SUSA Underestimates Indies in OH and TX polls
by bigdcdem, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:46:53 PM EST
According to the AP exit poll:
"Early exit polls show independents are a sizable chunk of the electorate in presidential primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont.
In all those states except Rhode Island, Tuesday's primaries were ``open,'' meaning all voters could choose which party's contest to vote in. In Rhode Island, only registered independents could choose between parties.
The surveys for The Associated Press and television networks found self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.
Exit poll results for Republican primaries were available only in Ohio and Texas. In Ohio, independents were about one in seven GOP voters, in Texas one in five."
SUSA, in its final polls for both states, estimated that Indies would be 12% in Ohio (vs. 20% in the AP exit poll) and 13% (vs. 25% in the AP exit poll). Conclude from this what you choose.