New Zogby: Obama leads both OH & TX narrowly

3/3 tracking polls D=1460

Obama 47%
Clinton 44%

Obama 47%
Clinton 45%

In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.

Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday's polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.

In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.

Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.

Pollster John Zogby: The Democratic race has been neck-and-neck in both states, but it has been interesting to watch the volatility under way among Democrats in eastern Texas, which is the swing area of that state. There, one day Clinton would be leading, and the next, Obama would have the edge. Whoever wins east Texas on the Democratic side will win the state. But still, it is important to remember that, because Obama holds huge leads in the Dallas area and in Houston, even if he were to lose the state, the split of delegates will be roughly even between he and Clinton.

Tags: clinton, obama, Ohio, poll, texas, the Fat Lady is Warming Up, Zogby (all tags)



Hillary leads

Guess this means Hillary is ahead in both states.

by njsketch 2008-03-02 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary leads

Yes, she is headed to certain victory, just like every state since super tuesday. Unstoppable!

by mattw 2008-03-02 10:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary leads


And all the candles and prayers will help her to victory in 3 of the 4 states!

by mcctx 2008-03-02 11:32PM | 0 recs
Zogby is less

reliable than used toilet paper.  What a shame.  He started his career as a good pollster, and now he predicts inversely the outcome of every race.

by Beltway Dem 2008-03-03 01:29AM | 0 recs
Not necessarily

Zogby was completely wrong in California - largely because he missed early voting and undersampled Latinos. But he's been pretty decent in other states, which is why his SUSA rating is higher than Ras, M-D and others. Also note that Zogby picked up late pro-Clinton movement in NH and pro-Obama movement in Iowa.

by elrod 2008-03-03 03:30AM | 0 recs
Let's Call It a Draw

Could we all agree that, if the actual result on March 4th is a draw, that Senator Obama is our nominee?

Senator Clinton did need solid wins in both Texas and Ohio "firewalls," correct?

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-03 12:07AM | 0 recs
Re: New Zogby Polls

I don't trsut Zogby polls anymore! In fact it makes more nervous because the opposite always happens with Zogby's

by TheDonald 2008-03-03 01:04AM | 0 recs
Obama won CA by 13 points..

according to Zogby.

He also admits he saw Clinton's surge in NH and suppressed the results, even though he had been trumpeting one-day surges for Obama.

Now, reading this it looks like Obama's TX lead is based on a one day surge in his east TX polling. Typical Zogby.

Is it because his brother and chief analyst is an Obama super-delegate? Why do news organizations pay this guy? Perhaps they had pre-existing contracts and have no choice. Hopefully they have an accuracy clause in the contract.

by ineedalife 2008-03-03 02:43AM | 0 recs
It's Zogby

about as believable as the Suffolk U poll.

by zonk 2008-03-03 03:56AM | 0 recs
The TRUTH of the Matter is THIS..

...and the media seems to be FINALLY remembering it as well, some of it courtesy of Bill Richardson.

From the beginning, I have said (in agreement with neutral analysts) the truth is that HRC needs absolute BLOWOUTS.  In the absence of big BIG wins, she will need to win popular vote majorites by 70/30 to even come close to Obama in delegates.  Richardson, on face the nation indicated whoever has the delegate lead coming out of this Tuesday will be the nominee.

Now, should HRC win both TX and Ohio (though given Mark Penn's Email to the LA times, this seems unlikely), she can at least try to make the argument that Obama can't "put me away/close the deal".  But that argument isn't as strong as the delegate/momentum agrument that Obama will make in return.  Superdelegates like Richardson know the math and they know the reality of the situation.

Should Hillary split the two big states, the fact of the matter is this:


At that point, the pressure will be too great to continue.

Again, I want to reiterate my respect for HRC as a fixture in the USA and in policy-making.  While I am disappointed with her campaign's tactics and methods (attempting rule changes,photos, innuendo), I still like both her and Bill. What's more, if things go poorly for her on Tuesday, meaning no wins and/or no blowouts..I promise not to post ANYTHING here until the end of the week.    

by a gunslinger 2008-03-03 05:25AM | 0 recs


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