i always tell people that the first door -- by which i mean the first person you talk to -- is the hardest.  you don't know what to expect when you're in a new state or new campaign or new year, no matter how many times you've done it before.

here i am in florida, and i didn't even have to look at the list.  i knew i was in republican territory.  north part of orlando, close to winter park, homes built around a couple of small lakes.  i knock on the first door and i look to see the party registration.  republican.  of course.  but no one is home, so i leave the lit and move on.  rinse and repeat for the second door.  the third door is right next door.  another republican.  i didn't even have to look, there was a contribution envelope in response to a direct mail plea from john mccain.  the faint blue check could be seen through it in the bright sun light.  i thought about not knocking on the door (the outgoing mail was clipped to the door), but i figure, wtf.  it's on my list.  and that's why i'm here.

i have on my blue obama shirt and the lady who answers the door says, "i don't want to talk to anyone supporting obama!" i pretend i haven't seen the envelope.

"so how would you like me to code this?" i ask with my warmest smile.  "i can mark you as a 4, leaning mccain, or as a 5, a strong supporter of john mccain."

"make me a 5," she replies.  "obama's gonna be president, anyway," she says.  "i'm telling you, we won't like it.  come back and talk to me six months after he's president.  i dare you." she tells me that she's not really enthusiastic about mccain, but she's afraid of where she thinks barack will take us.  she tells me twice that it's not mccain she's voting for, she's voting against obama.  just so i know (maybe i'm supposed to be demoralized).

this is not normal.  especially not in florida.  in florida, republicans tend to be confident, even when they shouldn't be.  ask jeb bush in 1994.  but not today.  not here in the all-critical i-4 corridor.  this is not normal.

the second person i talked to, a few doors down, was also republican.  "not your guy," he tells me.  i go through the same spiel.  he doesn't like any of the choices he tells me.  "the guy i wanted to run didn't," he says and struggles to remember his name.  after his description, i offer newt gingrich's name up.  "yeah, him.  i'm really conservative," he says, concerned about abortion, gay marriage, etc.  a social conservative, i think to myself.  this is the land of many churches, and sunday's sacred here -- church and then football.  god save the preacher whose sermon keeps members from seeing the kickoff!  still, we had a pleasant conversation.  i remind him that he has other choices besides john mccain.  "didn't howard phillips run last time?" i ask, not remembering if phillips is considered a social or economic conservative.  a vote taken away from mccain still helps.

i continue to knock on doors around the lake with no luck.  but then i come across a couple who are listed on my sheets as registered republicans.  they're undecided, they tell me.  i hand them my lit which is conveniently entitled, "meet barack obama." i ask them what are their issues, their concerns.  "everything," the women says.  "there's a lot to think about," she tells me.  her husband nods.

three republicans, among the first three people i talk to.  a 5, a 4 and two 3s (undecided).  not a single enthusiastic supporter of john mccain.  this is not normal, especially in florida.  this is something different.

the moment i got off lake shore drive (the one in florida), things took an uptick.  bang, bang -- two obama supporters.  two obama signs in their windows.  in florida, of all places!  i took pictures, just because i thought there were people who might have trouble believing that barack has enthusiastic support right here in the all critical i-4 corridor.  one of the ladies i talked to was feeling pretty confident, too.  "i'm telling all my gop friends about obama," she confides.  "we're gonna win some of them."

the next person i talk to, a recently graduated journalism student, tells me he's leaning obama.  the rest of the house supports him, he admits.  "but i want to decide for myself." he's my only 3l, leaning towards obama.

the next house i get someone at is a husband and wife, 44 and 43.  four years ago, this combination invariably meant bush supporters.  i think about that as i'm waiting for a response.  the wife comes to the door.  "not obama," she says, but quite pleasantly.  they're voting for mccain, she says.  i smile (again) and move on.  narrowing the universe -- almost as important as finding supporters because we don't have to waste volunteer or staff time on them.

i knock on the door of a woman who apparently just got home from work.  she was reading email, she tells me, her young daughter tugs at her leg.  "we're undecided," she tells me.  they are former republicans, she admits.  the economy and the environment are her first concerns, but also health care.  she's a biologist, and she's afraid "socialized medicine" will mean she will lose her job.  "if obama adopts hillary's health care plan, i'll never work again." i refer her to the website and mention that hillary criticized barack's health care plan.  i tell her i think that he will propose something that he believes will pass congress -- but i'm just not sure, i admit.  go to barack obama dot com, i tell her, there's lots of detail there.

like the social conservative i met earlier, we have a lengthy conversation.  i tell her that as undecided voters, she and her husband are at the center of the political storm.  "you'll get lots of contact," i say.  she replies that it's fine, "every person will have a different story," she says, " a different reason why they support their candidate." her real beef with barack is rev. wright, she admits.  i tell her that no one speaks for barack but barack.  don't judge him by his pastor.  she admits that she doesn't agree with everything her pastor says.  "no one does," i reply.

then i tell her my story from my brother, who's a methodist minister here (in florida).  he gave a sermon about change in the church but he used the term change a lot in the course of his sermon.  he got lots of feedback from a few parishioners that they thought he was politicizing the church by using the term change.  they thought just by using the term change he was signaling his support of barack.  he was just arguing that the church needs to change to stay relevant through the ages!

she laughs.  but she gets the point.  we don't always agree with what anybody says, even when we really like them.  "check his positions out on the website," i repeat.  she wanted to know more about barack and i did the best i could under the circumstances.

the last person i talk to is another enthusiastic supporter.  "you ought to volunteer," i tell her (just as i encouraged the others).  i leave the office phone number, just in case.  or sign up on the website.  but we need your help, i tell her.

yesterday afternoon, i hit 75 doors before it started to pour.  i talked to people at 29.33% of them, slightly below average.  in this little area that is definitely republican, 6 people told me they supported barack, 1 person said he was leaning towards barack, 6 people said they were undecided, 1 person said he was leaning towards mccain and 5 people said they were supporting john mccain.  this was perhaps 20-25% of one precinct.  still, it was remarkably encouraging.  and this is an area where we need all the encouragement we can get.

the signs are that the obama campaign is taking winning florida very seriously. i recognize some of the faces here from the primaries in ohio and pennsylvania.  rhodes cook notes that democratic registration is up by 7,625 while republican registration is down 12,745.  my own canvassing supports this, as i found voters who had moved from republican to undeclared over the last few years.  note that his numbers do not reflect the registration efforts currently underway by the obama campaign and their organizing fellows.

the real discovery -- and what i could not have expected -- is that the enthusiasm gap among the electorate in florida has shifted from the republicans to the democrats.  remember that florida was one of the few states where more republicans turned out in the primary than did democrats (1,924,346 to 1,734,456).  in democratic volusia county, republicans drew 52,710 voters while democrats drew 50,350.  in brevard county, 87,993 republican ballots (61.67%) were cast while 63,884 democrats ballots were cast (55.34%).  in orange county, where democrats out-registered republicans 203,829 to 175,336 back in january, republicans drew 91,742 voters and democrats 88,157.  in polk county, where democrats out-registered republicans 122,476 to 114,565, democrats had 48,050 voters show up while 57,060 republicans turned out.  only osceola -- the smallest of the i-4 corridor counties had a favorable democratic showing.  even in hillsborough county, where democrats out-register republicans 247,948 to 213,574, republicans turned out 101,464 voters while only 94,951 democrats showed up.

florida is a tough nut to crack -- more so because it has expensive media markets and a divided democratic party that has basically lost any institutional integrity.  there is no state in the competitive range that needs grassroots help more.  consider the wide discrepancies between voter turnout in democratic counties and republican counties in the primary.  in the ten counties with the highest voter turnout, the republican counties were registering turnout in the 50s while democratic counties were in the 30s and traditional swing counties were in the 40s:

County	Registered Voters	Ballots Cast	T/O Percentage
Totals:	10,203,112	4,239,350	41.50%
<font color=blue>Miami-Dade</font>	1,085,527	396,597	<font color=blue>36.50%</font>
<font color=blue>Broward</font>	890,836	340,298	<font color=blue>38.20%</font>
<font color=blue>Palm Beach</font>	782,748	306,302	<font color=blue>39.10%</font>
Pinellas	604,337	249,601	41.30%
<font color=blue>Hillsborough</font>	608,239	226,160	<font color=blue>37.20%</font>
Orange	508,185	209,524	41.20%
<font color=blue>Duval</font>	558,658	189,400	<font color=blue>33.90%</font>
<font color=red>Brevard</font>	317,165	169,632	<font color=red>53.50%</font>
<font color=red>Lee</font>	263,968	151,520	<font color=red>57.40%</font>
<font color=red>Sarasota</font>	241,870	127,025	<font color=red>52.50%</font>

turnout is all about voter contact, the face to face efforts by volunteers.  the obama campaign is basically starting from scratch -- there was no primary in order to build a base, there is no real party organization in more than a handful of counties, and the electorate has yet to lock in impressions of either candidate.  to win in florida, the obama campaign needs to find and mobilize thousands and thousands of volunteers, and it needs to do so quickly.  the republican party is not only better organized in the state, it has trained people on the ground able to turnout gop voters.  because democrats skipped over the state, florida democrats did not benefit from the presence of two active campaigns who worked to get out the democratic vote.  local democrats did not get this valuable experience -- even more valuable given the state of disrepair in the florida democratic party.  so the need for volunteer support is critical and immediate.  sign up now to help win the state.  steve schale argues that if obama wins florida, obama goes to the white house as our next president.  kind of hard to argue with that...