You know how some Congressman in serious trouble with the law pretend they'll run for re-election just so that they can collect more money to pay their legal bills? Well, I thing Hillary is doing a close cousin of that strategy:  Staying in the raise in order to get more money to pay her campaign debts to Penn et al.  I doubt she'll spend much money in the upcoming states.

 I doubt she'll spend much money in the upcoming states. I believe the main reason she staying in is not because she believes she has a good chance at the nomination, but because she sees it as the best way to get more money to pay her campaign debts.

If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the remaining pledge delegates in order to get the nomination, than she has won it.  But if she comes out of Penn. needing a greater percentage of the remaining pledge delegates in order to win the nomination, than she has lost it.

What's the  fulcrum point?

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

Per the New York Times, ..
"His polling firm, Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign, the statement said."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/us/pol itics/06cnd-penn.html?hp

and, ..

"After the events of the last few days, Mark Penn has asked to give up his role as Chief Strategist of the Clinton Campaign; Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign. Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson will coordinate the campaign's strategic message team going forward."

He's not completely out. Per the New York Times, ..

"His polling firm, Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign, the statement said."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/us/pol itics/06cnd-penn.html?hp

The Obama campaign could not have picked a better  (from its perspective) person to run Clinton's campaing

I suppose this is what was going through Penn's mind, "Hillary has lost, it is now time to refocus on my day job"

I suppose this is what was going through Penn's mind, "Hillary has lost, it is now time to focus on my day job"

Obama vastly outspending her in all the contest held since Feb. 5 suggests, as well as Texas and Ohio, suggests a big chunk of that is not primary money, but money she her presidential campaign will never get the chance to actually spend..

Or, as Todd Beeton would say: "Hillary Clinton Holding Steady in Texas" too!  In fact, her Texas poll numbers here are holding even more steady than those in Ohio..

Todd Beeton's fair and balance title: "Hillary Clinton Holding Steady in Ohio"

the link to the actual Quinniac poll, which to his credit he provides: "February 25, 2008 - Obama Gains On Clinton In Ohio Dem Primary Quinnipiac University Likely Voter Poll Finds; College-Educated Voters In Big Shift To Obama"

Quinnipac own analysis of their poll:

Buoyed by a big shift among college-educated voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is gaining on New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads 51 - 40 percent among Ohio likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 55 - 34 percent Clinton lead in a February 14 likely voter poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. College-educated voters back Sen. Obama 58 - 33 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Clinton lead with these voters February 14.

On the eve of the only televised debate between the two Democratic contenders in Ohio and just one week before the crucial March 4 primary, Sen. Clinton's large margins among women, 53 - 36 percent; older voters, whites and those without a college education keep her out front.

"Sen. Clinton's lead remains substantial, but the trend line should be worrisome for her in a state that even her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has said she must win," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "A week is an awful long time in politics to be playing defense, but one thing going in her favor is that she is viewed more favorably than is he by Ohio likely Democratic primary voters.

"Sen. Obama, to no one's surprise given his momentum nationally, has made inroads, especially among some of Sen. Clinton's softer supporters," said Brown. "If she is to stop his momentum in Ohio, she must retain her margins among her core backers - women, older voters and those lower on the social-economic and education scale."

"For instance, while she held leads of four points and 27 points among likely primary voters below and over age 45 respectively earlier this month, now she trails by 52 - 42 percent among the younger group and her margin has shrunk to 55 - 35 percent among older voters," said Brown.

The reason is simple - they finally decided to get on the Obama-mentum (Obamentum?) train.