I gotta say that I remember this from two years ago. So, screw these numbers. They're raw, maybe?

You can buy a contract on GOP keeping the House on Intrade or Tradesports right now for 16.5 cents. Payoff is a dollar. I don't know much about these political futures markets and their records, but I like those odds for us Dems.

I've checked the Tradesports and Iowa markets. For what it's worth, a contract for Republican control of the House is worth 19 cents on Tradesports, 73 cents for GOP to hold the Senate. IEM has GOP Lose House at 80 cents, GOP hold Senate at about 70 cents.

The market has spoken. But, it spoke about Pets.com, too. Just took a long time and got it wrong a lot along the way.

I hope we win it all, and Bush resigns in shame. Well, okay, maybe Bush just learns how to feel shame. That'll be enough.

The message is easy. George W. Bush can't be trusted.  He spilled American blood and treasure preventing Saddam Hussein from giving weapons he didn't have to terrorists he didn't know. Isn't the war on terror just too important to let George W. Bush and his enablers lose it for us? That should be our message.

Hat tip to Talking Points Memo:

"It's vile. It's more sad than anything else, to see someone with such potential throw it all down the drain because of a sexual addiction."

--Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL), commenting on President Clinton, following release of the Starr Report, September 12, 1998.

What? Chris, how is it that you put up a poll list that's pretty optimistic yesterday, with like, 20 races in which a Dem leads, etc., but now, everything hinges on WA-08, in which our woman is behind by a couple? Not hassling you, but trying to understand the reasoning.

I just want to remind everyone that Mark Warner turned down the opportunity to run for this seat. When I was canvassing a Republicans' Party precint last year for Tim Kaine, I found no enthusiasm for Jerry Kilgore among voters whom I was pretty sure pulled the lever for Bush (twice) and Allen (at least once), some interest in Kaine, and a likely interest in just sitting out gubernatorial election. But all those GOP-leaning voters would look at me and say, wistfully, "I wish we could just keep Mark Warner."

I think his presidential run is a longshot, and he's not liberal enough to cause me real joy, but he would beat George Allen like a rug right now. I would have had a harder time predicting that, but it's true.

Been watching Allen since he first ran for public office. I've been his constituent or, as he might say, subject, for every year he's been a legislator or executive. Let me say boldly that the man has had one unwavering principle:

George Allen is entitled to a better job.

You will have to spatula George Allen's hands from the levers of power. His ritual suicide before the grave of J.E.B. Stuart in Richmond's Hollywood Cememtery? That's more believable than his quitting the race. The only way he'd quite is if the national Republicans' Party put a figurative (or literal) gun to his head or enormous bribe in his hands.

The first and foremost message to use is:

"The Republicans' Party Lies."

They've lied before they invaded Iraq. They lied about occupying Iraq. They lied when their friends got caught with a hand in the government's till. They've lied about the Department of Homeland Security being all about protecting you against terror and hurricanes. They lie when they say they don't torture or don't spy on you or don't lock up Americans without trial for years. They lie.

They spent 300 billion dollars and 2800 American lives keeping Saddam Hussein from giving weapons he didn't have to terrorists he didn't know. And they lied about it, before, during, and after.

Now, what's that they're saying about Candidate X again?

I think the "Had Enough?" message is pretty good. There are dozens of variations on it.

The ultranationalist structure of the current GOP is hard to beat on getting out some of the Bush base. But, I even think a message that pointedly asks them what they've gotten from the GOP is a good one. Terry Schiavo? "Bring out the Gimp!" I say, since that debacle was hardly fully supported by churchgoers. Harriet Myers? Let's bring her up. Tax cuts for the rich, and what ever happened to the compassionate conservative plan to permit charitable deductions without itemizing?  

Well, I'm just dispirited and not confident. Maybe it's me, but the Republicans' Party has a lot of money and the bloody shirt that is September 11 and nationalism is still not worn through, I fear. We may, indeed, be just that stupid. Or, just stupid enough. Plus, I live in Virginia, and this is the third campaign year in a row. The Tim Kaine victory was great, and proves that we Democrats can do something right, the year before, not so much, when I dug deep in my pockets for Kerry. The only good news is that Allen has fallen so far hanging onto his seat will  be a challenge,  but I've been watching him for twenty years or so and he's got a reservoir of crass personal ambition that drowns every other part of his personality. I at least hope he's never going to get a shot at the White House.

Basically, been down so long flat's looking like up to me. I'll believe we win when it happens.

According to Mystery Pollster: raw numbers, unweighted, not to mention the change in electorate during the day, etc. Really. Read.

How reputable?

Today, I did several hours of literature drops in largely-African American neighborhoods that I'd canvassed weeks ago. I am worn out. Then, I came home and called 25 volunteers as part of Kerry's Phone Corps program, which is amazing.

I realize that going door-to-door is validating in a way that phone or other work isn't. You're spending energy--you assume it's worthwhile and efficient. Maybe not, but I also learned that it's digging the Panama Canal with a teaspoon: You can do it, but you need a lot of people and a lot of teaspoons, and the labor is justified if it's the only way to dig. And it just may be, in this case.