Hillary' fading? (In which I go cherrypicking the polls)
by AdamSmithsHand, Fri Aug 17, 2007 at 08:54:55 AM EDT
We love our polls around here, don't we?
Dropped by Rasmussen today and noted a few polls that showed some chinks in the Clinton armor. Given that we have a few diligent posters here always ready to share the inevitability - I thought I'd take it upon myself to share some of the numbers not as likely to be reported.
Here we go:
Nationally: Giuliani Now Tops Clinton by Seven Points
"After being virtually tied with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton for several months, Republican contender Rudy Giuliani now leads Clinton up 47% to 40% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey."
Oregon: Clinton Struggles in Blue State Against Republican Hopefuls
"Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. However, even during that stretch, no Democrat has even earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less.
If New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in Election 2008, it may take some work to keep Oregon in the Democratic column--52% of the state's voters currently have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic frontrunner."
Favorables: Lowest level all year.
"Clinton is now viewed favorably by 73% of Democrats, Edwards by 69% and Obama by 67%. Overall, among all voters, Clinton's favorables fell this week to 45%. That's the lowest level recorded all year."
Of course these polls are only part of the story. Clinton had good news in Arkansas and Michigan where she is polling extremely well in a general election. Her lead in New Hampshire is also growing. Even in the numbers I presented - Giuliani's lead is likely an outlier. But pretend you didn't hear that. This diary is about cherrypicking the bad news. I do this in a vain attempt to fit in around here. Hope it works.
The truth of the matter is that Clinton is doing fine. The nomination is still hers to lose. But her inevitability is overstated, and there is reason to ask whether she has peaked.
There is still almost 5 months to go. Don't let the polls fool you - even these. Fight for your candidate - even if she/he is already inevitable!