(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

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Last weekend, I was lucky enough to see the state of the race for myself. I traveled to the heart of Battleground Country. Because Nevada's 5 electoral votes are up for grabs and two Nevada Republicans may lose their House seats this fall, I wanted to do something to help. That's why I packed my bags, took some spare change for my favorite slot machines (NOT!), and made sure my family in Henderson had an extra bed for me to crash on.

I went to Vegas, baby, and I'm giving you the full report on what's happening there!

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In answer to yesterday's diary, here's what the Obama campaign is now putting out about their Iowa strategy and how that will impact the race:

They see hope in the fact that although she is surging ahead elsewhere in the country, Iowa remains a tight race between Clinton, Obama and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards.

"She's run a great campaign, and she's still at 30 percent," says Steve Hildebrand, who is responsible for Obama's early state strategy.

The Obama strategy for Iowa, outlined by Hildebrand in an interview with The Associated Press and confirmed by other advisers, is three-pronged:

1. Keep Clinton's support down.
   
2. Keep Edwards from surging ahead.
   
3. Continue building Obama's support among both traditional and nontraditional voters.

It's notable that while this strategy has been tried elsewhere by insurgents, Obama would be the first one to have such a large cash box to back it up.

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Lately, I've started to fall prey to the media juggernaut that is Hillary Clinton. But, there is tremendous reason to hope. While Hill supporters will give you poll after poll after poll, the game is still on. And I now believe that Obama is still firmly in the midst of the game and positioned to win. He's playing chess while Hillary is playing checkers. She keeps going "King me!" but Obama is positioning his Queen for a triumphant "Checkmate!"

Caveat Emptor

I have made no secret that I support Barack Obama. And while I would support Hillary if she is the nominee, I would be disappointed. I would also be disappointed with John Edwards. Both would be fine presidents. But I feel like Hillary would be more of the same. And Edwards while changing the game would not do so in a manner that I think would ultimately move the country -- it's a matter of strategy.

The Media Race

Everyone is saying it: Hillary has solidified her lead. The latest fundraising numbers from Q3 have been used as a cudgel by the Hillary camp to blast home the trend that Obama's last hope of beating her has been conquered. And while that claim seemed spurious to me, the media has kept touting it. And, like many of Obama's elite supporters, I was feeling like the fight was being lost.

In recent weeks, Barack Obama's chief campaign strategist David Axelrod has met with major contributors at the campaign's Chicago headquarters and in private homes to allay concerns about his candidate's lack of movement in the national polls. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has presided over conference calls to calm down jittery bundlers. The candidate himself has even gotten on the phone with groups of big donors to assure them that the campaign is on the right track.

"They were spending time trying to make all of us confident that there is a strategy," said one major donor to Mr. Obama, who attended a meeting of the campaign's finance team at the Chicago headquarters about a month ago. "And I remember David [Axelrod] saying that he thought Barack was positioned well. And all of a sudden it's turning into October, and I'm not sure I see a strategy. And if it is being implemented--I'm not sure I see it being implemented so effectively.

"Is it frustrating? Highly," said the donor. "National polls do matter, number one. They say don't worry, don't worry, we're positioned well. Well, what does that mean?"

But there's a curious meta-media rumbling that is happening on the edges. It says that the race is still very much going on. It says that Hillary's win was not by much. It also says that at this level, it hardly matters.

Where Things Stand

Hillary effectively stepped on Obama's big anniversary speech. That was very good media management. But it didn't play in the place where it counted most -- Iowa.

The Des Moines Register gave prominent play to the speech on its front page, with the headline: "Obama: Put End to Nuclear Weapons." Beneath it, below the fold, was a one-paragraph squib with the small headline: "Clinton Edges Obama," referring to an article inside about the fund-raising.

As we saw earlier this week, Obama is gaining an edge in Iowa. While there is some controversy about Newsweek's poll and whether it has true statistical relevance (least of all that this is there first with no trend lines), it still shows that it is a three way fight there. More than that, Obama is the best organized candidate in the state.

But Obama's first words were not in his text, even though they may have been the most important words he spoke all day.

"If you have not yet signed up as a Barack Obama supporter, hopefully after the speech you will," he told the crowd at the Polk County Convention Complex.

"Fill out one of those cards. We'll have volunteers all across the doors. You won't be able to get out without seeing one of these cards."

Pretty mundane stuff, right? Which is why most candidates don't bother with it. Especially not in a speech being covered by the national press, with six TV cameras grinding away.

But that Obama did bother with it is the most important sign I have seen that he actually understands Iowa.

Obama has thirty-one offices across the state. He's doing the work that the Dean campaign didn't do. He truly understands how different Iowa is than the rest of the country. And he's working it. He may or may not finish first, but he will definitely not finish below second. And that will catapult him through to New Hampshire. Iowa is a three person race, and whoever comes in first and second there will be positioned to continue on in the race.

So, I've changed the channel. The lazy media punditocracy will continue to say one thing until the picture changes. Hey, remember how Iowa was a race between Clark and Dean a few years ago? Oh, yeah. Let's all stop playing into the traditional narrative. I know the diehard Hillary supporters will continue to spray the national and even state polls around as proof of her inevitability. I don't begrudge them that (and those who try to change their minds are a bit naive). It's part of Hillary's strategy. But the rest of us should watch things more closely.

Obama supporters should have the most hope of all. He's just turned it on. And in the place where it really matters, he won the news cycle this week and is finally beginning his real campaign.

Having had time to read Barack Obama's foreign policy speech and talk with some of his advisers and some of his rivals advisers, I'm drawn to the conclusion that yesterday was meant to be a launch pad of sorts for the final stage of Obama's campaign argument.

Obama, an aide said, wrote the speech himself. It is much less cerebral and much more direct than his usual forays into policy. Actually, it wasn't a foray so much as a surgical strike. Half the speech was a sustained, detailed criticism of the foreign policy establishment. The rest was a precis of the ways in which president Obama would challenge conventional wisdom.

Just when people are really starting to pay attention, Obama has upped the ante. And he's playing to win. I know I'm heartened. And I can now see a winning strategy through the media haze that's obscured my vision.

Update [2007-10-5 11:33:2 by blackmahn]: Check out The Guardian for a really great article by Nedra Pickler (hard to actually say her name positively since she seemed like such a tool a while ago).

The Obama strategy for Iowa, outlined by Hildebrand in an interview with The Associated Press and confirmed by other advisers, is three-pronged:

1. Keep Clinton's support down.

Obama has to be careful about how he makes the case against Clinton, since he's campaigning on the need for a new kind of politics of hope instead of rivals tearing each other down. He's been taking the indirect approach - criticizing the actions of the Washington establishment and letting voters and the media make the connection to Clinton.

``People hold Barack to a different standard in politics because of his own rhetoric,'' Hildebrand said. ``He can't turn to Hillary and say, `You can't get elected because you're too polarizing. ... It's got to be in his own voice. It's got to be measured. It's got to be appropriate. It's got to be factual.''

2. Keep Edwards from surging ahead.

Obama's advisers insist they do not see Edwards as a threat for the nomination even if he wins Iowa because he doesn't have enough money to continue an aggressive campaign in the 24 other states that will follow within a month. But if Edwards emerges as the top competitor with Clinton after the Iowa results, it could squeeze Obama out.

That's why the campaign spent so much time trying to keep Edwards from getting the endorsement of the Service Employees International Union last month. Anything that gives Edwards a boost comes at a cost to Obama, and so far SEIU has withheld its endorsement.

3. Continue building Obama's support among both traditional and nontraditional voters.

Obama will have plenty of resources to air television ads across all the early voting states, plus he has a large field staff in those states working intensively to recruit supporters and keep them on board. Hildebrand said 1,900 new supporters signed up the week before the interview, more than half of whom had never caucused before.

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