Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: withdraw

November 08 is not a caucus. Everyone can vote. Those who can't get to a polling place can vote absentee. Obama's red states will go red, his "Dems for a Day" will go back to their real preferences. Even if some of them were sincere, Inds and GOP won't like the Wright tapes they will be hearing for months on their car radios.

Not everyone in the DNC or the SDs has drunk the koolaid, and even some who are rigging things now for Obama (Pelosi etc) may still have a little survival instinct about November and pull back to sanity eventually.

Soon it's going to become obvious to the insiders (including Obama) that Obama CAN'T BEAT MCCAIN. Then there may be some little core of SDs and DNC palace intriguers who would for some reason rather lose in Nov than switch to Hillary, but I can't imagine that being very many. (How many netkooks and Nader types are actually Superdelegates?) Remember, the official SD vote doesn't happen till August.

Dems who lose in November tend to be DESTROYED: McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry.... (The exception is Gore, who WON in Nov 2000.) How many bigwigs will really want to go down with Obama, when they realize he's really sinking?

Obama losing to GOP in November 08 means Obama destroyed. Obama gracefully withdrawing now means Obama in a very good position for next time (and hopefully Wright forgotten, happy in a closet full of blue dresses). Whatever he says in public, I hope Obama is smart enough to realize that, eventually, and withdraw before it's too late.

Tags: Dem losers, mccain, McGovern, obama, Pelosi, SDS (all tags)

Comments

67 Comments

Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

So you are asking the leader in states, popular vote, delegates to withdraw?

LOL.

by mefck 2008-03-28 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

as an ardent HRC supporter - i agree with diary - but ENOUGH WITH THE WITHDRAW TALK - on both sides.  the race is close and far from over - stop please.

by canadian gal 2008-03-28 12:10PM | 0 recs
For party, continue; for BO, drop out now.

I agree with you (and Bill Clinton) that no one should be pressured to drop out this soon. Better for the longterm good of the party (and the eventual nominee) that the process play itself out through June, and if necessary to the convention. It's more transparent that way.

It is Obama's future that will be better served by dropping out (or going on hold) sooner. If he does, then Wright and Rezko are no longer relevant and won't be drummed continually; by 2016 they may be forgotten. Obama will have time to find a better staff to do a better job of vetting him, distance himself sooner rather than later from whatever other nuts and jailbirds he's supporting, learn better damage control. He might even use the time to get some real experience, by  becoming governor of some little red state and uniting it.

The longer he stays in this race, the more the GOP will dig out on his past; if Obama gets out of the spotlight, the GOP and Fox will go after Hillary instead. The more gaffes he will make. The more he will have to act like Bush2000, blocking vote counts/revotes.

Everything is trending down for him for the rest of this campaign. If people SEE him lose in votes and polls, that will be more transparent and better for Hillary and the party -- but worse for him.

I don't think Obama ever expected to get this far. I don't think he had a Plan A-.

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: For party, continue; for BO, drop out now.

So you know there's something nefarious in Obama's past?

How will this be rectified by Obama dropping out now?

Also, what's it say about HRC that she's getting beat by an inexperienced junior Senator (who is Black!) who never intended to win the nomination?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-03-28 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: For party, continue; for BO, drop out now.

Let's keep this in perspective. While its true that Obama has won more states, is ahead in popular vote and delegates, if you look closer at the circumstances of this slight advantage the facts suggest severe problems for Obama's candidacy. And that's what has many of the SD's concerned. Winning in mostly caucus states, which is the majority of Obama's victories, is not an indicator of strength.  Caucuses in many ways are an artificial measure of support,  reflective of which campaign is more adept at getting their supporters to caucus sites as opposed to being a barometer of broader voter sentiment -- George McGovern's campaign is a good example of a campaign that built its victory on this type of caucus strategy, similar to what the Obama Campaign is doing.  In addition, Obama has yet been able to put together the broader coalition of support that is crucial to success in the GE, which is surprising at this stage of his candidacy. If we're to believe the media's overheated rhetoric, Obama has the momentum. Momentum usually suggests additional voters and additional voting blocs starting to move into your column. That's not the case. So, if your point is that the Obama campaign is very skilled in the machinations of caucus states, your probably right. But clearly it is Hillary's message that is resonating among voters in all of the states that the Democrats need to win in November, which is why she's besting Obama among the lunch-bucket Democratis that are essential to success in November.  

by Sabrina Duncan 2008-03-29 07:49AM | 0 recs
Heh.

Everything is trending down for him for the rest of this campaign.

Actually, over here on planet Earth, Gallup today records an Obama surge: Obama 50, Clinton 42.

I know, I'm sorry. I shouldn't have interrupted your exercise in magical thinking with irrelevant facts.

by MBNYC 2008-03-28 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Dem1950 is one of those folks I cited

Oh Dem1950, you finally came over here to MyDD from Hillaryis44.  SHAME ON YOU RACIST!!!

by kristannab 2008-03-28 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Dem1950 is one of those folks I cited

Heh, I like to hang out at Big Pink myself and I've never heard anything racist.

by Benjamin3 2008-03-28 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Dem1950 is one of those folks I cited

I'm not a racist but..

Classic line for those racists that don't think they are racists.

by kristannab 2008-03-28 01:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Even though he's leading by every count (states won, popular votes, head to head wit McCain, etc), he should quit because if he looses in November he's dead?

Rriiiiigghhhhh...

by poserM 2008-03-28 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

He is projected to lose every metric but states won if you count Michigan and Florida as voted.

Obama has very close to 0 votes in Michigan...

Unless Obama gets delegates from 0 votes from michigan or gets it to not count he loses pledged delegates.

Its over you side just hasn't realized it yet.

by DTaylor 2008-03-28 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

You should Read Jerome's post of the main page. Ever counting MI and FL Obama is ahead in pledged delegates.


Including MI & FL, Clinton is only behind in pledged-delegates by 46-56 delegates

by poserM 2008-03-28 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

hahahahhahahaha

You really think Michigan's results should count?

Even better, you think that they should count as they stand?

Even though nobody else was on the ballot? That's not how we do things in America.

by Darknesse 2008-03-28 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit
"If you count FL and MI as voted" Who plans to do that? MI and FL were threeway races, remember? MI had only one name on the ballot, remember?
by Sam Wise Gingy 2008-03-28 12:19PM | 0 recs
Obama & Edwards took their own names off MI

Obama & Edwards took their own names off MI.

One of the purposes of the SDs is to look at the whole picture and recognize gaming tactics like his.

"Take me off!"
Okay.
"I wasn't on the ballot!"
Okay, here's a revote.
"No revote! My GOP crossovers couldn't come!"

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 01:14PM | 0 recs
Eh.

Obama has very close to 0 votes in Michigan...

Yeah, well, he

wasn't

on

the

ballot

because he followed DNC rules and Clinton did not. It's easy to wind up with zero votes that way, I agree; it doesn't make that a valid election, however.

by MBNYC 2008-03-28 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

I mean, hurry up and withdraw before it's too late and you win!!!

by mefck 2008-03-28 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

you know what Hillary needs some way to show he is unelectable!

I mean open primaries where GOP and Independents can vote, hurt her,
the polls are against her right now
EVERY single way of measuring this is against her

if only there was a way to measure the race that SHOWS that Hillary is actually winning this and the ENTIRE country except for Hillary and her supporters have it wrong.

by TruthMatters 2008-03-28 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Every single way except Democratic voters, and a few polls (which I tend to ignore anyway).  Let's count MI and FL so Obama's inevitable nomination can be viewed as legitimate.  Hell, I might even support him if he would allow the votes to count.  And by votes, I'm meaning ALL of the popular votes as well.  And let's let these remaining states votes and then look at the numbers, and then look at issues about electability.

by Benjamin3 2008-03-28 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

I'm waiting for this to get recc'd to the top of the list. lol

So far, only one recommendation: DemAC

I'm disappointed . . . but have hope

by poserM 2008-03-28 11:56AM | 0 recs
If you've got hope, I've got change :-) n/t

by DemAC 2008-03-28 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best

You are kind of kooky, but because you are a democrat we love ya anyway.

by Spanky 2008-03-28 11:56AM | 0 recs
You're crisp and clear as always

It's really hard to actually believe that so many major Democratic movers and shakers will go all lemmings and jump off the cliff with Obama.

by DemAC 2008-03-28 11:57AM | 0 recs
Why are we lemmings?

Because we are part of the majority that disagrees with your chosen candidate?

Because the numbers add up that he is a stronger candidate by any reckoning, especially considering that HRC PUTS CALIFORNIA IN PLAY.

Relax, kick back and lets get ready to rally behind Obama in the fall okay friend?

by Darknesse 2008-03-28 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Why are we lemmings?

Hillary is ahead on democratic party majority

Hillary is projected to be ahead on total popular vote

Hillary is ahead on pledged delegates

IF we count every state who votes in 2008 not just the ones Obama and Dean like.

by DTaylor 2008-03-28 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Why are we lemmings?

She isn't projected to be ahead in the popular vote.

Last I checked, Independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in the fall, so it's probably a good thing to find out who they have less objection to.

Hillary is NOT ahead on pledged delegates. She never has been.

And you know whose fault this all is? HILLARY's.

If she wanted Independents and Republicans to not vote in the primaries, she should have raised objections at the beginning.

If she wanted Florida and Michigan to count, she should have tried to make them count FROM THE BEGINNING.

If she thought that Delegates shouldn't matter and  that it should be all about the Popular Vote, she COULD have said something at the beginning.

But she didn't. So she lost.

Sorry about that, but we need to move forward.

by Darknesse 2008-03-28 12:08PM | 0 recs
"We"? Are you a Super Delegate? n/t

by DemAC 2008-03-28 12:07PM | 0 recs
Hard to bellieve, but not impossible to

believe.  

1.  Democrats are so caught up in being "holier than thou" that, yes, I can clearly see them going over the falls in a barrel by sticking to their "principles", rather than doing what it takes to win.  

2.  Left-leaning democrats are far touchier about racism than about sexism, so if it comes down to throwing someone under a bus, it's going to be the woman.
 

by mnicholson0220 2008-03-28 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Hard to bellieve, but not impossible to

What is the evidence Obama supporters are motivated by sexism?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-03-28 12:52PM | 0 recs
Do you have all day? I don't, but

you can do a google search on "Hillary Clinton" "sexism", "George McGovern", "Media in the public interest", and learn all about it.

by mnicholson0220 2008-03-28 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Do you have all day? I don't, but

Why is it that HRC supporters can't even summarize an argument?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-03-28 01:50PM | 0 recs
or provide proper links?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-03-28 01:51PM | 0 recs
When the lemmings smell the coffee

There's an information time-lag (as well as the usual stages beginning with Denial).

The MSM talking leg-thrillers may still be in Denial stage about the Wright tapes. They're telling each other, Oh, he made a speech and now none of US are remembering Wright, so Wright's all gone.... And some SDs and bigwigs who listen only to MSM are putting their heads together under the sand to enable continuing the koolaid party.

The blue-collar Dem base who has better things to do with their Sunday mornings than listen to talking heads -- like going to their OWN churches -- hasn't heard the Wright tapes yet, except those who watch Fox. But Fox will keep the tapes out there circulating, and local papers and preachers are talking about them, and the soccer moms listen to their car radios, and the urls are circulating in email....

Wright is percolating through the slower channels, that don't watch MSM pundits. Coffee is brewing. Eventually the smell will reach to the levels of SDs who do listen to their constituents, and eventually up to the DNC.

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 01:31PM | 0 recs
what the?

I guess that being ahead means Obama is losing and that his better poll numbers against McCain means that he will lose in November, while Hillary can somehow overcome a bigger hole?

I guess that beating HRC in EVERYTHING and being BETTER THAN SHE IS AGAINST MCCAIN means that he is doomed.

Is this the new narrative? Or is it "Clinton can't win, so let her take her last shot, while Obama goes to the back of the line"?

Gonna have to do better than that...

by Darknesse 2008-03-28 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: what the?

If you count all the votes even the ones you don't like he is LOSING in every metric except # of states won which isn't a legit metric.

Popular vote
Popular vote among democrats
Pledged delegates
Delegates

are the only legit measures.

by DTaylor 2008-03-28 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: what the?

Care to show your workings?

by interestedbystander 2008-03-28 12:14PM | 0 recs
What color is the sky in your world?

Obama has never trailed in the pledged delegate count.

Obama currently leads in total delegates. He has added to this lead by closing the Super Delegate gap consistently since Super Tuesday.

Obama currently has an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote. He is going to pad these with a close loss in PA coupled with another Wisconsin-like blowout in North Carolina.

by johnnyappleseed 2008-03-28 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: What color is the sky in your world?

Hillary is currently up 700,000 votes among registered dems

Hillary is currnetly down like 200-400,000 and will pick most of that up in PA in the popular vote when you include GOP and Indys

Hillary won Florida and Michigan.  Obama got less than 1% of the vote in Michigan and would get 0 delegates if its counted.  Together its a ~165 pledged delegate add to clinton vs obama.

Game Set Match

by DTaylor 2008-03-28 02:35PM | 0 recs
MI exit polls

Well, we could credit Obama with about 1/4 of the vote in MI per exit polls that asked people how they would have voted if all names had been on the ballot. Iirc that came out about the same percent as the delegate votes: Hillary got more than Obama and Edwards put together, O/E about equal to each other.

Funny that Obama doesn't want a revote. Now he might get most of Edwards' votes too. Isn't he blocking a revote because it would exclude those who voted in the GOP MI primary? Thus leaving out lots of his GOP "Dem for a Day" voters -- and those KOS Dems who were busy voting in the GOP primary for Romney.

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 03:08PM | 0 recs
Hillary does better against McCain

than Obama does in all the pivotal states that Dems have to carry to win:  OH, PA, and FL.

by mnicholson0220 2008-03-28 12:45PM | 0 recs
Obama won't withdraw

Obama can afford to lose in November. He is young, he has assembled a huge fundraising list, and he can easily mount another campaign in 2012. He could care less about the party or advancing progressive values. Win or lose running as the Democratic nominee is great for his career, and he can always blame a loss on America's racism.

by souvarine 2008-03-28 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama won't withdraw

Obama won't get a 2nd chance.

He doesn't get 80% AA support in round 2
He doesn't get Hillary with built in negatives in round 2

Its over for him unless he wins something this cycle.

by DTaylor 2008-03-28 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama won't withdraw

uprating, but man, that's borderline.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-03-28 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama won't withdraw

I thought that really crossed the border.

by mefck 2008-03-28 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama won't withdraw

Tell that to Donna Brazile, who blamed Obama's New Hampshire loss on the Bradley effect. A Bradley effect, among Democrats.

by souvarine 2008-03-28 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama won't withdraw

Okay, I will call Donna Brazille and tell her that I uprated you.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-03-28 12:45PM | 0 recs
Seat ALL MI/FL delegates as Uncommitted

When you talk to Brazile, tell her a good plan I heard elsewhere: send in ALL Michigan AND Florida as "Uncommitted." Strip pledges not delegates.

Cheap, easy, and traditional.

There's a level playing field: both Obama and Hillary can then woo those delegates.

Obama should like that -- his camp campaigned for the "Uncommitted" slate in Michigan.

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Seat ALL MI/FL delegates as Uncommitted

That's kind of an interesting idea, and one I hadn't heard before.

I'm picking Donna up at 7 for our date tonight, so I'll talk to her about it over dinner.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-03-28 01:09PM | 0 recs
Totally plausible. This is a man who

went back on his promise in 2004 NOT to run in 2008 because he knew he lacked the necessary experience.  This is a man who sent henchmen out to contest every signature on the filing of an elderly lady, Alice Palmer, who had been his MENTOR.  She had wanted to run for U.S. Senate/Congress but when that looked impossible, she decided to run again for Illinois Senate.  By that time Obama had HIS name on the ballot and he did everything humanly possible to prevent her from running.  His henchmen successfully got her name removed from the ballot.   Talk about someone who'll do anything to win?  And this one seems to specialize in going after older women (grandmothers and what not).   He's a creep.  

by mnicholson0220 2008-03-28 12:44PM | 0 recs
Hillary is no Alice Palmer

There's a lot of parallel between the Palmer race and the race with Hillary. A popular elder woman in a good position -- he tries to knock her out of her position (and knee-cap her) so he can grab a lucky chance, instead of working his way up with the help she offered.

Palmer had a safe seat; by accepting her help and that of her supporters, he could have got ANOTHER seat, making TWO seats for his faction. Instead he chose to knock her out of politics, replace her with himself, inexperienced and with enemies. (And then quickly abandoned that seat, trying to run for higher office himself, and failing against Rush.)

In this contest, the Dems could have got 16 years in the White House by running HIllary this time and Obama in 2016. Now because of Obama's bad judgement, we may get none.

Also, he 'won' against Palmer by avoiding a fair vote by back-room rules-gaming: he knocked all his opponents off the ballot. In this race also he has been avoiding fair votes: knocking out FL/MI revotes, going for caucus states, using intimidation in caucuses and in follow-ups. And now trying to stop the long contest among voters before it gets to the remaining states.

One advantage Obama has this year but might not in future, is the DNC/FL/MI mess. But since Brazile didn't support the FL Dem party against the FL GOP legislature's mischief of setting the conflicting primary date, that may encourage similar mischief by other GOP legislatures in future.

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 01:08PM | 0 recs
Good points. I think it's very clear

the objective observer -- and will be born out when the history is written -- that Obama is a disaster.   A selfish man accustomed to taking short-cuts on the backs of others.  But the Dem insiders are caught up now in what appear to be their own longstanding enmities and, taking sides like crazy.   It would be bad enough if it were just the campaign and their supporters, but now it's the insiders taking side.  What a mess.  Heil McCain.  

by mnicholson0220 2008-03-28 03:18PM | 0 recs
no sane insiders?

Don't you think at least some of the insiders will eventually settle for winning in Nov, rather than going over the cliff with Obama? As new scandals come out, as the Wright tapes spread, as more primary states vote....

by 1950democrat 2008-03-28 08:12PM | 0 recs
'Obama must implode! Obama must implode!'

"Please, dear Lord, make Obama implode!!"

I cannot stop laughing here today...

by Bob Johnson 2008-03-28 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: 'Obama must implode! Obama must implode!'

I know.

Even funnier is how people want to twist reality and change the rules to make her win somehow.

It's very... N.W.O. of them...

by Darknesse 2008-03-28 12:10PM | 0 recs
Some day, a scholar will scroll through

these postings somewhat in the manner of a biohistorian searching for the telltale signs of an outbreak of ergot fungus poisoning.  

by ReillyDiefenbach 2008-03-28 06:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Thanks for a HILLarious diary!

by animated 2008-03-28 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

All indicators are still that Obama outperforms Hillary in November, and polls have always shown that to be the case.

by mattw 2008-03-28 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

The polls I would trust at this point are the most recent SUSA state-by-state polls, and they show Hillary outperforming Obama against McCain almost everywhere, as well as Hillary beating McCain in Ohio and Obama losing.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=32265e32-9fce-4c9e-83e1-509847 379601

by Benjamin3 2008-03-28 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Here's a thorough analysis which weights polls based on their pollster's historic accuracy and their age, etc:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Right now, it's not pretty. A month ago, Obama was +50 electoral and Clinton was only like -10 from a win, and it's gone downhill.

by mattw 2008-03-28 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take

I guess he'll that new democratic majority without my vote, and--as a would-be former democrat.

by Check077 2008-03-28 12:50PM | 0 recs
BYE THEN

by kristannab 2008-03-28 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: BYE THEN

Yeah, honestly, that's how I feel at this point. I'm tired of Clinton/Obama supporters acting like we're supposed to beg them to vote Democratic if the other candidate gets the nomination.

See ya!

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-03-28 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: BYE THEN

Don't complain when McCain tries to bring back the draft then.

by kristannab 2008-03-28 02:14PM | 0 recs
I can't even respond to this diary.

Thank you diarist. I've been reading all the heartfelt denial of Hillary's position on this site for a while now and frankly it's really depressing to see so many people in this state, but your diary, yours just made me laugh, long and hard. Thank you so much.

by Travis Stark 2008-03-28 12:59PM | 0 recs
This is 1950s thinking. Its 2008. Yes we can win.

by LibDem 2008-03-28 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Why do you ask Obama to drop out?  Obama will be Wright on day, you know.

by JoeySky18 2008-03-28 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Eventually, Obama will take his best shot: wit

Wriiiiiiight!

by 1950democrat 2008-03-31 02:58PM | 0 recs

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