i'm not particularly a believer in (national) wave elections.  they occur too infrequently and you cannot plan for them, hence i don't count on them.  as an old surfer, i easily identified rahm's electoral strategy: whip a bunch of campaigns into shape, and keep looking over his shoulder for that big wave to ride.  this gamble now looks like it may be paying off.

a lot of what i call (democratic) official-dom here in illinois has been focused on IL 6th, but the duckworth-roskam race will only offer a hint of whether there is a true wave election undertoe.  a better indicator to the strength of the national wave is IL 10th, with the race between dan seals and incumbent mark kirk.  

under normal conditions, kirk should be a safe incumbent.  kirk won 64% of the vote in 2004, pulling 174,158 votes to 97,701.  but kerry won the district (53%), kirk's re-elect number has hovered around 50%, and the generic ballot test has increasingly favored a democrat.  bush's popularity in the district has dived into the toilet with the rest of the country.

the key here is clearly to tie kirk to bush and the administration's failures.

this shouldn't be a race that democrats can win, which is why it makes the perfect test for rahm's wave theory.  incumbents are most vulnerable in their first re-election campaign or when they have tired of returning to and servicing their congressional districts, or running campaigns like they could lose.  kirk stills does these things.  and his aggressive messaging stance gets him lots of media coverage.

but all that gets thrown out the window when there is a wave election.  waves elect candidates who no one would consider top tier in races that few believed could be won.  chris cillizza discusses the phenomenon in wednesday's fix, where he mentions illinois' tenth congressional district.  my reading of this notes that he repeats things i've been saying for awhile (although i've been accused of being arrogant, so you decide).

what is most interesting to someone like me is that this race is a test not only of rahm's gamble, but also whether the republican micro-message for purplish suburban districts can turn back democrats even in the worst of circumstances.  the seals-kirk race, then, has far reaching implications, not just as proof of rahm's genius but also of the long-term control over congress.

congressional quarterly examined all 435 congressional districts last year, and observed that "For the first time ever, most House districts have a suburban majority." the reason why i think who wins in the 10th is more significant than who wins in the 6th is that the race in the 6th isn't any different than your normal open seat contest.  whenever an open congressional seat exists, it is hotly contested, with only a few rare exceptions.

but a kirk win, especially in the midst of a democratic wave (even a minor wave election) gives the republican party hope even in defeat and a direction for continuing to dominate congressional elections.  a duckworth win will only re-focus the congressional republican's attention on that seat, but a seals win will literally demoralize the right.  a seals win will take the air out of kirk's suburban strategy and republican efforts to retool its tactics in congressional elections.

people are starting to notice.  seals campaign exposes not only kirk's vulnerability in a wave election year, but also the changing political dynamics in the chicago suburbs.  these areas are becoming not only more democratic, but also more activated.  the tenth dems and lake county dfa have mobilized democrats in the 10th congressional district like never before, and the 2004 kerry results show this.  where kirk has had a significant edge in field organization in previous elections, this no longer looks likely.

most important, tammy duckworth is more likely to win if dan seals is perceived as equally competitive by labor day.  as i've noted before, republicans take advantage of regional clustering of competitive seats and send out extra resources to competitive clusters.  everyone benefits if republican resources are stretched.  however, not everyone agrees.  i marched in the bud billiken parade last weekend with the former co-host of the goose island illinois dem net meetup.  she was asked to leave this group of former obama and kerry activists because she is devoting her attention to the seals' campaign.  the idn webmaster wanted to focus on tammy duckworth, and apparently would tolerate no dissent.  that's not forward thinking at all.

cq rates this race as "Republican Favored", cook calls it "Likely Republican," and roll call rates  it as a "Safe Republican" seat.  jeff notes that the cq rating changed earlier this week.  you can contribute to the seals campaign or, if you're local, volunteer.  while i would like to see more field activity from the seals campaign, i suspect that more volunteer help is required to make this happen.