Excellent point. This summer when Hillary forces Obama to make an embarrassing vote on the Senate floor against her wildly-popular and enormously brilliant plan, that's when the chickens come home to roost.
Backroom deals, and voila, suddenly Obama is the nominee.
Florida 2000 all over again.
I do not understand this at all. Granting for a moment that "split decision" is a valid characterization, how does Obama winning the nomination constitute a Florida 2000-style "backroom deal?"
Superdelegates are back-room people, they have been out in public all along, and overwhelmingly breaking for Obama since February.
More importantly, if it is a "split decision" then the very same process that would give Obama the nomination would be required to give Clinton the nomination. If it is illegitimate for Obama to be the nominee after a "split decision" then it is just as illegitimate for Clinton to be the nominee. She would be "stealing" it just as he would be.
Which is to say, in your view, that the 2008 Democratic nomination race was illegitimate. I expect that is a meme we will see multiplying rapidly.
No, I'm saying if she gets the nomination. If I'm a superdelegate knowing that the nominee has to fight on for the next four months, do I want to pick the one with $30 in the bank, or the one $20 million in the hole?
If she wants to keep spending money chasing the nomination, she can knock herself out. I'm just saying that the money situation isn't irrelevant to undecided supers or voters in upcoming primaries.
Money has nothing to do with this? That just can't be true. Whoever gets the nomination will have to survive on money raised for the primary between now and Denver. The gap between Obama's war chest and Clinton's IOU chest is at least $30 million, probably more depending on who you believe.
You are right to the extent that money will not decide the nominee any more. But going forward, it is certainly a big deal.
Be myself? Ooh, bad idea, trust me. Remember that ancient season of The Real World where that asshole Puck always referred to his behavior as fractions of his real self? ("What, I wasn't that bad tonight, I was only point six Puck!") I do that.
But yeah, I love you back is highly cringe-inducing. I dare say that I hate it -- I'm a strong believer in not telling someone you love them unless you mean it.
This is kind of OT, since even if I'm right it doesn't change your point.
It seems to me that when you are trying to compare the difference between the republican vote and democratic vote, you can't just look at 52% and 54% and then say it was only two points more. You also have to consider that the number of votes for Obama goes down by two points. (As with defecting superdelegates, one voter counts as a net of two voters.)
As I said, even if I'm right it doesn't provide the margin of victory, so your point stands. I'm just checking.
P.S. Count me in the camp of people who think that republicans participating in "Operation Chaos" might not be entirely truthful with exit poll workers, and thus the data are suspect and shouldn't be used by anyone to support an argument.
This is absolutely true, and even after she "drops out" of the race it will really be just putting her campaign on hold until the convention. If, before Denver, Obama hits his head while playing basketball and falls into a coma, she will be right there to take the nomination.
However, there is a world of difference between waiting until the convention to release your delegates and actively campaigning throughout the summer to try to flip the superdelegates. The former is expected, but the latter is likely to bring harsh rebukes. One of her own supers, Sen. Feinstein, already fired a shot across Hillary's bow today, hinting that Clinton should not keep tearing down Obama or risk losing her support.
When enough superdelegates endorse Obama to put him over the magic number, Hillary can't keep campaigning against him and hope to keep her friends in the Senate and in the party. If she can't openly fight, she'll have to openly endorse him as the winner. So a flood of endorsements will be significant indeed.