Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

This is the tracking poll that Clinton supporters were citing yesterday (was 46-43 for Clinton yesterday) to give themselves some "hope." Oh well, so much for that.

http://www.khou.com/news/local/politics/ stories/khou080227_tj_texaspoll.3a91068. html

Just one percentage point now separates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Texas. According to the second day of our exclusive 11 News Belo Texas poll, Clinton leads Obama, 46-percent to 45-percent. Because we have included an additional night of polling in our statistics, the margin of error has dropped to plus or minus 3.6 percent.

Data provided by our polling firm, Austin-based Public Strategies, Inc., indicates that Obama has done better among likely voters each night of our three-night poll. We will continue to interview likely voters at random each night through the election.

Here were my comments about this poll yesterday: http://www.mydd.com/comments/2008/2/27/19593/5677/54#54
So what will you all say if he ticks upward tomorrow in this tracking poll? You have NO IDEA what the trends are for this poll because this is the first time we've seen it. Obama could have been down 8 last week and now 3, tomorrow tied, etc, etc. We just don't yet know? by bigdcdem on Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 09:35:28 PM EST

Tags: clinton, obama, poll, texas (all tags)



Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

It's all going to be turnout in Texas, and despite what's happened in other states, there's no guarantee here that his core will vote any more than her Hispanic core.  We'll see.  I've seen some wildly disparate polls of how Hispanics will vote, and how many, etc.

One intriguing thing I've seen is that none of the polling done in the state (that I'm aware of) has a Spanish-only polling component. Some pollsters say that the amount of Spanish-only voters in Texas would be in the "low single digits", but even that might be enough to make a difference in a popular vote.  

As for trends, the question is: Will Obama peak, or will he continue to rise?  Who knows?  

by DaTruth 2008-02-28 01:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

As for trends, the question is: Will Obama peak, or will he continue to rise

That's the question. It's been asked eleven times in a row and the answer has been "yes he can" every time.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-28 01:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Beautiful. I don't know if I did the rate thing right but this comment was great.

by elrod 2008-02-28 03:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

It's all turnout -- twice.

As we've seen all over the country, he's going to dominate in the after-caucus.</P? <P>Hillary needs to win by eight points just to get even in the total delegate count. If he winds up winning by several points, it's going to be a delegate blowout.

by Katman 2008-02-28 01:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

i see a +75-85 delegate win for the night in TX

by pholkhero 2008-02-28 02:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Obama's supporters have started to slack off. For the first time, they have not met (or surpassed, for that matter) their phone banking efforts. In other words, things may have changed. OH and TX may be different. We, Obama supporters, may have a surprise coming if we don't keep up the work.

As an anecdote, I was in RI yesterday. (I'm actually from RI and voted absentee about 2 or so weeks ago). In the time that I was there, of the "very few" people I spoke with, no one had received a call from Obama's campaign.  However, I spoke with people who had been called by Clinton's folks. I though that was very unusual considering Obama's supposed great "on the ground" machine. I guess not in RI which migh explain Hillary' huge lead. Of course, it may just be that Obama has given up on RI or callers are more focused on TX and OH.  However, even if that is true, the fact that the Obama campaign is not meeting its overall target for calls does not look good at all. Hillary could pull a surprise if Obama's supporters keep talking about how we've already won this thing instead of GOTV.

That said, there s still time to meet and even surpass the GOTV effort. I just hope that people get their act together because if Hillary can win TX and OH, the delegate count won't matter. The media narrative will change completely.

by poserM 2008-02-28 01:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Obama has, bizarrely, ignored Rhode Island. I don't know why. He ignored us in Tennessee too and we're now one of about three states that prefers Clinton over McCain to Obama over McCain. In a state with, well, a lot of racial history, it's imperative that Obama show up here.

by elrod 2008-02-28 03:39AM | 0 recs
he's going to Rhode Island...

on Saturday.  In Texas until then.

by mboehm 2008-02-28 04:10AM | 0 recs
Re: he's going to Rhode Island...

Good to hear. It won't be enough to win the state, but it'll close the margin. Lots of students in Providence and Kingston will get mobilized for Obama.

by elrod 2008-02-28 04:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

I don't know if it matters.  She needs a big win.  If its close, he will probably win the delegate count in the state unless Clinton got better organizing the caucuses.  Maybe she needs to import the Nevada unions to help... they did an awesome job during the Nevada caucuses.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-28 03:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

I think a close loss for Obama could be considered a huge victory at this point.  It would be great if he could win Ohio and Texas both, but that is not required for his strategy to work.  All he has to do is stay close in the states that should be favorable for the Clintons (OH,TX,PA) and then glide to victory through a pledged delegate majority.

by Dumbo 2008-02-28 01:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Her'es an interesting tidbit:

However, "experience" is not one of the leading issues for voters in the Democratic primary. Our poll finds that, among people who describe themselves as likely to vote Democratic, experience is one of the least important traits they are looking for. Behind "understands the problems of people like you" (which Clinton beats Obama on by 20 points), "ethics and honesty" (which Obama beats Clinton on by 20 points), "strong leadership" (Clinton over Obama by 7), and "most likely to change Washington" (Obama 74-percent, Clinton 19-percent). "Experience" finishes fifth on the list.

by pholkhero 2008-02-28 02:38AM | 0 recs
He'll outspend them too

because he will opt out.  But his overwhelming of McCain will be long before the General Election in September.  Over the next 6 months of the primary campaign, the right-wing will not be able to compete.

by bigdcdem 2008-02-28 03:26AM | 0 recs
Change What ????

I keep hearing this nebulous "change" word thrown around and this fluff phrase, "Yes We Can." Well I have a few questions:  Change ... what? and Yes We Can ... what?  Obama is like a Rorschach Test, everyone sees what they want to in him.  No two people will ever give you the same answer to these quesitons, and BO doesn't even try to answer them. "Most likely to change Washington" how??????

by Edward3615 2008-02-28 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Change What ????

...and when I say "Yes we Can" is a fluff phrase, I mean no disrespect to the Farm Workers.  In that context it meant something concrete.

by Edward3615 2008-02-28 03:35AM | 0 recs
Well, Let's Take a Look...

(Clickety, click...)

OK, at BarackObama.com after you get past the first page there's an Issues menu. Waving your mouse over that lists: Civil Rights, Disabilities, Economy, Education, Energy & Environment, Ethics, Faith, Family, Fiscal, Foreign Policy, Healthcare, Homeland Security, Immigration, Iraq, Poverty, Rural, Service, Seniors & Social Security, Technology, Veterans, and Additional issues. Let's try Ethics...

OK, scroll down a bit and it says "Barack Obama's Plan." Below that subtitle there are 15 bullet points. Here's the first one as an example:

"Centralize Ethics and Lobbying Information for Voters: Obama will create a centralized Internet database of lobbying reports, ethics records, and campaign finance filings in a searchable, sortable and downloadable format."

That looks like a change to me, and there seem to be a lot of others.

Ain't the Internet grand?

by BBCWatcher 2008-02-28 03:56AM | 0 recs
Yes, reading is fundamental

by bigdcdem 2008-02-28 04:08AM | 0 recs

for one, you may have heard about a War in Iraq that the country want to change...

by fladem 2008-02-28 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Actually poll after poll has shown that the more voters see Obama, the more they like him.  But nice try.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-28 03:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

See as in personal appearances, etc.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-28 03:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

Obama will probably raise close to a billion dollars for his general campaign.  $1,000,000,000.  Mr Bomb Iran is locked into $85M in public financing.  Given that MoveOn and the Dem 527s will probably match the McCain campaing spending, are the wingnut 527s willing to spend $1,000,000,000 of their personal wealth to bridge the gap for a candidate that they are lukewarm about to start with?  Club-For-Growthers are super rich for sure, but a billion dollars is a LOT of money no matter how you slice it.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-28 04:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Texas Tracking Poll Shows Obama Rising

In that poll, Obama leads Hillary among those who have already voted by 6%.

by mecarr 2008-02-28 05:07AM | 0 recs


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