The October Surprise
This is shaping up to not turn out as expected. Well, the second part, anyway. Clinton is ahead of Trump and will win a one-on-one. I don't care what the polls say otherwise, Clinton wins that matchup everytime at the state level. The primaries have ended with the frontrunner securing the nomination (not technically, yet).
But who thought that the GOP race would be over before the Democratic one? And Sanders is just pulling tighter. The Morning Consult national poll is at 48-42. Sanders is very close, but has not been able to knot it up. We'll see what June 7th brings. At some point, the flag gets waved or the troops move onto a new fight. The chances of Sanders going Independent seem slim, but what about a Sanders-Stein Green ticket come August? That seems within the realm of happening, with at least a slim shot.
Johnson's choosing of Weld was a great move. Without another entry of a 3rd party ticket, they may be the October surprise. They would need to get to at least 30% nationally for them to win a few states though, and that seems a high hurdle.
And where are the pro-life conservative voters going to go? That's where I think Ben Sasse comes in to run. You see, he doesn't need to win, but only finish in the top three. And I think a plurality, or perhaps a majority, of the states back Sasse in the House.
The amount of disdain for Trump and Clinton is palatable. All a viable candidate needs is to keep either of them from a majority of the EV's and it would go to the House for a vote.
If it goes to House, each state delegation casts one vote for one of the top three EV contenders to determine a winner. All Sasse and, say Romney, need to do is win one state, be it Utah or Nebraska, and they are in 3rd. That doesn't even take 30% nationally.
Come January 2017, the Republicans will likely still have the majority of state delegates in the House, and they will block vote behind a sitting member above all others. And second, they would rather have a Republican, be it Johnson/Weld or Sasse/Romney, than Clinton, or, for that matter, Sanders/Stein.
Clinton, all of a sudden, looks very weak in this projected outlook. Maybe she lucks out still with an EV majority. Perhaps. I like the idea of Sasse running, if only to make sure Trump does not become President.
I really like the idea of five viable tickets running for the President. Like most Americans, I don't even know who I'd vote for in that scenario. If this unlikely scenario happens, it may just wind up influencing the state delegate composition as well.
Maybe it winds up with none of the candidates being able to reach 26 state votes. Then it would go to the Senate, where a majority would choose among the top two tickets VP choices, for President. Far-reached, for sure, but the potential endgame if things start to go on tilt in October.