Pew Has Obama Up by Five
by Beltway Dem, Fri Aug 01, 2008 at 07:07:01 AM EDT
Barack Obama 47
John McCain 42
As Brian Schaffner from pollster.com observed the other day:
Obama has consistently led in national polls over the past two months. In fact, according to national poll results listed on Pollster.com, Obama had been tied or ahead in 50 consecutive national polls through Sunday. Sure, many polls may show Obama holding a lead within the statistical margin of error, but if Obama and McCain were actually tied, we'd expect as many polls showing McCain ahead as show Obama ahead. Based on some basic calculations, the probability that 50 consecutive national surveys would show Obama tied or ahead if the candidates were actually tied is .0000000000000009. In short, this race is not a "statistical tie," despite what a few scattered surveys (drawing disproportionate attention from the pundits) indicate.