New Ras TX and PA Polls [Nat # UPDATE]

The trends are clear.

Texas

Obama 48% (45%)(44%)(38%)
Clinton 44% (46%)(47%)(54%)

Current numbers (Sunday numbers) (last Thu numbers)(two weeks ago)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/texas/texas_democratic _presidential_primary

"Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton in Texas.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while Clinton earns 44%. Eight percent (8%) remain undecided and another 12% say it's possible they could change their mind. That latter figure includes 3% who say there's a good chance they could change their mind.

Obama leads by sixteen points among men, but trails by nine among women. Clinton's lead among Hispanic voters is down to seven percentage points."

Pennsylvania

Clinton 46%
Obama 42%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva nia_democratic_presidential_primary

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow advantage over Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential Primary. Clinton earns 46% of the vote while Obama earns 42%. Earlier polling by other firms had shown Clinton with a much larger lead in a state that was once considered favorable to her.

Clinton leads by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men."

Update [2008-2-28 11:17:41 by bigdcdem]:

Obama also surging in Ras's National Tracking Poll

Obama 49% Clinton 40%

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama opening a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now earns support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 40%. Other polling data released today provides more good news for Obama--the national frontrunner continues to gain ground in Texas and now has a slight lead in that critical state."

Tags: clinton, obama, poll, texas (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

That's similar to the Wisconsin trend lines.

Very interesting.

Only against Hillary Clinton would a candidate have to win or exactly tie the delegate count ten election days in a row in order to be decalred presumptive nominee. If the roles were reversed, Obama would have had to drop out long ago.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-28 06:00AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

If you read all hte major current polls...they are all diferent. Some say she has a huge lead iamong hispanics...some say less; some say she leads by 10 points or more amone women...some nly by 1...

Obviously no one knows what's really going to happen in Texas. it woulc be like WI or it could be very mcuh like California. We are all going to just have to wait and see.

by americanincanada 2008-02-28 06:02AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

Subsamples have much larger margins of errors than the overall poll does, so you would expect to see wider variation in those sorts of numbers (i.e., the breakdown for Hispanics, women etc.) than for the overall numbers.

When the race is done, the exit polls can be used to understand which groups went in what direction.

by mainelib 2008-02-28 06:29AM | 0 recs
TX more like WI than CA

The difference between WI and CA is that in CA Obama opted not to spend as much time and instead went around to a bunch of other states where he racked up huge wins to offset the defeat in CA. He had Michelle Obama, Oprah, the Kennedys, and surrogates go to CA and keep it close.

In WI he had a week to campaign there and ended up exceeding the polls (all of which had about a 4-8 point lead) turn into a 17 pt blowout.

Look what's happening now. He is spending time in TX, outspending her 3-1, and has a better groundgame. Plus, the national media is more focused on McCain vs. Obama right now. What that will do is drive down Hillary supporters enthusiasm.

by chatters71 2008-02-28 07:16AM | 0 recs
There are large margin of errors for subsamples

Take the Hispanic vote for example. Lets say that a standard poll has ~600 respondents. That's a 4% margin of error (at a 95% confidence level, which will be assumed throughout this comment) which is reasonable.

Lets say that the Hispanic vote is 25% of the sample. The margin of error is then double, up to 8%. So that's very unreliable except for the most general of patterns.

by MILiberal 2008-02-28 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

Now we know why this place is cesspool of bile-spewing today.

Did you know that John Lewis is a traitor?

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-28 06:02AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

Oh, I don't know about that. If the shoe were on the other foot and Obama was close to seeing his candidacy end, you would likely see the same kind of vitriol, I suspect.

I think in most cases, most candidate partisans can, ultimately, put their differences behind them and support the eventual nominee. I said "most" because there will be hardcore fgolks who will continue to try and undermine the Democratic nominee if that nominee is not their preferred candidate.

In this case, if Hillary loses, I suspect there will be a certain small portion of folks who will continue to try and undermine Obama because should he lose to McCain, they think Hillary could run again in 2012.

But that is a small number of fanatics.

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-28 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

And when Clinton is added to the ticket as VP next weekend, they'll be torn between their petulant inner 2YO that wants so badly to have a big hissy fit and their desire to support the most historic and progressive White House in history.

It's especially sad to see the old timers here who claim to be going to McCain or somewhere else instead of supporting Obama.  THEY really started this movement in 1968, and now when it is about to finally come to fruition after 40 years of struggling and mostly frustrating times, they're being petty and divisive and jumping off.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-28 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

I think there is very little chance of that happening (Clinton as VP).

by Bob Johnson 2008-02-28 06:22AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

I think the odds are higher than a lotof people are giving credit to.  It is certainly well within Obama's message of healing and unity to offer it to her first (and there are definite logistical positives to the offer as well - they represent very diverse and complementary support bases and bring very complementary strengths to the ticket, and she and Bill are fundraising champions to add to the billion dollars Obama will raise - imagine a race where the Dem ticket could outspend the GOP 15-1).  It would be using the bottom of the ticket to make sure to bring the whole base together, while letting the top of the ticket peel off the independents and inspire the new voters necessary to win the election.

I'm less convinced that she would take it, but I don't think that it's out of the realm of possibility, either.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-28 06:30AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls

Agreed, Bob. The Veep spot is strategic and there is little electoral value to gain.

That said, Obama has gone against common wisdom time and again and it's worked out for him time and again, so there is still soem chance that Hillary would be tapped. I think it could e eeasily framed along the lines of, "if something happened to the agent of change, somebody with broad experience will be needed to step in and take the reins during a time of sorrow." though such framing would be far superior to my feeble attempt.

by Walt Starr 2008-02-28 07:02AM | 0 recs
Everyone knows

That elections that haven't yet taken place have an inherent Obama bias.... just like southern states, small states, caucuses, midwestern states, plains states, and the rest.

It's pathetic that Obama is going to win this primary based on states that have yet to vote rather than a few select states that voted a month ago.

by zonk 2008-02-28 06:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Everyone knows

Reset your snarkometer...

by NJIndependent 2008-02-28 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls [Nat # UPDATE]

Please be kind to each other. I point out polls that have Obama ahead, I want this to end, I don't think Clinton can win on the numbers and I fear a floor fight like the plague.

The Clintons are heroes that ended long rethug rule, and kept them out. I dont know if we could have done better, but I so glad they won. I am grateful and humbled by their long service. I expect they will serve for a damn sight longer too. But I will always be grateful.

Be excellent to each each other.

Keep your eyes on the prize.

by inexile 2008-02-28 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls [Nat # UPDATE]

Everyone should recommend the "Say Something Nice About the Other Candidate" diary.  That is what this place needs stickied far more than the hit pieces currently on the rec list.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-28 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls [Nat # UPDATE]

Mojo because you quoted Bill and Ted!

by pastor john 2008-02-28 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: New Ras TX and PA Polls [Nat # UPDATE]

Hillary supporters, will you please explain to me how you expect Clinton to regain the delegate lead if the polls turn out to be true? HIllary Losing texas by 3%, winning Ohio by 4% and winning Penn by 4% would give her probably around 40 extra delegates. She'd still be behind 100 delegates Moreover, there is North Carolina where Obama has a double digit lead, he's leading in Indiana, will pick up Mississippi and Wyoming. How on earth could she win?

by mecarr 2008-02-28 07:18AM | 0 recs
Delegate strategy

Hillary's "big state" primary strategy was flawed from the start because of the Democrats' proportionate delegate selection rules.  Obama is getting much better delegate differentials from smaller states than Clinton can from the big states.  Hillary scr*wed herself; she has to blow Obama out of the water in the big states now, which just isn't going to happen.  Buh-bye!

by NM Ward Chair 2008-02-28 11:18AM | 0 recs
Hillary as VP a disaster

This election will come down to who wins white male independents who make up 7% of the electorate. Jim Webb is far more appealing than HRC to this critical swing vote.

by chatters71 2008-02-28 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary as VP a disaster

I can't imagine Hillary as VP. I don't think Obama would offer it to her, and if she did I doubt she'd take it. She'll be a good senator for new york though.

by mecarr 2008-02-28 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary as VP a disaster

I think either one of them needs to pick a "heavy" to be VP, like Bill Richardson or Mark Warner.  Richardson has the added benefits of being from the West (the swing region this time I think), a latino, and a governor.  All good things this time around.

Jim Webb seems like a natural fit for Obama except that he also suffers from having a rather short political resume.  He would help immensely with the military cred, but maybe not the elusive "gravitas" cred (whatever the the hell that means).

by the mollusk 2008-02-28 07:59AM | 0 recs
Richardson - not Obama's Veep

Obama won't pick Richardson as his VP.  He needs to downplay race.  Can you imagine the "Black and Tan" ticket?  Moreover, Richardson is gaffe-prone.

I think Richardson is better suited to be Secretary of State, anyway.

by NM Ward Chair 2008-02-28 11:13AM | 0 recs

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