LIVE BLOGGING the CA-48th

by BigDog, Tue Dec 06, 2005 at 06:57:16 PM EST

The first returns will be heavily absentee and those will be heavily Campbell. They will release very early.

The Young Campaign has no desire to feed the Negative Birds that are feeding at dKos so we will wait until we have live ballot returns before we begin.

The blogger will be myself or a designate.

Thanks.

Keep the Faith.

Update [2005-12-6 23:57:16 by BigDog]:
Well, I'm starting earlier than expected because of the results.
Steve Young just doubled his entire Primary vote result in just the absentee ballots just released!

* Campbell 30,895
* Young 14,697
* Gilchrist 10,944
* Tirilli 915 (Grn)
* Cohen 644 (Lib)

This is so good a set of numbers that it means nothing but good things. Very Good News

Stay Tuned....Update [2005-12-7 0:21:18 by BigDog]:More results from live results in 20 minutes or less...] 54 of 268 precincts * Campbell 33,592 50.7 * Young 17393 26.2 * Gilchrist13,637 20.6 * Tirilli 998 1.5 * Cohen 702 1.1 The importance of this is that Campbell, as was true during the primary, DROPPED his percentage of the vote every time a live vote was counted. And there's a LOT of live votes left to be counted. If this trend continues...Campbell drops...Gilchrist gains in net votes against absentee....we have a very interesting evening ahead of us. Update: UPDATE * Campbell 35,719 47.9 * Young 20,532 27.6 * Gilchrist13,637 20.6 * Tirilli 1,069 1.5 * Cohen 702 1.1 Campbell continues to fall and the net gain continues to grow. This is 110 of 268 Precincts...wait for it....

Final results...... Campbell 41,450 Young 25,926 Gilchrist20,971 Tirtilli 1,160 Cohen 880 Steve Young got 28.0% of the vote. And the overall turnout was an anemic 23%. And wouldn't have been a problem if that was PRECINCT votes...but it wasn't. But the truth is that of the total vote 63% were absentee and that 15K difference in the first reported vote carried that day for Campbell. Thanks to all that tried and believed. Thanks to the staff and thanks to Steve Young. He'll be back. Thanks to the donors, skeptics and Democrats in general. Fight every fight...every time. And now The Big Dog is going to go have a HUGE drink....

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Let's recommend this one...

...and forget about the other one.

The BigDog is our inside source.

by HellofaSandwich 2005-12-06 07:01PM | 0 recs

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Re: Let's recommend this one...

You're right, he obviously has more refresh button expertise

by ben114 2005-12-06 07:06PM | 0 recs

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Re: Let's recommend this one...

No offense, but BigDog's a Young staffer and he knows what the numbers MEAN... for example, he's mentioned that Young has doubled his primary votes in the absentee ballots alone, which compared to Campbell, who can't claim the same feat, is pretty impressive.

I appreciate the work it takes to liveblog, honestly. Don't mean to knock to you.

by HellofaSandwich 2005-12-06 07:09PM | 0 recs

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So when will they release the actual

Results either that or i am totally confused.

by Liberal 2005-12-06 07:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

Well 24 of the Precients have made it to the Register of Voters so I'm assuming more numbers will be coming out soon

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:16PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

Okay thanks.

by Liberal 2005-12-06 07:18PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

it's now 54

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

77 now have reached

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:46PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

101 precients have not reach the Registers office and should be reported soon

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:52PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

should have been now and it's 105 now

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:53PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

146 have now reach register's office

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: So when will they release the actual

now 178 of 268 have reached

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:23PM | 0 recs

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first up date

Total Registered Voters 405655
Precinct Registration 405655
Precinct Ballots Cast 8271 2.0%
Early Ballots Cast 28 0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast 58266 14.4%
Total Ballots Cast 66565 16.4%

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 33592 50.7%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 17373 26.2%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 13637 20.6%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 998 1.5%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 702 1.1%

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:32PM | 0 recs

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Re: first up date

Anyone know whether the precints reporting so far - the 54 - are heavily Dem-leaning? Because if I'm reading these numbers right (comparing to what we had from absentee only), Campbell, Young, and Gilchrist split the 8271 precinct ballots almost perfectly evenly between them. That's an astonishingly poor showing for Campbell, unless it's all about the particular precints that have reported.

by arenwin 2005-12-06 07:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: first up date

Actually, rather than Dem-leaning, I should have said anti-immigrant, shouldn't I? On a percentage change basis, seems like Gilchrist has picked up most of the Campbell's loss. Sigh. Not what I like to see in the nation of immigrants.

In any case, looks like there's a good chance of having a Republican come in under 50% in the OC, of all places. What a freakin' embarassment this could be for the GOP.

by arenwin 2005-12-06 07:54PM | 0 recs

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ehh.

a right-wing candidate and a far-right-wing candidate receiving 70% of the vote doesn't sound like it would be much of an embarrassment to them.

by johnny longtorso 2005-12-06 07:59PM | 0 recs

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Re: ehh.

Not an embarrassment to conservatives. An embarassment to Republicans. I don't expect conservatives to be embarrassed in a conservative county. But the Republican Party is an organization that, to be effective, has to be able to hold itself together. I mean it: if they can't hold 50% of the vote for their party in the OC, then they're a mess (much like the Nader vote in 2000 illustrated an underlying weakness in the Democratic party structure - and that was actually a rather small percentage).

And that does matter to us, whether it means they have to get wingnuttier to gain those votes back, or spend money to fend off crazies like Gilchrist, or whether it just means they're having problems organizing themselves and putting out a winning message.

by arenwin 2005-12-06 08:05PM | 0 recs

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Re: ehh.

I think the most positive part of this was that the Republicans had to drop a couple million on this "safe" seat.

by johnny longtorso 2005-12-06 08:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: ehh.

Yup, totally with you there.

by arenwin 2005-12-06 08:09PM | 0 recs

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Re: second up date

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 110 of 268
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 405655
Precinct Registration 405655
Precinct Ballots Cast 16530 4.1%
Early Ballots Cast 28 0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast 58266 14.4%
Total Ballots Cast 74824 18.4%

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 35719 47.9%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 20532 27.6%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 16422 22.0%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 1069 1.4%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 766 1.0%

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:02PM | 0 recs

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rather slow

They already have close to have in but have only reported 54

by orin76 2005-12-06 07:58PM | 0 recs

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All Votes have left Collection Center

All votes are either at or Currently on the way to the Register's office

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:12PM | 0 recs

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Campbell likely to win, here's my strategy

Spread the word to ALL progressive activists and get it up on the blogs!!!

Republicans waver, divided on Immigration..Their so-called "wedge issue" for 2006.

Gilchrist based his campaign on immigration and clearly split the vote significantly with Campbell. The message that needs to be sent out onto the airwaves is that Republicans are divided on immigration, one of the most important issues facing our country.

Counter-act with their own medicine. Spread the word!

by MinnyBean 2005-12-06 08:27PM | 0 recs

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All VOTES NOW AT REGISTERS

ALL THE VOTES HAVE NOW ARRIVED AT THE At Registrar of Voters office

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:29PM | 0 recs

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THird Update

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 178 of 268
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 405655
Precinct Registration 405655
Precinct Ballots Cast 27934 6.9%
Early Ballots Cast 28 0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast 58266 14.4%
Total Ballots Cast 86228 21.3%

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 39464 46.0%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 23419 27.3%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 20971 24.4%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 1160 1.4%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 841 1.0%

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: THird Update

Registration and Turnout
Completed Precincts: 268 of 268
Reg/Turnout Percentage
Total Registered Voters 405655
Precinct Registration 405655
Precinct Ballots Cast 34844 8.6%
Early Ballots Cast 28 0.0%
Absentee Ballots Cast 58266 14.4%
Total Ballots Cast 93138 23.0%

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 41450 44.7%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 25926 28.0%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 23237 25.1%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 1242 1.3%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 880 0.9%

by orin76 2005-12-06 08:41PM | 0 recs

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gives big dog a scooby snack

I think he fell asleep.

by goplies 2005-12-06 09:04PM | 0 recs

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Re: gives big dog a scooby snack

Hehe. Now I feel like an ass for pimping his diary over Ben's.

Ah well. Thanks for all the work you've done over the campaign, BigDog. Now... we sleep.

by HellofaSandwich 2005-12-06 09:19PM | 0 recs

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FLAME WAR!

THIS DIARY SUCKS! BEN114'S LIVE BLOGGING IS BEST!

by Gary Boatwright 2005-12-07 05:08AM | 0 recs

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Re: FLAME WAR!

Could a front page poster please take this diary down? Big Dog is probably sleeping in quite late and will undoubtedly write a more thorough analysis later today.

For what it's worth, I was sitting with Big Dog while he was live blogging. He asked me to watch his computer for a minute while he stepped across the room to talk to someone for a minute. My vigilence was careless and some bonehead reached across the rope Big Dog had set up to refresh his lap top for him.

Big Ooops! Big Dog's wifi link at the Mariott Hotel crashed. I told Big Dog I just wasn't prepared for such a blatant frontal attack from the peanut gallery over the ropes he had set up and he accepted my apology.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-12-07 06:03AM | 0 recs

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I want to apologize for not giving

a killer LIVBLOGGING sessin last nigh. Between the flu, the hours, the campaign etc. I just crashed out. I couldn't even get the damn formatting to work right and I was too tired to even straighten it out!

I will be back later today with a little more insite.

But get this for now: with absentee ballots out of the picture...only 8.6% of voters went to the polling place! 8.6%

by BigDog 2005-12-07 07:17AM | 0 recs

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Exactly right

Allow me to add that the difference between the absentee ballots and live ballots was Big Dog's primary focus last night. I don't have the raw numbers, but as I mentioned in another diary, it seems that there was a 30,000 vote difference in absentee ballots in Campbell's favor.

From my recollection, the raw numbers of Republican absentee ballots was over 35,000 votes. That is enough to nail down any low turnout special election before the voting even starts.

Again from memory, and using very rough ballpark estimates, Campbell had over 35,000 absentee votes. Young had about 6,000. There was no way to make up a 30,000 vote edge when the total votes were less than 100,000.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-12-07 07:55AM | 0 recs

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Re: I want to apologize for not giving

I thought you said low turnout was going to be a good thing for the Democrats- or was it just your hope that it would be low for everyone else?

by Archibald 2005-12-07 09:43AM | 0 recs

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ah crap

i was really pulling for you guys. but let me tell you (bigdog and gary and everyone else who blogged about this race): THANK YOU for getting involved and putting so much of your time into this effort. your posts were so much fun to read and follow, and i sincerely appreciate your efforts.

don't let this one get you down. you fought a good fight.

by annatopia 2005-12-07 08:23AM | 0 recs

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Hell, I'm stoked!

I don't have time right now to explain how impressive the coalition Young put together was. The way the Hispanic Farm Workers group and labor worked together with the PDA hotshots was a sight to behold. If Young had started out with a coalition like that a little support from the party it would have been a whole different story.

If Steve Young actually takes the plunge and commits to immediately start running again for the 2006 election we can really shake Orange County up. What I saw was a a Bi-lingual-Progressive Dem-Labor coalition that was really starting to gel.

Imagine California and Texas with Hispanics, Progessive Dems and Labor all pulling the same direction.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-12-07 09:22AM | 0 recs

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that would be awesome

and i'd be real interested to hear about how you managed to woo latino voters. the GOP has made serious inroads with the mexicans in texas (on the "moral values" crap), so if you tried something that seemed to work, hey, i'm all ears.

by annatopia 2005-12-07 09:27AM | 0 recs

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A "final" word on the election

Gary was right about the real story here. The energy at the campaign office was palbable. Too bad the Los Angeles Times couldn't have seen the human interest story in what happened at the Young campaign. We had grade schoolers eating pizza and putting stamps on hand written postcards that grandmas like me were addressing and signing. The labor guys were there. The soccer moms were there. I handled three precincts personally, walking them and contacting them personally for months. They did a complete turnaround and went for Steve in the final election. In the meantime, Campbell gained a whole 30 votes between the primary and the general! We were right all along. All we needed to do was to get Democrats out to vote. We improved, but we didn't quite do it.

One thing we badly need here and elsewhere is a voter education program. For instance, we got a lot of absentee ballot applications filled in, but they didn't realize they needed to check off an extra box to make it permanent. Now we have to do it all over again for those folks. We also got in a lot of applications too late. We needed to start earlier on that, and then we need to get people to understand that postmarks don't count -- that they have to fill out those ballots as soon as they get them and send them right in. It's a sad fact that in the last presidential election, (at least speaking of Las Vegas, where I went for ACT), only 11 percent of new registrations actually voted! Getting people registered and even getting them to register absentee isn't the whole story!

Sharon Toji
http://www.ocgrassroots.com

by SharonToji 2005-12-08 05:54AM | 0 recs