Measuring Size of Obama's (Relative) Coattails on Congressional Races

This is a long diary to read so I will tell you upfront what my conclusion is after examining the recent SurveyUSA 50-state polling:  Yes, Barack Obama may indeed have huge coattails for Senate and Congressional races in the fall.  Now, to the long explanation --

The recent SurveyUSA polling indicated a relatively even match between Obama and Clinton re. who would have the most electoral votes when facing McCain.  Obama's total came to 280 EV, while Hillary's was 276 EV - a seemingly even match:

http://www.surveyusa.com/ECV_50-State_re sults_030608_vs_Obama.html
http://www.surveyusa.com/ECV_50-State_re sults_030608_vs_Clinton.html

There's more...

SurveyUsa had a good night last night.

Overall they got 5 of the big 6 right, and had a margin error of only 4.88 in the 9 states they polled at the end

http://craigfarmer.blogspot.com/2008/02/ surveusa-gets-5-of-big-6-right.html

Hillary won all of the important contests of:
California, New Jersey, Mass.

She came close in Missouri and Conn.

This after an unprecedented onslaught by the msm that continues today.

Look at the states the MSM is including in obama's total:
utah
north dakota
kansas
idaho
alaska
minnesota
colorado

All of the above are as meaningless as florida and michigan were.  Except, at the end of the day, the fl. and mich. delegates will count.

Also, not 1 person before the race- up until yesterday focused on or cared about these states.  I know their delegates count, but at some point you have to stop spinning:

missouri, conn., delaware, new mexico are all good wins

But with all of the Kennedy noise, Oprah bounce, and the media coverage:

Mass. California, New Jersey, and Missouri were the big ones, and Hillary wins 3 - 1.

There's more...

Survey USA poll released this morning has the following numbers:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.a spx

Clinton 49 Giuliani 44 (+5)

Clinton 51 Romney 42 (+9)

Clinton 54 Huckabee 37 (+17)

Clinton 46 McCain 47 (-1)

Obama 41 Giuliani 49 (-8)

Obama 45 Romney 41 (+4)

Obama 48 Huckabee 38 (+10)

Obama 37 McCain 52 (-15)

There's more...

SurveyUSA poll released this morning for Florida:

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.a spx

In Florida, Hillary Clinton BEATS ALL THREE Republicans polled by at least 6 points.  

Obama LOSES TO ALL THREE Republicans.

Edwards LOSES to Rudy Giuliani by 5 points; Edwards beats Thompson by 5 points less than Hillary.

Clinton 49 - Giuliani 43  (+6)
Clinton 50 - Thompson 42  (+8)
Clinton 51 - Romney 41  (+10)

Obama 41 - Giuliani 50  (-9)
Obama 42 - Thompson 48  (-6)
Obama 44 - Romney 46  (-2)  

Edwards 43 - Giuliani 48  (-5)
Edwards 46 - Thompson 43  (+3)
Edwards 50 - Romney 37 (+13)

Hillary does 11 points better than Edwards when matched-up against Giuliani. She performs 5 points better than Edwards when matched-up against Thompson.  Edwards does 3 points better against Romney, but Hillary still beats Romney by 10 points ...

There's more...

Another SUSA poll - this time for Massachusetts !

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.a spx

Hillary Clinton beats all three Republicans polled by at least 25 points.  Just like in California and New York State polls, Hillary also beats all three Republicans by largest margin of any Democrat (biggest margin of all, btw, is Hillary over former Governor Romney, LOL !):

Clinton 59 - Giuliani 34  (+25)
Clinton 61 - Thompson 32  (+29)
Clinton 65 - Romney 31  (+34)

Obama 48 - Giuliani 43  (+5)
Obama 53 - Thompson 36  (+17)
Obama 57 - Romney 35  (+22)

Edwards 48 - Giuliani 40  (+8)
Edwards 56 - Thompson 31  (+25)
Edwards 57 - Romney 32 (+25)

There's more...