In Michigan, Obama's Chickens are Coming Home to Roost
by Grendel was misunderstood, Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 06:16:20 AM EDT
"I'm very proud that as of today I have received more votes ... than anybody else," Clinton said. "It's a very close race, but if you count as I do the 2.3 million people who voted in Florida and Michigan..."
We all can agree that the situation with Michigan is a mess. That the DNC let this situation develop is a clear case of political malpractice that ultimately must be laid at the door of Dr. Dean. But after the initial injury and as the consequences of such a festering anti Democratic wound caused by letting millions of Michigan Democrats be uncounted was understood, corrective surgery was offered, scheduled and paid for. This plan to rejunivate the health of the gasping MI Dems was to hold a revote. Dr. Dean this time had the right judgment and along with the Governor of Michigan and its Congressional leaders, he supported the plan. The problem was that the Obama campaign, pulled the plug and killed the revoting plan dead in its bed - while Michigan Democracy was well on the way to a recovery.
The Obama partisans response has been to repeat the strange and snide defense that "they didnt know that Obama had such awesome powers" to stop such a process by himself. Well, nobody said he stopped it by himself. He stopped it with the help of Obama loyal legislators in the Michigan assembly - who followed the instructions of the Obama campaign's attack dog lawyer, Bob Bauer, who had an entire laundry list of legalistic reasoning of why it was the RIGHT THING - to disenfranchise every single Michigan Democrat. (Bauer/Obama/Michigan - no revote for you - memo is here - http://www.rants.org/wp-content/uploads/ 2008/03/bauer-michigan-memo.pdf)
Why the Obama campaign stopped the Michigan revote is clear. They thought a revote would help the Clinton campaign, at their expense. But I NEVER understood that reasoning, being that a Clinton-Obama revote in that state possibly could be quite close. The Obama campaign's repeated offer, the now-familiar call to split the Michigan and Florida delegations evenly between the two candidates is a snide and cynical joke.
In truth, I thought a Michigan revote might be fatal to Hillary's prospects to catch up in the delegate count. And when they stopped it - I thought it was a huge mistake by the Obama campaign and now - a month later -that reality has become even clearer.It makes me wonder if Obama/Bauer/Axelrod both overthought AND underthought this revote. They obviously blocked it because they thought it was a Clinton ploy for advantage. But because the consequences of their act to block Michigan voters may now have the effect of seating the ENTIRE Michigan delegation (as originally voted in the state primary ) I wonder if in reality, did they just fall for the ol' "don't push me in that prickly bad brier patch" routine as played by Clinton's new and VERY SMART campaign team. (Sounds like something Doug Sosnick and Craig Smith and Ickes WOULD come up with) You see, the Obama campaign chose to actively work to disenfranchise the very votes that may be the ones that come back to end their campaign.
It seems that the Obama campaign - as regards to Michigan - have made it a "All" or "Nothing" choice. The Obama campaign while deciding that they were going to push hard and pressure for the "Nothing" option, seems to have made it likely, if not inevitable, that the long term effect will be giving "All" to their opponent. The Obama campaign forced out the third choice of a party revote and left only the arguably unfair option to count the voters as voted or an unarguably untenable option to not count Michigan voters at all. I think we can all agree that sometimes life is unfair, but it sure doesnt have to be "untenable".
The Michigan convention delegation has now been chosen, along with their superdelegates and all agree that eventually, they will be seated in Denver. Personally, I dont see a way out of this mess that Obama created for himself that doesnt threaten to tar him as the candidate who
blocked free Democracy itself.
The chickens may not have come home yet, but be sure, they will be roosting somewhere in the Convention hall in Denver in August.
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An Editorial from today's Detroit News:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/art icle?AID=/20080424/OPINION01/804240315/1 008
Michigan is becoming Clinton's secret weapon
Susan J. DemasIf you punched your ballot for "uncommitted" in Michigan's Jan. 15 Democratic presidential primary to back Barack Obama, your vote might have essentially gone to Hillary Clinton anyway.
While all eyes were locked on Pennsylvania for the last six weeks, Clinton was quietly amassing delegates in the Wolverine State. And she was rewarded this past weekend with a significant victory at the district conventions.
This development naturally has been overshadowed by her big win Tuesday night in Pennsylvania. But the race for the Democratic nomination wasn't decided then and won't be by the remaining contests -- not North Carolina, Indiana or even Guam -- because the real fight is over delegates. And Michigan remains a key battleground.
On Aug. 25, Clinton will march into the national convention in Denver stronger than most people realize, thanks to her aggressive ground game in Michigan.
Buoyed by party elder support, Clinton seems likely to capture more than 60 percent of the state's 128 pledged delegates, according to an analysis by the Michigan Information & Research Service. Including the 28 superdelegates, which lean heavily in the New York senator's favor, she could win upward of 70 percent of delegates, provided that they're seated with full voting power.
That depends on the Democratic National Committee, which punished Michigan for leapfrogging the primary schedule. There is no deal yet to seat the delegation. But the Clinton camp is working overtime to ensure the elected slate is sent. Keep in mind that Clinton won 55 percent to uncommitted's 40 percent since Obama wasn't on the ballot. He has pushed for a 50-50 percent delegate split, but that proposal hasn't gained traction.
It's becoming apparent that Obama should have consented to a revote here. He certainly wouldn't have lost by 15 percentage points or more; polls have pegged the pair in a dead heat. But Obama seemed spooked that Clintonites put forth the plan and the money, so he quashed the do-over last month.
Now Obama is paying the price in delegates, starting with the Michigan Democratic Party's 15 district conventions on Saturday. The Clinton battle plan was flawlessly executed with an eye toward a contested convention. Their delegate roster is crammed with big names like former Gov. Jim Blanchard and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero.
"We wanted to pick people who would be loyal to Hillary, who would commit to her through multiple ballots," Blanchard says.
Michiganders for Obama, a ragtag group of new volunteers, triumphed in turnout Saturday but were steamrolled by the Clinton machine. Obama has proved to be a master of organization, but he made a tactical error not to plump up his skeletal apparatus in Michigan.
As a result, he will almost certainly fall short of the 36 uncommitted delegates selected. Volunteers argued that only Obama supporters should be uncommitted delegates, but they were outmaneuvered. About half of the uncommitted delegates reserved the right to vote for Clinton, depending on whom their unions eventually endorse.
While union officials flatly deny they're in the tank for Clinton, Obama supporters point out that United Auto Workers Legislative Coordinator Nadine Nosal was elected in the 8th District as an alternate Clinton delegate. That underscores the fact that Obama's speech to the Detroit Economic Club last year, calling for higher federal fuel economy standards, went over with labor leaders like a lead balloon.
In May, the party's labor-heavy, Clinton-friendly central committee chooses the remaining 45 delegates, setting up a scenario of more uncommitted delegates switching to Clinton.
Given her narrow path to the nomination, Clinton and her aides have argued that pledged delegates are fair game to flip. Although they've since backed away from such statements, the Michigan delegate conventions show the Clinton delegate strategy is being set into motion. What this could mean is four very interesting days in Denver. Although the odds still favor Obama -- who leads in delegates, the popular vote and states won -- he has to be a bit rattled over two losses in one week.
If Clinton comes out on top in a floor war, we might well look back at the Michigan mêlée as the turning point.
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