Why Obama Should Support Fully Seating MI/FL
by alvernon, Wed May 28, 2008 at 09:01:22 PM EDT
When the RBC meets on Saturday it looks like they will cut the MI and FL delegations in half (or give them half votes). I believe that this is the worst possible outcome for Barack Obama. Herewith are several reasons why Obama should support Hillary's request to have the delegations seated in full.
1. Obama wins anyway. I won't go over the full math, but looking at the DemConWatch numbers with MI/FL included, you can see that Obama needs 128 delegates under Hillary's preferred scenario. After the three upcoming contests that number will be reduced to about 93, assuming narrow Obama wins in MT and SD and a 30-point blowout for Clinton in PR.
That means Obama will need only 1/3 of the remaining delegate pool, which consists of uncommitted superdelegates, uncommitted MI pledged delegates, and Edwards delegates. That is an easy threshold, and it will be even easier once the rest of the MI delegates are assigned and the Pelosi Club endorses.
2. Clinton and her supporters will shut up about MI and FL. Giving them everything they want is the one and only way to keep these people from continuing to tear down the results of the nominating contest as a rigged result which is morally equivalent to African dictatorships and slavery. Of course she will continue to piss all over the party with her "popular vote" argument, but she will be denied any process arguments, which are more persuasive.
3. It won't hurt the party in the future because this nominating system is dead anyway. There is no doubt at all that the party will change the nominating system before 2016 (2012 if Hillary gets her wish), so setting a bad precedent is not an issue. The system will be fixed so this kind of pigf*ck doesn't happen again.
4. It avoids the embarrassment of moving the goal line after Obama crosses it. With the delegate count set to the maximum, there is no way that Obama can clinch a majority only to have it yanked from underneath him by further power plays among Hillary's cronies in the party. He will be the presumptive nominee, period, and Hillary's only chance will be to convince delegates to switch to her. Fat chance.
5. Did I mention that Hillary and her supporters will shut up about subverted democracy? This is enormously important, because we can't stand an entire summer of a sore loser traveling the country on borrowed money complaining that the nomination is illegitimate. She will poison public opinion against our nominee. With this argument neutralized, all she will have left is pointless whining, which I fully expect she will engage in all the way until the convention but it will be robbed of its power. And hopefully we will never hear from that doofus Lanny Davis again.
Somehow I doubt that the RBC will give Hillary everything she wants. That's too bad, because even if she gets everything she wants she will still lose. No point in letting her cling to one more weapon she can use to slash at our nominee and our chances for victory in the fall.