The polls are now closed in VA-01. Results will be updated HERE.

For whatever it's worth, Not Larry Sabato projects Republican Rob Wittman to be the winner, based on turnout numbers. We'll see as the actuals come in.

Update [2007-12-11 20:8:20 by Todd Beeton]: With 99.5% precincts reporting:

Wittman (R): 62.2%
Forgit (D): 35.9%
Narain (I): 1.8%

Update [2007-12-11 19:33:38 by Todd Beeton]: Raising Kaine and Not Larry Sabato are calling it a "blow-out." Not sure how much this puppy is going to close but the bright side to a Wittman victory, from Swing State Project comments:

if Rob Wittman beats Forgit, ti opens up his seat in the state house and Pollard (D) seems to want it back, so we should get a +1 seat in the Virginia house if we lose for US Congress today.

Update [2007-12-11 19:44:13 by Todd Beeton]:Some context: John Kerry got 39% in 2004 and JoAnn Davis's Dem challenger got 35.5% in 2006.

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From Don Mikulecky at dailyKos:

We were out there at 6 AM and set up the canopy and the literature table for Phil Forgit for congress.  Turn out was light, but there seemed to be mostly Democrats.  The Republicans had no one there [handing out literature] so we had the place to ourselves.  Either they are so confident that they feel like they don't have to bother, or they are sitting this one out.  There is a third, independent candidate who calls himself "a true conservative" and that may have a message in it as well. [...]

1 PM UPDATE:  Seems that turnout is now already over the expected 10%.  I don't know what this means.  The republicans finally have a few people out passing out stuff.  Not very impressive.  We go back at 4 PM.

From VirginiaDem:

It's now just 2pm and voters in Virginia's 1st Congressional District have been going oh so very slowly to the polls to vote in today's Special Election. [...]

With almost 3,000 registered voters [Fredericksburg] is a pivitol precinct that is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.  Voter turnout at this location is very low with only 134 ballots cast at 10:15 am.  Low voter turnout numbers are still being reported across the 1st District.  In two Stafford precincts with over 3,000 registered voters each one reports 326 ballots cast and the other 385. One of the most interesting reports comes out of the Gloucester area.  Seems Lucky Narain, the independent candidate is getting GOTV help from some disgruntled Republicans.  They don't seem to mind helping Phil Forgit on to victory.

From commenter John Carter at Raising Kaine:

Middle Peninsula today.

Things were promising but light in northern York.  One concern, the most heavily African-American precinct was especially light, at least in the morning.

Judging only by signage, Prince William has respectable coverage, King and Queen is too light and Gloucester is a black hole...One surprise, Lucky Narain had good coverage all through the Middle Peninsula.  He's only going to hurt Wittman, because after all, Lucky's the "True Conservative."

Polls close at 7pm EST. Check back here for live results as they come in.

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• Jim Himes, Democratic candidate taking on Chris Shays in CT-04 has stepped up to rally his supporters to phonebank for Robin Weirauch in OH-05 and Phil Forgit in VA-01. In the wake of the news that Chris Shays injected himself into the OH-05 race by contributing $2,000 to Weirauch's opponent, Bob Latta, in the waning days of the campaign, Himes sent out an e-mail to his list:

  We don't have as much money to throw around as Chris Shays' campaign does, but we do have "people power" -- can you set aside an hour or two to make some phone calls to help get out the vote for Robin and Phil?

  Contact Robin Weirauch's campaign here: phonebank4robin@gmail.com

  Or to help Phil Forgit's campaign, contact Adam White, Deputy GOTV director: adwhite07@gmail.com

  If you can make some get-out-the-vote phone calls today or tomorrow, an hour or two of your time can make a big difference in these very close races.  Wouldn't it be great to end 2007 with two more Democratic seats in Congress?

  Indeed. Have you made calls for Robin or Phil yet? It's not too late. Take up Himes's call to action.

  And find out how you can help Himes finish off his quarter strong HERE.

• As if these special elections weren't going to be low turnout enough, the weather forecast in OH-05 is pretty miserable: 90% chance of precipitation combined with near freezing temperatures. This is truly going to come down to GOTV and who's more motivated. By the sound of things on the ground, that certainly seems to favor Robin Weirauch. You've got strong absentee ballot returns, Obama supporters stepping up to phonebank for Weirauch, not to mention some incredibly passionate volunteers on the ground working til all hours for Robin. This is great to see and is exactly the sort of perfect storm we'll need to win this seat. Keep it up!
• It may not be getting the coverage that OH-05 is but in VA-01, Phil Forgit is running one hell of a campaign. He received the endorsement of the local Daily Press over the weekend (a key line: "Forgit represents momentum toward the pragmatic middle, and toward solutions, which is where Congress needs to go" -- no liberal rag, they) and Forgit really impressed at this debate on Friday against his two opponents, Republican Rob Wittman and self-described conservative Independent Lucky Narain (h/t Raising Kaine.) The fact that Wittman and Narain may split conservative votes in the district is something that's gone relatively unexplored and could really make an impact in Forgit's favor tomorrow. So don't count this guy out.

These two districts are really red; they really shouldn't be all that competitive but we've seen what we can accomplish with special elections through intensified GOTV efforts. So, call or e-mail your friends and family in the districts, get them out to vote and e-mail the folks above about doing some last minute phonebanking. These races are going to come down to the wire and Robin and Phil need all the help we can give them.

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Ohio's 5th seems to be the place the DCCC has decided to make a stand on Tuesday but there's another special election happening that day in Virginia's 1st district. Arguably, we should have just as good a shot at winning this special, considering how the district has voted in the past. For instance, in 2004, both districts went about 60% for Bush and 39% Kerry.

One big difference between the two races, though, is that Robin Weirauch, the Democratic challenger in Ohio's 5th, had run before and so had some name recognition and some organization to work with. The same can not be said of Phil Forgit, who was chosen to be the nominee in VA-01 by a Democratic nominating convention in November. Forgit's nomination was secured largely thanks to both his military experience (he is an Iraq War Vet and Bronze Star recipient) as well as a strong prior run for state assembly -- from Forgit's website:

Philip beat the Performance Index in the highly Republican 96th House of Delegates District by 13 points when he ran in 2003. What does that mean? Given the make-up of the district and its past history, Philip got 13% more of the vote than a reasonably-funded, Democratic candidate would have been expected to get. That's the kind of performance we need in the 1st CD!

But if the DCCC and, to a large degree, the national blogosphere, have largely ignored the VA-01 race, the local netroots and Democratic leaders have not. Tim Kaine held a fundraisier for Forgit today, Mark Warner will be holding a GOTV rally on Monday and Raising Kaine tells us there's a sense of optimism on the ground:

I'm hearing that things are going extremely well with phonebanks for Phil.  Volunteers are making lots of calls and getting a great response.  I haven't heard any news from the northern part of CD-1 (anyone care to chime in?), but at least in the southern half of the district, the energy and enthusiasm for Philip appears to be very high.

I'm also hearing from Democratic activists in CD-1 that we definitely have a shot at picking up this seat (one comments, "regardless of what the naysayers at the DCCC think").  The Republicans may have more money, but Democrats have the grassroots energy and the will to win.  People are feeling hopeful, having fun, and spreading the word to all their Democratic friends that they need to vote for Phil.  The way politics should be, in other words.

Forgit also got a boost from Barack Obama who set up a virtual phonebanking tool on his website to help GOTV on Tuesday, as he had also done for Robin Weirauch. You can access that tool HERE.

Someone else has injected himself into the race as well: House minority leader John Boehner, who will forgo appearing in his home state of Ohio on Bob Latta's behalf in favor of rallying  for Forgit's Republican opponent, Rob Wittman.

If that doesn't make you want to help send Phil Forgit to congress...

So, check out Phil Forgit online HERE, give to his campaign HERE, and if you're in the area, go see how you can help on the ground in the final days of the campaign HERE.

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In case you haven't heard, there's a special election in Virginia's 1st CD just 1 week from today.  The reason I say "in case you haven't heard" is that there's been very little discussion of this race on the national progressive blogosphere, particularly in contrast with the other 12/11 special election in Ohio.  Although there's not much time left, I'm hoping we can turn that around and get some "love" for Phil Forgit in Virginia as well as for Robin Weirauch in Ohio.

Again, the election is being held in Virginia's 1st congressional district between Phil Forgit (D), Rob Wittman (R), and "true conservative" independent candidate Lucky Narain (ha, LOVE that one!). The special was called by Gov. Kaine after the death of Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R) on October 6, 2007.  The district definitely leans Republican, with Bush/Cheney getting 54% in 2004.

Who is Phil Forgit?  From his announcement (bolding added by me for emphasis):

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