The Race Goes On for Bernie and Ted
Bernie and Ted refuse to turn over. Kasich is an afterthought, at least for now. Clinton's inevitability remains, but not so much for Trump.
Bernie Sanders has won six of the seven contests since 3/15 and gained 81 delegates on Clinton. But, to put that in perspective, Clinton gained 102 delegates over Sanders on 3/15. He's closing the gap, but its still a big hole of over 200 pledged delegates, 1253-1025. Next up, a Wisconsin primary and a Wyoming caucus. Sanders will narrow the gap further. To just 200 delegates? Possibly. Then the huge contest in New York, on April 19th, with 291 delegates at stake. That's a really big deal. Clinton has to be expected to win New York. I'll venture that if Sanders comes out of New York down just 200 delegates, he's barely still got gas. There are few few caucuses going forward, which helps Clinton. But California is huge and might eventually favor Sanders, but for now leans to Clinton.
Ted Cruz is also a winner of the caucus system. He swept the Utah caucus, and the ND caucus has all the makings of an Anti-Trump selection. Cruz is also likley to gain about 40 delegates overall on Trump in Wisconsin. The GOP is getting behind Cruz, and it's beginning to show up in the polls. A recent CA poll shows the trend-- Cruz and Trump now tied in a state that Trump must win in order to gain a majority of delegates prior to the July convention. Overall, Trump is still in a commanding position, leading Cruz by over 280 delegates, with 47% of the pledged delegates. If Trump goes over 50% of the delegates with New York, he starts to look inevitable.
It still looks like a Trump vs Clinton contest. Gary Johnson polls over 10% as the Libertarian candidate, and we are sure to get a Christian Constitutionalist candidate if Trump is the GOP nominee. It's doubtful any other 3rd party candidate emerges on the right. On the left, the longer Sanders goes on, the more likely is is that the Green Party gets a rise from an anti-Clinton defection.