Primaries 2006: State by state

by Ament Stone of California, Wed Jan 18, 2006 at 02:34:58 PM EST

Great info. All you political junkies should bookmark this post. I know I will--Chris

I can't do a full rundown of my famous and popular House 2006 analysis until the FEC fundraising numbers are all released. I know, I was hoping to do it this week. But the FEC numbers aren't out yet, so...

Instead, I thought it would be useful to provide a guide to the primaries in each state and which primaries in particular will be interesting. I am not including state offices like Attorney General or Secy of State. Only Governor, Senator, and interesting House races. Note that I am passing over some potentially competitive primaries (like RI-Sen, NV-Gov, and OR-Gov) and only including what I view as the most interesting or close.

Read...

Texas - March 7

28th Congressional District - Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) is getting a tough challenge from former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, whom Cuellar defeated in 2004 after the redistricting. Rodriguez is much more liberal than Cuellar. Whichever man triumphs will win in November, as no Republican is running.

Illinois - March 21

6th Congressional District - State Sen. Peter Roskam is the GOP heir apparent to 32-year veteran Henry Hyde, but the Dem primary is competitive between 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis and Iraq war Major Tammy Duckworth. You guys all know this one, and most of you have chosen a camp already (so have I).

8th Congressional District - Rep. Melissa Bean (D) is unopposed on her side of the aisle, but Republicans have a migraine-inducing primary on their hands. Your guess is as good as mine.

Indiana - May 2
North Carolina - May 2

Ohio - May 2

13th Congressional District - The real primary here is on the Dem side, where at least four people are probably running: 2004 OH-14 nominee Capri Cafaro, former Rep. Tom Sawyer, and former State Rep. Betty Sutton. Nobody knows yet who is the favorite.

Nebraska - May 9

Governor - The GOP battle royale is between Gov. Dave Heineman and Rep. Tom Osborne. Whoever wins is virtually guaranteed a big victory in November, but at least this primary can keep our attention.

West Virginia - May 9
Kentucky - May 16
Oregon - May 16
Pennsylvania - May 16
Arkansas - May 23

Idaho - May 23

1st Congressional District - The GOP field is huge and scattered. Whoever triumphs will cruise in November, but who will that be?

Alabama - June 6

Governor - Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D) should crush corrupt former Gov. Don Siegelman (D), so the real interest is on the GOP side, where Gov. Bob Riley (R) is getting a tough fight from former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. Moore's base is the fundies, who make up the biggest part of Alabama's Republican Party base. Will he win? Maybe not, but if he keeps it close Riley could be in real trouble heading into the autumn.

California - June 6

Governor - Do the Dems pick State Treasurer Phil Angelides or State Controller Steve Westly to take on the Ahnoldt?

Iowa - June 6
Mississippi - June 6

Montana - June 6

Senate - The two Dems are State Auditor John Morrison and State Sen. Jon Tester. This is a classic battle between DLC favorite Morrison and grassroots progressive Tester. I know that most in the blogosphere would like Tester, but the only voters that count here are the Dems in Montana.

New Jersey - June 6
New Mexico - June 6
South Dakota - June 6
Maine - June 13
North Dakota - June 13
South Carolina - June 13
Virginia - June 13
Utah - June 27
Georgia - July 18
Oklahoma - July 25
Kansas - August 1

Tennessee - August 3

Senate - The Democrat will almost certainly be Rep. Harold Ford (D), but the Republican three-way contest is much tougher to call. Is it Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, former Rep. Van Hilleary, or former Rep. Ed Bryant?

9th Congressional District - The Dem field is huge in this heavily black, heavily Democratic open seat in Memphis. I can't even remember all the names.

Colorado - August 8

7th Congressional District - Will the Republican be Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell or Jefferson Co. Treasurer Mark Paschall? Will the Dem be former State Sen. Ed Perlmutter or former State Rep. Peggy Lamm? Whoever wins on both sides, they will face a tough race heading into November in this competitive district.

Connecticut - August 8 (Lieberman lives!)
Michigan - August 8
Missouri - August 8
Nevada - August 15
Alaska - August 22
Wyoming - August 22

Florida - September 5

Governor - Atty. Gen. Charlie Crist (R) has the edge, but State CFO Tom Gallagher (R) is keeping it close. Rep. Jim Davis (D) should handily win the Dem nomination.

11th Congressional District - This Tampa seat is safe for the Dems, but which Dem will it be?

13th Congressional District - Same here for the Repubs. Who will it be?

Arizona - September 12

Governor - The Republicans include Don Goldwater (yes, related to Barry), Judge Jan Florez, and former State Sen. Don Greene. Whoever it is will lose to Gov. Janet Napolitano (D).

Delaware - September 12

Maryland - September 12

Governor - Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) has the GOP nod wrapped up. But will the Democrat be Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley or Montgomery Co. Executive Doug Duncan?

Senate - Same here. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele will be the Repub, but is the Dem gonna be Rep. Ben Cardin or former Rep. Kweisi Mfume?

Minnesota - September 12
New Hampshire - September 12

New York - September 12

Governor - Is the GOP sacrificial lamb former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld or former Independent candidate Tom Golisano?

Rhode Island - September 12
Vermont - September 12

Wisconsin - September 12

8th Congressional District - The GOP favorite is State Assembly Speaker John Gard, but the Dems have an interesting three-way contest between wealthy doctor Steve Kagen, Brown Co. Executive Nancy Nusbaum, and businessman Jamie Wall.

Massachusetts - September 19 (Reilly will trounce Patrick)
Washington - September 19
Hawaii - September 23

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Tennessee

Any thoughts on which Republican is likely to go up against Ford? Which one would we prefer?

by danielj 2006-01-18 02:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee

the strongest candidate is probably Bryant (who is also the most conservative). He doesn't have the problem of being a moderate in a conservative party (like Corker) or the baggage of previously losing a high-profile race (like Hilleary). He is Ford's toughest potential competition. But since Corker has a huge fundraising advantage over the other two Repubs, maybe he will win the primary.

by Ament Stone of California 2006-01-18 03:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee

I disagree. I think the reason that Corker is the only GOP candidate losing in this poll is because conservatives dont want to admit voting for him. But if given the choice between a Democrat and a moderate Republican, you better believe the neocons are taking the moderate Republican.
On the other hand, I think Ford's best chance is against Hilleary or Bryant. If he draws a conservative opponent, he may be able to pose himself as the moderate and his opponent as an extremist conservative and pick off the same voters that chose Bredesen over Hilleary. IMO, thats the only way we can win.

by AC4508 2006-01-18 04:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee, WTF?

Uh, all of this assumption that Ford is a shoo-in conveniently ignores that his family problems will go unnoticed in the primary.

His Aunt Ophelia, who won election by 13 votes in a special election to fill the state Senate seat of his indicted uncle John, (after winning the primary by a landslide 20 votes) filed a lawsuit to block her ouster due to possible voter fraud, and was granted a TRO tonight.

Outside Shelby County, even the Democrats who LIKE him are worried that the problems of his family would preclude any chance of victory, no matter HOW much $$ he has raised.

ALSO, Howard Dean was in Memphis yesterday, and I was there. He mentioned that we had a contested Senate race between two good Democrats, and Rosalind Kurita's supporters yelled loudly on her behalf; yet few if any spoke out for Ford. And THIS IS IN THE TOWN HE REPRESENTS IN CONGRESS.

Do not be fooled by his $$; if Ford wins the nomination, he will only carry Shelby and Davidson (Nashville) counties, and that's not nearly enough.

Remember, people (especially in the South) will LIE to pollsters so as not to come off as a racist. He is an invitation to a disaster, and a DLC clone.

www.kurita2006.com

by sjs1959 2006-01-18 06:44PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee, WTF?

"Remember, people (especially in the South) will LIE to pollsters so as not to come off as a racist."
_____

I live in Texas (and have lived in 5 other states as well and have never seen any evidence of this -- in fact, I have seen the opposite.

by v2aggie2 2006-01-18 08:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee, WTF?

Wait, what's the opposite?

People lying to pollsters in order not to appear... non-racist? Really?

by HellofaSandwich 2006-01-18 08:45PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee, WTF?

people telling pollsters who they are going to vote for

Being in the South, people wouldn't care if they viewed as racist or non-racist in a poll.

After all, their name isn't being released anyway.

by v2aggie2 2006-01-18 08:58PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee, WTF?

It's called "The Wilder Effect", after Douglas Wilder, who won a very narrow election to be governor of VA after having a strong lead in the polls going into election day. The same thing happened in the 1982 CA governor race between Deukmejian and Bradley.

by CA Pol Junkie 2006-01-19 10:28AM | 0 recs

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All races are all important

Perhaps someone with the werewithall could find a place to gather and keep track of those places like Oregon and North Carolina. Both near and dear to my heart. It is my opinion that dispite the odds, no matter what is projected.... every race is critically important this time and in 2008. A well run lose that lays the groundwork for the "I told you so(s)', may be the "X" factor that decides 2008, and ultimately our fate. Never give up, and never call any race "close", or more interesting then others.

Keep in mind, I totally respect what all or the key players here on MyDD and DailyKos do... but both tend to throw in the towel in an air of knowledge that can become a self-fulfilling prophecy at times. Any race where we can take out the "culture of corruption", deserves the full attention of us all. Be excited, very excited at the upcoming prospects. Support all supporters and listen to all points of view. We all want our country back, from NC to OR! The first key to victory is to visualize, in all of our heads and hearts, what it would be like if we had control of our fates......... so... nothing is not interesting and every race is a victory, or left of close.
It may be a lot to put in any one post, so if someone with equal passion and a good knack of how to gather the facts surrounding these less interesting races.... I would love to see it all, and feel the thrill of winning it all.

by WhyldBill 2006-01-18 03:27PM | 0 recs

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Re: All races are all important

2004, Rob Portman won 72%. 2005, Jean Schmidt won 52%. Hackett made up 20%. That puts a lot of districts in play.

I got a bit of as thrill today seeing that Jerry Lewis, Duke Cunningham's committee chair, finally got an opponent. On paper this is a throwaway but there is a pretty good chance that with everybody plea bargaining and all the investigations going on, it will turn into something.

Some primaries that have drawn a lot of attention here have not made the list. Think of the Ohio Senate battle among Hackett and Brown. New York 19 with a lot of interesting candidates.

Anybody interested in the Republican Governor's primary in PA between ex-Steeler Lynn Swann and William Scranton III?

The Minnesota Senate primary among DFLers between Amy Kobluchar and Patty Wetterling?

Lots of good stuff out there.

by David Kowalski 2006-01-18 08:26PM | 0 recs

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PA gov

The GOP primary is merely a game to see who gets to have their head kicked in by Rendell.

Rendell has undermined any GOP candidate so badly with property tax reform that non takes the GOP seriously.

There are more GOPpers asking Rendell to switch party than there are ones trying to push Swann or Scranton.

Rendell is an ideal candidate: right on all the issues left and right, but not in a way that alienates anyone in the Democratic Party.

by jcjcjc 2006-01-19 02:58AM | 0 recs

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Money+politics = advertising

The central tenet of the post, that the amount of money a politician has for advertising determines how much of a candidate he or she is - could only have been written from the perspective of someone for whom advertising revenue is significant.

The GOP and their K Street pals convinced themselves that , instead of congress being a marketplace of ideas, it was an auction house where legislation,
not unlike - the assumption here about money and congressional seats - are for sale to the highest bidder.

In this case, the author of this post believes that the seats are for sale to the highest fundraiser. In other words, a candy store for advertisers - but no meat, no substance.

How about a rundown on the issues and the level of support the blogosphere has for each?

by turnerbroadcasting 2006-01-18 04:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Money+politics = advertising

but to clarify, having politics as a form of theatre is convenient - people who like the show "runway" are going to love the new line up of pretty designer political ads coming - lets turn it into a show.

(I'm just kidding with you, this is a great post! )

>:)

by turnerbroadcasting 2006-01-18 04:16PM | 0 recs

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Michigan

Excellent overview of the primaries, but I couldn't help noticing that you skipped over Michigan pretty quickly. We've got what could turn into a pretty nasty Senate primary for the GOP, plus (I think) a few fun Congressional races.

For the Senate, there's Rev. Jerry Zandstra, Rev. Keith Butler, and fmr. State Senator/Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard. Butler has a bunch of endorsements, but after some early disappointments, Bouchard jumped in, after insisting before that he wouldn't run (and, to some, suggesting a little bit of racism against African American Keith Butler).

Of course, if things go as they have, none of them will do too well against Senator Stabenow.

And then in the House, there are three to four districts which could become competitive.

Especially exciting to me (simply because I live here) is the 7th district, where incumbent Joe Schwarz, a "moderate" (with a conservative voting record) and 2000 Michigan McCain campaign manager, is being challenged from the right by Tim Walberg, with the support of the Club for Growth. I guess they'll be sinking a lot of money into the race, too, and they've put up a funny little website: http://www.joeschwarzisaliberal.com

It's a conservative district, but I think with the right candidate (who I've heard is announcing in the next couple weeks) we can actually win it. Oh, and don't forget, it was in this district that the Republican Party was founded, in Jackson, MI in 1854. (http://www.gop.com/About/AboutRead.aspx?AboutType=3)

by Fitzy 2006-01-18 04:39PM | 0 recs

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Rhode Island

How about the RI Senate Primary on the Republican side. I firmly believe that Chafee will cave to poltical pressures and vote to confirm Alito. If he goes maverick, however, he might really be in trouble against Laffey in the primary.

by AC4508 2006-01-18 04:48PM | 0 recs

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Re: Rhode Island

That would be interesting if, upon voting yes to to Alito, it takes away his NARAL endorsement and moderate credentials. This would hurt him in the general election. Voting no would hurt him in the primary, but If I were Chafee, the safest bet would be voting no. If we filibuster, it would be great to having Chafee voting no, and it should be up to us and groups like NARAL(however much we despise them) to switch his vote to no.

by KainIIIC 2006-01-18 05:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Michigan

Potential Dem congressional primaries:

The 9th has a couple filed candidates, one rumored to have dropped out - but a couple rumored to be filing soon. May be an interesting selection here.

The 4th has two filed candidates, the 7th and the 11th may end up with a couple as well but all three races will probably not be close. (All follow the same pattern - one favored candidate, one underdog. We'll see if the underdogs file).

Not sure what'll happen in the 10th, two filed candidates there and I have no sense of who has a following.

Just about every other district has a Dem incumbent, or has coalesced around one challenger. Excepting the 3rd, which has no Dem challenger yet.

by lpackard 2006-01-18 07:03PM | 0 recs

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when does FEC numbers come in?

I thought they'd be in by today

by ben114 2006-01-18 05:28PM | 0 recs

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1/31 N/T

by Matt Lockshin 2006-01-18 10:57PM | 0 recs

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CO-07

Well, it won't be Paschall on the Republican side -- he announced today that he is dropping out of the race. I have no idea who will win between Perlmutter and Lamm, but I am sure the Republicans are happy they will avoid a primary. I do know that when the court selected the redistricting plan (which was the second choice plan proposed by the Democrats) people were calling the 7th the "Ed Perlmutter district." But the CW also is that he would have had his best shot in 2002.

by Colorado Luis 2006-01-18 05:39PM | 0 recs

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CA-11

I know I'm following the CA-11 Democratic primary so maybe I'm biased when I think that it's going to be an interesting race. But it looks like former Congressman Pete McCloskey is going to run against Richard Pombo in the Republican primary. And I know for damn sure that that's going to be a fun race to watch. McCloskey, besides being a upstanding guy who will take Pombo to task for his corruption and his extremism also has a way with words. So far my favorite quote from McCloskey: "Congressmen are like diapers, they need to be changed from time to time. And usually for the same reason."

by Matt Lockshin 2006-01-18 11:02PM | 0 recs

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Maryland

Admittedly I am biased toward Mfume, but I have been talking to black friends of mine and most people believe that in a Cardin/Steele race many many Maryland blacks will vote race over party. The question is will the black republican Steele garner enough black democratic votes to win? Nobody knows.

by aiko 2006-01-19 04:04AM | 0 recs

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More important OH Cong. primaries

OH-03-Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer and Dover Law Director Zack Space facing off.

This is a more important primary than OH-13 because OH-13 is a safe Dem seat. OH-03 is our best chance for a pickup-it's currently held by Bob Ney.

OH-02-candidates still announcing, but should be a good one.

by ratdg1 2006-01-19 07:53AM | 0 recs

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NY 3rd

Peter King may well be getting his first ever sitting elected official as opposition. Not just one but maybe two. Term limited Suffolk County legislator David Bishop who in 2000 lost a primary to Steve Israel over Lazio's open seat now resides in the 3rd. Nassau County legislator David Mejias is also strongly interested in a run at Peter King where some DCCC polling seems to indicate vulnerability when Kings voting record is strongly connected to Bush who does not play well in this district!

by politics64 2006-01-19 12:10PM | 0 recs

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Re: NY 3rd

Looks like Bishop will not run, but Mejias seems likely. As a resident of the 3rd & also Nassau's 14th LD (Mejias's LD) I think Mejias has a good chance of knocking off king. It will be BY FAR King's toughest challenege if he does run. Long Island has shown an interest in knocking off Incumbent Republicans (Grucci, Dillon are recent examples). King's close ties to Bush will hurt him, also King's pro-life views in a district while being the most Republican of the 5 districts on LI is still staunchly pro-choice. Part of the reason Kathleen Rice knocked off Dillon was using Dillon's pro-life views against him. If Mejias runs expect abortion to be an issue (especially f it seems like the soon to be confirmed Alito moves the court to the right. If Mejias runs, he will do so with $$$$.

A big reason King has been so succesful is he has had a moderate maverick image. That has gone out the door. He has also ppersonally attacked consituents who have disagreed with hiim on things such as social security (calling them "stupid" among other things. His image has been hit hard & more & more he is being seen as he really is a party line Bush loving conservative. That won't play well in a distric in which Bush made inroads in 04, but all due to 9/11 & it has sharply turned HARD against the adminstrationn. King's position on the Iraq War which has about as much support here as the social security plan won't help.

Next thing King has won with facing no names, with little experience & funding. Mejias will be BY FAR his strongest opponent in these categories.

Its hard to say if Mejias will actually knock King off if he does run.. Butt a Mejias run, this race becomes VERY competitive, and will be BY FAR King's toughest challenge & the race which he is by FAR the most vulnerable he ever has been

by Smash255 2006-01-23 09:20PM | 0 recs

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Re: Maryland

That is one way to look at it. Another is that the MD Dem Party should start supporting African Americans for high level political office. Their record here is abysmal.

by aiko 2006-01-19 12:14PM | 0 recs

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it would help...

if there were term limits for our other two statewide elected offices (Comptroller and Attorney General). Schaefer and Curran have been in those offices for God knows how long, and will continue to be until they die or quit. I would love to see Secretary of State become an elected office (especially after they mandated the Diebold machines statewide), but good luck ever getting that through Annapolis.

Martin O'Malley has chosen Anthony Brown, an African-American state delegate, as his running mate, which is a good start.

by johnny longtorso 2006-01-19 12:22PM | 0 recs

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NY-19

Gaining steam, today John Hall was endorsed by Assemblyman Kevin Cahill and Dutchess Dem Chair Joe Ruggierio.

http://www.johnhallforcongress.com

by epv72 2006-01-19 05:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Maryland

If you don't have political power how do you get it? Vote for people who are like you. It is not a complicated decision.

Even tho I don't support the politics of Condi and Colin you have to admit they are good role models for african american kids. And Steele would be too.

the democratic party has to start practicing what it preaches.

by aiko 2006-01-20 04:25AM | 0 recs