These days everybody is talking about delegates from making predictions on who will win the most delegates to debating whether delegates from Michigan and Florida will be seated.  

Well, believe it or not, there is actually a delegate allocation formula that the states have to follow when awarding delegates; and that formula is detailed in the Regulations of the Rules & Bylaws Committee for the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

Today, using those DNC regulations, I'm going to attempt to explain exactly how the delegates are allocated at the district-level and the state-wide level.

According to the Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Georgia has a grand total of 87 pledged delegates (57 district-level, 19 at-large, and 11 Party Leader & Elected Officials [PLEOs])[Source:  Appendix B, Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention].  For the purposes of allocating these 87 pledged delegates to a particular candidate, let's use the October 24, 2007 Strategic Vision poll for the 13th Congressional District results and the January 10, 2008 Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Mason-Dixon poll for the statewide results.  

In Georgia's 13th Congressional District, there are 6 delegates and 1 alternate to be elected [Source:  page 6, Georgia Delegate Selection Plan for the 2008 Democratic National Convention].  According to the October 24, 2007 Strategic Vision poll, Hillary Clinton received 40%, Barack Obama received 27%, and John Edwards received 11%.  Now let's say that in Georgia's February 5th Democratic Presidential Preference Primary, 1,000 votes are cast in the 13th district.  Using the October Strategic Vision numbers, Hillary would receive 40% of 1,000 (or 400 votes), Obama would receive 27% of 1,000 (or 270 votes), and John Edwards would receive 11% of 1,000 (or 110 votes).

Appendix B of the Regulations of the Rules & Bylaws Committee for the 2008 Democratic National Convention tells us how the 6 delegates and 1 alternate from Georgia's 13th Congressional District would be allocated.

First, Rule 13.B. of the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Convention says that "States shall allocate district-level delegates and alternates in proportion to the percentage of the primary or caucus vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates." John Edwards, having received 11% of the vote in the 13th district, is not eligible for any delegates, so his votes are dropped and the vote totals for the remaining candidates above the 15% threshold are re-calculated along with their percentage of the vote:

Total Votes Cast (re-calculated) - 400 + 270 = 670

Hillary Clinton:  400/670 = 0.597

Barack Obama:  270/670 = 0.403

As you can see, under the re-calculated percentages, Hillary receives 59.7% of the vote and Obama receives 40.3% of the vote.

Now you multiply the new percentages by the total number of delegates and alternates allocated to Georgia's 13th Congressional District:

GA-13:  6 delegates, 1 alternate

Hillary Clinton:  6 x 0.597 = 3.582 (or 4 delegates)

1 x 0.597 = 0.597 (or 1 alternate)

Barack Obama:  6 x 0.403 = 2.418 (or 2 delegates)

1 x 0.403 = 0.403 (or 0 alternates)

Next, let's look at Georgia's at-large delegates, alternates, and pledged PLEOs.

According to the Georgia Delegate Selection Plan for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, our state has 19 at-large delegates, 5 at-large alternates, and 11 pledged Party Leaders & Elected Officials (PLEOs) [Source:  page 1, Georgia Delegate Selection Plan for the 2008 Democratic National Conventon].  In the January 10th AJC/Mason-Dixon poll, Barack Obama received 36%, Hillary Clinton received 33%, and John Edwards received 14%.  Once again, let's use the number 1,000 as the total number of votes cast statewide and calculate the number of votes each candidate received.

Hillary Clinton:  0.330 x 1,000 = 330 votes

Barack Obama:  0.360 x 1,000 = 360 votes

John Edwards:  0.140 x 1,000 = 140 votes.

Again, John Edwards failed to achieve the 15% viability threshold, so his votes are dropped and the total number of votes cast and percentages are re-calculated:

Total Votes Cast (re-calculated) - 330 + 360 = 690

Hillary Clinton:  330/690 = 0.478

Barack Obama:  360/690 = 0.522

Under the re-calculated percentages, Hillary receives 47.8% and Obama receives 52.2% percent.  Now for the at-large delegates and alternates, let's multiply by the new percentages:

Georgia State-wide:  19 delegates, 5 alternates

Hillary Clinton:  19 x 0.478 = 9.082 (or 9 delegates)

5 x 0.478 = 2.39 (or 2 alternates)

Barack Obama:  19 x 0.522 = 9.918 (or 10 delegates)

5 x 0.522 = 2.61 (or 3 alternates)

Finally, let's allocate Georgia's 11 pledged Party Leaders & Elected Officials (PLEOs).

Rule 9.C.2. of the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules for the Democratic National Convention says, "Following the selection of unpledged add-on delegates under 8.B., pledged party leader and elected official delegates are to be selected subject to the following procedures:

These slots shall be allocated on the same basis as the state's at-large delegates." What that means is using the same percentages from the allocation of at-large delegates and alternates, we multiply once more.

Georgia Party Leaders & Elected Officials (PLEOs):  11

Hillary Clinton:  11 x 0.478 = 5.258 (or 5 delegates)

Barack Obama:  11 x 0.522 = 5.742 (or 6 delegates)

The resulting delegate count is as follows:

Hillary Clinton: 18 delegates (4 district-level, 9 at-large, 5 PLEOs) and 3 alternates (1 district-level, 2 at-large)

Barack Obama: 18 delegates (2 district-level, 10 at-large, 6 PLEOs) and 3 alternates (0 district-level, 3 at-large)

This is how the delegates, alternates, and PLEOs will be allocated in each state after their respective primary and/or caucus, and I have to admit that the formula is pretty convoluted.

Any questions?