Just saying you are misleadingly representing data.

Well, this is the last time I ever visit this site.

In 2004, about half of the polls - if not a majority of the polls - projected a similar margin to this polls.

This year, this is clearly the most pro-McCain outlier, actually by a fair margin. The next closest "pro-McCain" poll has the margin at 5% in favor of Obama.

And to top if off, success in '04 doesn't mean success in '08. Different polling companies do better in different years. For example, Zogby and CBS were the most accurate in '08.

He would have a turnout problem EVEN BEFORE he decided to gut his GOTV operation in favor of paid media.

Thats exactly right.

McCain is going have a problem with GOTV if he didn't decide to gut his operation to focus on TV advertising and direct mail.

Oh BTW - final NBC/WSJ has Obama 51, McCain 43

These polls were conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week - 10/28-10/29.

That AP poll is just impossible to reconcile with really all the other polling. I don't really understand it.

Jerome, I also think you are forgetting about Rasmussen as one of the best pollsters in '04. My sense is that Ras is pretty close to the real state of the race right now.

Not necessarily. I can see that scenario playing out, but I think a more comfortable Obama win is probably just as, if not more, possible.

Actually, I think Obama is going to comfortably win the popular vote. I do, however, thing he could well fall short in Ohio and Florida. I think there is an outside shot McCain wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote by a signifcant margin - I'm talking 4 to 5%. Now THAT would cause a bit of a scandal.

That said, I think Nevada is going Obama. I think pollsters tend to overpoll Republicans in western states. And Obama is way outperforming Kerry in the early voting.

I thought the primary campaign going on as long as it did was very good for Obama. I really think this now. I kinda thought it at the time.

I was actually giving Clinton money in Feb/Mar to keep her in for several reasons - because I wanted to see Obama fully "vetted" I felt that if Clinton could beat him, he didn't deserve it anyway. I was also nervous about all the baggage that might come up and I just felt Clinton represented less of a risk. However, there were things about Obama I liked better. On balance, I wanted to play it safe.

I was basically undecided throughout the primary season. As such, I thought it would actually be beneficial for the party to have a tough primary fight. It is clear now that it was.

I agree, to an extent with sentiment.

If you look at the trendlines, Ohio is going to be the toughest nut to crack and I do think this poll - as it has - overstates Obama's support there.

HOWEVER, PA is not a toss up state. Obama is going to win there. He has led basically every poll in PA since June. People need to understand that PA is considerably more liberal than Ohio and even to an extent Michigan. I've lived in both OH and PA, trust me. Eastern PA, even outside Philly metro, which is 40% of the state's voters, is probably a much closer match to NJ or NY. Western PA is much more like Ohio. But nevertheless, this makes PA a state that is fundamentally better for Obama.

As to FL, I wouldn't take anything for granted. But real movement has occurred there and if the election were today, Obama would win the state. That doesn't mean it won't swing back either. But FL is a state McCain cannot lose.

Really, McCain is on the back foot right now. Ohio and Florida are states McCain has to win, but Obama doesn't. And he's losin them both right now - at least he's certainly losing FL.

6 out of 7 polls say about the same thing, 1 doesn't.

Are you also going to discount the Ras state polls that just came out too that show Obama actually IMPROVING in two of the states sampled?

For reference -

PA Obama 47, McCain, 45
VA Obama 47, McCain 49
FL Obama 48, McCain 48
OH Obama 44, McCain 51
CO Obama 49, McCain 46

If those are the numbers on the night of Nov 4 this year, Obama wins the election. And they were taken on Sunday just after the GOP convention.

Rasmussen, BTW, was the most accurate pollster in both '04 and '06 on a state by state basis.

Its not a knock out blow by any means - at least not as the story stands - but it is not a pretty story for McCain, as it ties in to past unseemly behavior - its starts to create an image of McCain as a leacherous mysogynist. Remember, Cindy McCain is a product of an affair too - and 17 years his junior. This fits a pattern of his behavior, which is dumping women for younger women, more attractive women as they age. This does not make him look good, especially to female voters.

According to the recent batch of national polling, yes.  Most recent first.

CNN/Opinion Research:

Obama 52, McCain 45
Clinton 50, McCain 47

Cook Political Report:

Obama 45, McCain 43
McCain 45, Clinton 41

ABC/WaPo:

McCain 50, Clinton 45
McCain 48, Clinton 47

Fox News:

McCain 45, Clinton 44
Obama 44, McCain 43

are basically mainstream liberal to moderate Democrats today.

But this doesn't mean their work as historians should thus be discarded or somehow viewed as suspect. Indeed, I tend to view as more suspect people who right about historical events from which they have little emotional distance - at least if your criteria is History (with a capital H).