NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Election 2008: South Carolina Democratic Primary

Barack Obama 33%.....(34%, previous poll)

Hillary Clinton 33%.....(36%)

John Edwards 17%......(13%)

Some Other Candidate 9%

Not Sure 8%

Those figures have changed little since earlier in the month when Clinton had a statistically insignificant 2-point lead. In November, Clinton had a ten-point advantage. In September, the former First Lady was up by thirteen points. Currently, John Edwards is a distant third at 17% in South Carolina, that’s up four points since the previous survey. Joe Biden is at 4% and no other Democrat tops the 2% level of support.

Obama now attracts 50% of the African-American vote in South Carolina while Clinton picks up just 28%. That’s little changed from the previous survey. However, a month ago, the candidates were even in this important constituency. (Obama 46%, Clinton 45%). Among white voters in the state--Clinton now earns 39% of the white vote, Edwards 33%, and Obama 14%.

Survey of 417 Likely Democratic Primary Voters December 16, 2007

this is a rasmussen poll

www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_democratic_primary

Tags: clinton, obama (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Link?

Polling outfit?

Trendline?

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 06:29AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

If you are not going to provide a link, probably better to delete this diary.

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 06:31AM | 0 recs
by General Sherman 2007-12-18 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Please edit diary to include link.

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

"Obama now attracts 50% of the African-American vote in South Carolina while Clinton picks up just 28%."

Expect this number to expand as the barber and beauty shop chatter begins to pick up on Team Clinton's race-baiting.

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 06:36AM | 0 recs
Putting this out

there at to what will be CW by the weekend.  Edwards can win Iowa, and Obama would still have a good shot at winning NH and SC.  Watch the media frames, we will be there by Saturday.  

Still if Clinton wins Iowa it is over.  If Obama wins Iowa it is over.

But, the new frame will be if Edwards wins Iowa it is a toss-up between all-three in NH.

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 06:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Putting this out

Whether "winning" Iowa ends the race will depend on margins of victory. IMHO.

If it is sufficiently close between 1st and 2nd (and even 3rd?) then the outgoing message may well be "tie" and New Hampshire becomes critical.

But if Hillary or Obama win a decisive victory it will spill over into NH and SC and very likely snowball.

by Bill White 2007-12-18 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Political Wire got an advance look at the latest results from a new Diageo/Hotline national poll of registered voters which shows the national race tightening.

For Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton now leads Sen. Barack Obama by just five points, 35 to 30%. For Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads Mike Huckabee by just four points, 21 to 17%.

Check back later for complete results.

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 06:38AM | 0 recs
hmmm

national polls still aren't very importand but it's nice to see.

by nevadadem 2007-12-18 06:40AM | 0 recs
Your Right

It doesn't matter.  However, it will likely be tonight's media frame.  So much for the Good Clinton news cycle.

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 06:42AM | 0 recs
If there is any

doubt Obama is controlling the media conversation check out the number of "Is Obama the 92' Bill Clinton" stories on E-wire...right after he quoted Clinton from 92'

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Your Right

but the media will not talk about her widening her lead from the last gallup poll.

Once again - you rely on the media for a narrative. But if Media says something bad about your candidate, you are up in arms.

by sepulvedaj3 2007-12-18 07:03AM | 0 recs
If anybody

should know how to play the media it is the Clintons.  However, they are failing

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 07:33AM | 0 recs
From FristRead

From NBC's Christina Jamison
At a scheduled "unscheduled" stop this morning at a Hy-Vee grocery store in Des Moines, the former president and Sen. Clinton had an impromptu press conference with former basketball player Magic Johnson. It was very impromptu. After photo ops with the former basketball player and the Clintons, Bill Clinton broke away from the pack to tour a bit more of the grocery store.

Some cameras followed him, and he started answering questions and soon there was a bit of a melee. There was an audible "s--t" from campaign spokesman Jay Carson as he dove in to get his voice recorder into the scrum and quickly stopped the former president from talking with the traditional, "Thank you, everybody."

All of a sudden campaign staff said, "We're having a media avail," put up the rope line and put the senator and Magic Johnson in front of the cameras. Johnson made a brief statement about why he's supporting Clinton and then she took a few questions. She said she feels good about campaigning, feels she has momentum and understands why Iowans want to know more about her.

Being at the grocery store, one gets the impression the media avail wasn't "planned" until the former president started talking. When I asked Jay Carson if it was indeed planned, he said they had planned an avail for later today, but then the senator told him why not do it here with Magic Johnson, so they got it together quickly.

They had real problems getting the press out of the Hy-Vee also because the guests of honor kept meeting, greeting and chatting with shoppers and store employees. Dual press scrums...  It was, in all honesty, a total circus.

by CardBoard 2007-12-18 07:35AM | 0 recs
Re: hmmm

The argument of national polls being important, was that they showed that, while Clinton was dropping, Obama wasn't picking up at all.  If this national poll 5% difference keeps up, then that situation has completely changed.

by SixthElement 2007-12-18 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 539 registered voters in Iowa (conducted 12/13 through 12/15) finds:

General Election Match-ups for President:

McCain 46%, Clinton 45%
Clinton 46%, Huckabee 45%
Clinton 48%, Romney 45%
Clinton 47%, Giuliani 42%

Obama 51%, Romney 39%
Obama 51%, McCain 39%
Obama 52%, Huckabee 39%
Obama 55%, Giuliani 36%

So much for the electability argument by Clinton's campaign.

by BDM 2007-12-18 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

Wow, Obama is over 50% in each of his matchups, while every opponent stays under 40%.  That's pretty impressive.  

by SixthElement 2007-12-18 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup/USA Matchup's GE

In hypothetical matchups for the general presidential election, Clinton and Obama each led Giuliani, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Romney, although at times narrowly.

Obama was somewhat stronger, besting Giuliani by 6 points, Huckabee by 11 and Romney by 18. Clinton had an edge of 1 point over Giuliani, 9 points over Huckabee and 6 points over Romney.

OBAMA IS STRONGER NATIONALLY.

by BDM 2007-12-18 07:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

All of this is before the GOP does their work.

by Ga6thDem 2007-12-18 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

But it is after the Clinton's did their little hit job.  Character defamation.  

by SixthElement 2007-12-18 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

And before we do our work . . .

by Bill White 2007-12-18 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Survey/USA GE Matchup's IA

This is in a state where the people know the candidates by far the best (Romney, Huckabee, Obama, Edwards). I just wish they would also poll Edwards so he could blow the other 2 out of the water ;)

by KainIIIC 2007-12-18 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Yes! Not only did Edwards move up, but Obama and Hillary droped! He turned a previous 23% deficit to just 16 points to each of them now. It's becoming much more clear that a win in Iowa could lead to victories in NH, SC, and Nev.

by Progressive America 2007-12-18 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Problem is, JE probably won't win in NH, even with a win on Iowa. So there would be a break in his momentum, probably broken by Hillary, who you then probably go on to win in SC.

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Thing is, Obama would still want Edwards to be viable in SC to continue to draw white voters away from HRC.

Then again, I don't know if JE's voters in SC will be swayed more by racial affinity or dislike of HRC. Maybe they just stay home.

Fact is, Obama still needs to build up is AA support.

by General Sherman 2007-12-18 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

From my experience here in SC, a decent of amount of Edwards' support prefers Obama as a second choice. I don't know how much of his support would go to Obama v. Hillary v. stay home, but it certainly wouldn't all go to Hillary. There is a significant white anti-Clinton vote in SC that could easily break for Obama. I think Edwards will stay in until SC, though, no matter what.

by DPW 2007-12-18 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

I'm not so sure of that. Edwards has been rising in NH as of late. Just a month or two ago he was at around 10%. Then he moved up to around 14-15% consistently. Now he's performing at 17-19%. I expect those numbers to continue to move up and if he wins Iowa I think he could win the state.

by Progressive America 2007-12-18 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

If Edwards wins Iowa, the anti-Clinton vote goes almost entirely to him. Obama's high numbers right now are in large part because he is percieved as the main anti-Clinton. If Edwards scores 1st, that changes, and Edwards WILL be able to get a good 10-15% from the anti-Clinton vote, undecideds and support leached from Clinton in order to win.

by KainIIIC 2007-12-18 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Edwards supporters will probably mostly go to Hillary.

by Ga6thDem 2007-12-18 07:19AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

I'll tell you what, this Edwards supporter will not go to Hillary.

by minvis 2007-12-18 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

This poll doesn't surprise me. I've always thought that SC was very close. Didn't Jesse Jackson win SC in 1988?

by Ga6thDem 2007-12-18 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

writers had to pick now to go on strike. how did hillary get so lucky.

by jello 2007-12-18 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW S.C. Poll: Obama 33%, Hillary 33%

Unless she wins both Iowa and New Hampshire by a large margin-which I don't think she will, I fully expect her to lose SC and I'm fine with that.

by reasonwarrior 2007-12-18 12:22PM | 0 recs

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