Hastert and Reynolds were both considered decently safe (as was Shimkus). I guess that's out the window?

Someone should set up a Dateline-like sting and chat with him on AOL Instant Messenger.

I only wish there was a really ugly late primary between all three of them.

Don't count your ballots before they're "counted".

And secondly, if the GOP makes a concerted effort to remind their followers to vote for Foley (so the votes can be transferred to, say, State Sen. Jeff Atwater), we may well see this one stay Republican.

If the Republicans know to "vote for Foley" (but not really), they'll do it. Mass confusion is the only way we win this seat.

So what's the rumor mill? If this district map passes the Utah legislature, what are its chances of not being killed in Congress?

No, I think the proposed new Utah seat is statewide at-large, isn't it?

Early Prediction:

Gov: Ritter 53-47 (it'll tighten up)
CD-7: Perlmutter 54-46 (a big tightening up. Why? O'Donnell has tons of money and appears to be waiting to pounce near the end with it.)

Dems keep the legislature. Thus a trifecta on state government and a 4-3 majority in the congressional delegation.

No one knows. We'll find out during the next few election cycles, I guess.

On anecdotal evidence alone (yeah, I know, that doesn't mean much), I have noticed a lot of my friends in L.A. leaving the state (for the usual reasons -- money, basically). Most of my friends are Democrats, of course, so it shows that there are plenty of Democrats leaving California too.

Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado will all go blue in 2008 if we have a decent presidential candidate. In 2006, I expect Nevada to keep a Dem Assembly, New Mexico to keep Dem Gov and Leg, and Colorado to elect a Dem Governor and keep the Dem Leg.

Didn't they oversample Democrats? This is a decidedly conservative district.

In HI-2, Mazie Hirono is barely leading Colleen Hanabusa for the Dems, and surprisingly Bob Hogue is barely leading Quentin Kawananakoa (did I get that right? Geez it's a long name) for the GOP.

Democratic primary turnout appears to be substantially bigger than GOP primary turnout. End of the "Hawaii trending red" meme?

Are you related to Harry?

I was raised basically in an agnostic home. I am white, but part-Hispanic. Help!

This generation gap theory is quite too. Silent and Boomer forecasters seem to think the Democrats have it locked up. Gen-X and Millennial forecasters are cautious and conservative with their projections. Not because they are more Republican, certainly not in the case of Millennials, but because they have grown up with more GOP than Dem victories. As a Millennial, I can attest that I am much more of a cautious forecaster because of my experiences than my Boomer parents.

Good. I want Graf to win!