Yeah, you broke MyDD. On my Firefox at least.

Expect some bad polls when the sample was taken during the Wright controversy.

Upland South loses don't surprise me in the least for Obama.  I think his supporters are correct in saying that he'll do well in the Kerry states, but, as we all unfortunately know, you need more than that to win a general.

I'm really surprised to see Obama lose that badly in Missouri though, I must say.  I didn't think he'd win it, but I thought he'd perform about as well as Kerry did.

It's always worth noting though that these really are too far out to mean much, but I'm still surprised...

Yea, here are my thoughts.  Relying on any poll this far out from November is useless.  If this was October, then they would have more weight.  The fact is, Hillary runs her entire campaign on her "experience".  If she runs against McCain her whole campaign argument falls apart.  What else does she have to run on?  I'm not trying to bash her, I'm just asking an honest question.

WOW!
but I don't know how these state polls were trending previously.

In the middle of an absolutely terrible news cycle, Obama's numbers have decreased significantly in Ohio and somewhat in Missouri.  He's never been close in Kentucky.  Clinton loses the latter two as well.  

It's not good news for my candidate, certainly, but it hardly presages the kind of electoral disaster you're talking about.  The previous SurveyUSA 50-state poll showed Obama losing all of these states, if memory serves, but still getting more electoral votes than Senator Clinton.  Not sure how this really changes anything significantly.  

In other words, I hope the party is looking at the GE like you are and not just focusing only on the primary.

They are basically tied in the Ohio RCP average of all polls, so I don't know if this one poll matters so much.

Wait for NJ & MA next week.

The numbers will be scary !

These are Blue states going Red with Obama as nominee. ( NJ,MA,PA)

Two weeks ago, Obama would lose NJ by 6 pts.
Clinton would win NJ by 11 pts.

It should even be more now.

Its All about REAGAN DEMOCRATS!

MO,OH,KY,NJ,MA,PA - States with Millions of White Reagan Democrats.

Can you imagine when the actual GOP attacks start in September?

I had a thought: I know Zogby's including Nader, should SUSA move that way too?  If it does, what's it looks like for all candidates?

if Obama is the nominee we can kiss the whitehouse goodbye.

This is exactly the kind of thing the SDs were created for.

Obama supporters.

Stop Denying what your gut tells you.

It is virtually impossible for Obama to fix his PROBLEM with White working class reagan democrats.

It was a big problem before Wrightgate. It is now a serious problem.

You think millions of working class whites will have Tears in their eyes & a vision of Racial Reconciliation & just vote for Obama come November?

Obama cannot win in november!

As much as I don't like that this wright thing is hurting Obama, because I do think there is a general misunderstanding of black churches in white communities, its still reality, and he will lose because of it. He should have been smarter about this, that speech will not stop the attacks from 527's (McCain won't do it himself, just watch)

...however this is polling done in the midst of a scandal.   I want to see if he recovers over the next few weeks or not.  One tracking poll is showing  that, one isn't, so I'm going to be nervous for a while.

Funny, I was watching her, too. She'll be the canary in the coal mine. The minute she says something that might suggest she really is more undecided that fully in the Obama camp, the landslide will begin. Watch for it.

killer, even if not during primaries, in G.E, he cant survive multiple ads in heavily white states with Wright ranting in them, and then a catch line ala "Is this the change we can expect?"  or "This is what you call unifying the country?"  You know, the GOP will win if we choose Barack as nominee because of Wright, its like 04 ALL over again, except this time, WE KNOW! So let's stop it from happening.

Yes, Senator McCaskill is in a bad spot. She probably was getting some grief from die-hard Clinton supporters in Missouri. After the Wright controversy she is probably thinking that she jumped the ship too soon politically.

But maybe she really does want Senator Obama as President.

When Obama fans were shouting Obama is more electable than Clinton, I was pointing out that at that point in the election 4 yrs back Kerry was on his way to White House. So that disclaimer still applies. All opinion polls begin with a misstatment-

``If election were held today ...''

What this says to me, more than anything, is that the extended primary battle is benefiting McCain and hurting both Obama and Clinton, at least in the short term.

In the long term... hmm, not sure it means anything.  You could look at it as John McCain + 1 Democrat vs your preferred choice, with your preferred choice unable to really respond to McCain effectively because they're stuck responding to the Democrat.  Once we have an actual nominee, these numbers will start to mean a bit more.

Thoughts? yes... this is fantastic!  Hillary is surging, and polls show she holds more of Obama's voters than he holds of hers.  This ain't over yet!

Now, let me get this straight -- are you saying "Big Obama" Losses or are you saying Big "Obama Losses" or are you really saying Big, Obama, Losses? There is a difference. ;)

As an Obama supporter i must say this has been the roughest days of the campaign so far, even more so then post NH.  I still want him to win the nomination as i don't think Hillary can win, and i like Obama much more, but even i am very pessimistic about November now.  These are such huge turnarounds in such short time, i don't know if he can recover.

nominate Hillary.

The difference between the polls in Missouri and Ohio is because if Obama is the nominee, 25-28% of Democrats say they would vote for McCain while 10-12% would vote for McCain if Clinton were the nominee.  I don't think 25% or 28% is at all realistic - most Democrats will come home after the heat of the primary has cooled.

Good numbers for Clinton, bad numbers for Obama, but it's FREAKING March.

McCaskill cannot say a peep without consulting her 18 year old daughter, don't you know that???

Re: poll, did they, unlike most news organizations, allow votes from St. Louis to be counted in the poll?

That is snark, but the truth is that as we saw on primary night, respected orgs like AP & NPR make projections in Missouri without bothering to count a single viote in St. Louis or St. Louis County, only about 35% of the state.  I wonder if St. Louis is included in the polling models.  Seriously.

If this is true I think it does send a pretty clear message to any up and coming Black Pol, join the GOP, then when you join a white church it wont hurt and you can win.

I never lived in MO or KY but I spent my first 20 years of life in Ohio and my entire Democratic family lives there and Obama will NEVER win Ohio and no it won't be a close race either. The result will be similar to Hillary vs Obama in that state.

What about MO??? Where is Claire McCaskill??? She said Obama can win MO but Hillary cannot. Guess what Claire you backed the wrong horse

I don't think that anyone should be celebrating this, considering that there is a 99%+ chance that Obama is going to be the nominee.

MO and OH are troubling, KY not so much; a loss is a loss is a loss.

How can you take polls seriously in the middle of one of the worse crisis for Obama.  I think I will wait a couple of weeks and see how the polls are then.  

Does SurveyUSA have Electoral College maps?

Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com

Let's wait a couple weeks on this. If polls in a couple weeks show similar numbers then Obama is in trouble. The Wright issue was a real shock to people. I thought Obama handled it masterfully but we'll have to see what low information voters think of it after Obama's speech gets played and replayed.  It'll take a week or so before the electorate completely processes it, including his magnificent speech.

When this poll was conducted, many people honestly thought Obama held the same paranoid views of his pastor. Now, no thinking person does. The question that remains is why did he stick with a pastor he disagrees with.  He dealt with that in the speech and we'll see if voters bought it. But 2 says ago the situation was much more precarious than it is now.

I think until the Dems finally have their nominee or until they both ban together to take on McCain, while still battling amongst each other, their poll numbers on going to drop.  McCain is basically getting a free pass, b/c most of the focus is on Clinton and Obama.  That keeps his likeability and the public perception of him relatively positive.  He gets to sit on the sidelines for the next five months and watch the Dems tear each other apart.  That is something that has to change.

Who would have thought it.........
A "BLACK MAN" losing ground in the Hillbilly States of America!

Before y'all get super excited...

His poll numbers should be expected to take a major hit this week.  It will probably get worse, actually...

Now, if his poll numbers stay this low two weeks from now?  Then you can hoot and holler, 'cos we have a permanently damaged candidate that has an overwhelming lead in delegates... how we get out that mess without destroying the party is going to be something you guys are going to have to explain to me...

Regardless, there is no cause for celebration when a fellow democrat has been kneecapped.  It hurts the party as a whole...

That poll showing will come to pass. As for Kentucky, I NEVER imagined Obama will win there. As for Ohio, he'll win Ohio if he picks the Governor as Veep candidate!

http://OsiSpeaks.com

Neither Hillary nor Obama was going to carry Kentucky and I think that Missouri is a narrowish loss for either, albeit with different splits on demographics.

But sifting all the poll numbers, I believe very much that Hillary has a good chance of carrying Ohio and Obama has none.

Furthermore, it scares the crap out of me that Obama puts Pennsylvania and New Jersey into play with McCain as the nominee.

The idea that Obama as the Democratic candidate has the capability of leading to a "transformational" landslide election is sheer nonsense.  He may eke out a narrow victory in the EC or he may not; Ohio alone makes Hillary the surer bet.  In addition, I think she puts Florida in play and keeps Pennsylvania and New Jersey out of play.

other surprises that will pop out like this in G.E.  

ALSO, Obama has 1 bad week of press and he plummets, Hillary has endured MONTHS of bad press, and her numbers stay pretty good. It's because people dont know Obama, he will lose because of surprises like this...

Obama is fighting a two front war just so that she can chase her pipe dream. In my calmer moments, I say that they can't decide the race until it clear beyond a doubt that she cannot win....that this is the only way that the Hillary supporters stay on board. But as it becomes clear that her strategy is to tear him down and leave the party in disarray, I find myself imploring them to do the deed now before it's too late.

So much for that electability. Look until there is a certain nominee I think both Democrats will be somewhat hampered in these general election polls due to the uncertainty, but this is not a good sign for Obama. A month ago Obama was doing quite a bit better than Hillary in these polls, so it's quite a turn around to be doing that much worse in Ohio and Missour which are big battleground states.

about his 17% lead roughly around this time in the '88 campaign.

So let me get this straight:

Obama is one point down on Hillary in one state (clearly the most important of the three, and a one-point difference is way within MOE), badly in a second (probably his second-least-favorable state), and middling in a third. All of them states McCain's winning anyway, as of right now.

Diary title should be: Survey USA Poll: Big Democrat losses

Seems to me what you've said is that both candidates are going down in flames. Of course, it is March, and Obama's numbers are very likely at a situational low from which we're already seeing a rebound... but don't let reality intrude on you.

Look at the Demographics in Ohio

Clinton leads among Men, Women, All Age Groups, Blacks, ties Whites.

Obama trails among Men, Women, All Age Groups except 18-34 (48/47), trails by 19 points among Whites (37/56).  leads among Blacks.

McCain gets 25% of Dems vs. McCain.  When vs. Clinton McCain wins just 10% of Dems.

Here's the fundamental self-serving falacy that the Hillary supporters now reveling in the Wright fallout fail to understand:

By the time of the general, this issue will be as buried as the hundred Clinton scandals out there.

So the question doesn't come down to a "clean" candidate vs. a candidate with the Wright stigma.

It is a choice between a candidate that can be made to look like a racist through questionable associations with a made-up pastor image, or one that can be made to look like a murdering, drug trafficking, terrorist pardoning, land dealing crook who let Al-Quaeda run away and was responsible for 9/11.

Nobody in the Obama campaign will mention it, because they have the class to understand that democrats aren't supposed to tear each other down.

But you'd better think about it for a bit before you decide on who would be the best candidate.

riiiight, this will all go away and we'll never ever hear about this awful Wright stuff again!  

not good news for Obama - it probably moves his numbers to only slightly better in the electoral college than Clinton rather than much better.

If the trend continues for more than 2 states in one survey (Kentucky is not likely to go blue regardless), she will become more electable than he will.  Which is kind of depressing for dems, given how few states she is solidly ahead of Mccain in.

But I think we can tell who will win the Kentucky primary by looking at these results:

             Democrat
McCain 34%        McCain 48%
Clinton 60%       Obama 41%
Undecided 6%      Undecided 11%

Assuming there is nothing incriminating in the Clintons' tax returns for the last 7 years, Hillary is in great shape! Which is to say she's got a slim chance.

Obama is the candidate. So we have a thread full of people cheering for the defeat of our Democratic nominee. Get your head in the game guys. The enemy is the Republican party.

All folks posting here...
you certainly had a chance to show up to a simple rally or vigil in your place to mark this horrid anniversary......
If YOU are not willing to take a visible stand of resistance...why ask your candidate to do more?

Who could guess what Obama's game plan is to win in Nov.

-That no Democrat will win KY
-That I would be very interested to see the current state of places like VA, CO, IA, NV where Obama has run better
-That we have plenty of time to determine how Reagan Democrats react, let's revisit in three weeks
-That Clinton holds the base better but Obama attracts more crossover voters; any intelligent discussion should present both those facts
-That if Obama doesn't recover Clinton will win PA BIG as well as OR and IN; then the supers would have a genuine dilemma
-That any decision should account for MN, WI, PA, NJ, etc.
-That I wonder whether Clinton takes Obama as VP in such a scenario
-That no matter what I'll remember McCain's recent comments and show up to vote against a third term for Bush.

These are bad news for Obama. There's something that people need to face: Obama will not recover from this. And Wright is just the appetizer for the GOP. They haven't even started on all the other stuff.

This will be a "pick-up" state for the Dems with HRC and a retained state for the GOP vs. Obama.

Hillary fans won't consider voting for Obama and vice versa. It doesn't matter who it shows on top, the polls are meaningless until one of them drops out.

She was quoted in an article in the Kansas City Star today I think.

No, she said something all right. The dumbest thing possible. http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/1055 1 "He, for the first time, I think, as a black leader in America, has come to the American people not as a victim, but rather as a leader." Wow, what a kick in the teeth to Jesse Jackson, MLK, Malcom X....