New IA poll: Edwards 30, Clinton 22, Obama 18, Richardson 13
by areyouready, Thu Aug 16, 2007 at 02:51:16 PM EDT
Dailykos is touting a new IA poll on their frontpage. Take it with a grain of salt...
The "ONE Poll--Iowa" was conducted on August 2 and 3, 2007, and has an overall margin of error of ±4.3%.
Iowa polls are all the map, I am not sure how legitimate this poll is... There are basically two different sets of pictures emerging from these polls. The first set is that all three frontrunners are bunched together at around 27, 28 points. The second set is that Edwards is still ahead, Clinton is in a solid second place and Richardson is closing in on Obama's third place... Interesting!
NYT has a diary debunking Hillarys 'high negativity' myth.
When Karl Rove said yesterday that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's unfavorable rating was in the "high 40s," he may have been looking at an old poll. And when he said no one had been elected with negatives as high as hers, he had apparently forgotten some recent history.
The most recent CBS News poll, conducted from Aug. 8 to Aug. 12, showed Mrs. Clinton's unfavorable rating at 39 percent. That number has been falling bit by bit since its high mark of 46 percent in April. That 46 percent was the highest negative rating measured by The New York Times and CBS News since the two news organizations began polling about Mrs. Clinton in 1992.
Over the last few months as her negative ratings have fallen, her positive ratings have fluctuated, with the most recent poll showing that 41 percent of voters have a favorable view of her.
So, contrary to what Mr. Rove said on Rush Limbaugh's radio program, her unfavorable rating is about 10 points lower than where he thought it was and her favorables are higher than her unfavorables, although barely.
His point was this: "There's nobody who has ever won the presidency who started out in that kind of position."
In fact, Mrs. Clinton's husband was in that very position and did win. And Mrs. Clinton's numbers are better than his were at this point in his first campaign for the White House.
In April 1992, only 26 percent of voters had a favorable view of Bill Clinton, while 40 percent viewed him unfavorably, according to a Times/CBS poll. By June 1992, his favorables had plunged further, so that only 16 percent had a favorable opinion, with 40 percent still unfavorable.
After Mr. Clinton won the nomination and after his convention, his favorable rating began to rise. By October 1992, his ratings had become about even, with 34 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable.
The situation is a little different for Senator Barack Obama, Mrs. Clinton's closest competitor for the Democratic presidential nomination, whom voters view as more "likeable" than Mrs. Clinton.
In the CBS poll, 36 percent of voters have a positive view of Mr. Obama while 20 percent have a negative view.
So while his negatives are lower than hers, so are his positives.
But the two sets of numbers are not directly comparable because Mr. Obama is not as well known as Mrs. Clinton.
Asked about Mr. Obama, 27 percent of voters said they were undecided about whether they feel positively or negatively toward him, and 17 percent said they had not heard enough about him to say.
Asked about Mrs. Clinton, 19 percent said they were undecided about how they feel, and just 1 percent said they had not heard enough about her to judge.