New Zogby: Obama leads both OH & TX narrowly
by bigdcdem, Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 09:10:03 PM EST
3/3 tracking polls
In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, but Obama has made gains in the last day among white voters, where the two are now tied.
Obama continues to enjoy a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 54% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas. But in the key swing area of east Texas, Obama has surged into a tie with Clinton. While he trailed her 45% to 38% just a day ago, it was Obama 45%, Clinton 44% in that area at the end of yesterday's polling, but the numbers in that region have been volatile.
In Ohio, there is very little movement as the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 54% to 39% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by a 51% to 42% edge. The Obama increase in support among men is likely what has moved him ahead of Clinton.
Obama continues to lead among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton remains strongest among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.
Pollster John Zogby: The Democratic race has been neck-and-neck in both states, but it has been interesting to watch the volatility under way among Democrats in eastern Texas, which is the swing area of that state. There, one day Clinton would be leading, and the next, Obama would have the edge. Whoever wins east Texas on the Democratic side will win the state. But still, it is important to remember that, because Obama holds huge leads in the Dallas area and in Houston, even if he were to lose the state, the split of delegates will be roughly even between he and Clinton.