to do and that doesn't take away from the fact that it still ahs value.  

by jeopardy 2009-10-29 10:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

I'm sure bruh3 will respond, but my take is that taking on GDP is very timely due to the news today. You're point about other measures' weaknesses is correct, but I don't think that's at issue here. It's the gravitas that GDP is given balanced against the general misunderstanding of it distortions and, in fact, often contrary tracking of Living Standards that is at issue.

by QTG 2009-10-29 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

Except the diary is a bit of a straw man argument - nobody thinks that GDP is a measurement of quality of life. And nobody thinks it is better than a whole bunch of measurements int he aggregate.
But as a measurement of the expansion of the economy, it does fine and it is important.

by jeopardy 2009-10-29 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

This is not true. A lot of people do think of GDP as equaling prosperity,a nd I don't just include the quality of life index. I mention both the prosperity index and that conservatives have their own take on this. I think you are over simplifying my point based on the title?

by bruh3 2009-10-29 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

GDP Does equal economic expansion of the country as a whole. And that Does tend to help out many people, although some more than others. It is positively correlated with median real wages, for example (although there are reprehensible policies like the ones Bush implemented than can hurt the middle and lower classes, but that is an entirely different point)

But I've NEVER seen a single person suggest that GDP growth is distributed evenly and has the same impact on every person or group of people in the country. I've NEVER seen a single person suggest that Quality of Life for every citizen is even primarily based on GDP numbers. Only that GDP growth tends to help out. And that is accurate.

But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

by jeopardy 2009-10-29 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

Real wages for low and median wage earners have been stagnant since the 70 (wages earners in the bottom 95 percent):

http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/bp 195/

Check out the graph in the link. Wages have only  significantly increased for the top 5 percent of wage earners.

So, when you write there is a positive correlation between wage increase and GDP increase, that's an example of what I mean by an over-emphasis on what GDP means.  The very fact you are making that argument de-emphasizes the other economic variables.

Practical example- how often is wage stagnation reported versus GDP? For that matter, how often do they report general indicators like how the stock market is doing versus whether the general economy is diversified enough to weather the natural business cycle?

by bruh3 2009-10-29 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

By the way, Romer, Obama's economic advisor, attempts to get at the distortion mentioned by QTG. The idea that the economy is merely a matter of the GDP is something she wanted to disavow  by pointing out we can have higher GDP and a high unemployment rate. She is doing this because of the distortion of how reporting on the issue occurs.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Bravo.

Romer and others, seem to be aware that - while a GDP number of +3.5 is certainly more desireable than -6.3, that's about all that can be said about it. Extrapolating from it to make broad generalizations about the near, mid, or long term health of the economy would be plainly wrong and serve no good purpose.

Your diary and the subsequent conversation has been extremely stimulating and informative.

by QTG 2009-10-29 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

The real median wage was stagnant from 2000 to 2008 when it fell significantly.  At the same time, GDP expanded.  There is not a direct correlation.  In fact, knowing just these facts allowed me to time the collapse, not lose any money on it, and buy a gorgeous home for 1/3 the build price.  Expanding GDP does not mean widespread improvement in any area.

by SuperCameron 2009-10-30 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

I guess where we disagree is that I think a lot of people do not understand economic issues as per the press coverage. I am not saying that I have the answers about what should be included, but I do know that what is not included in GDP are qualitative issues and "big picture" issues that are important. If you want analogy, think of this like trying to account for a company that's traded on the stock exchange. The accounting for those companies are fairly complex. I think of like when they say in financial statements one must otherwise include information that will tell a potential investor about the economic life of the company. I don't think that complexity is properly understood by most Americans at least as it is described in some of the media. Some of them get it right, but others over simplify the issue to GDP=economy is doing well. The whole point of thinking of other indicators is to determine for whom is the economy doing well and whether the ways in which the economy is doing well will leave to future economic value, etc. I wrote this diary fairly quickly, but I wrote it with the idea that we don't really cover econimic issues in a complex enough way for Americans to understand the gray parts. For example, having a higher GDP but also having a higher unemployment rate or wage deflation because the economic value is being pushed to the top of the economy rather than the wealth being obtained through out. Those are indicators that I think people should take into account.

by bruh3 2009-10-29 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Quick summary of the diary:

You hit on a problem that is even larger than just reliance on GDP (which can rise simply on the basis of higher oil prices).  The media use any minor short term data point to reach all kind s of conclusions.  For example, an increase in the Dow does not necessarily reflect a positive tend for the real economy.  The use of extreme short term indicators (eg, new unemployment applications drop one month and it becomes a signal of improvement in the employment landscape) muddies the waters and discounts the value of real long term analysis and planning.  As you point out, despite the economic boon (sic) in the 90's and 00's, most Americans fell on harder times or continued in a stagnated quality of life.  And the constant yo-yo of economic announcements good and bad serves only to confuse the great majority of the public who do not know how to read these indicators.  

by orestes 2009-10-31 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

From my own personal planning (home purchase, auto, equities) I've found the most useful to be real median household income.  If it's not rising, risk is high.  If it is rising, there's not likely to be any surprises.  That's one reason why I believe the rise in current equity values and commodity prices is speculative and therefore quite risky.

by SuperCameron 2009-10-30 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Quality of Life versus GDP in America

I definitely think you are on to something with wage increase needing to become a primary economic indicator of where out country is economically.

by bruh3 2009-10-30 06:20PM | 0 recs

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