I'm always interested to see what Public Policy Polling's results are out of North Carolina since a. they're based there and b. they saw an Obama surge in the South Carolina primary before anyone else did. So what do they show in this week's poll? Both Barack Obama and Kay Hagan are surging after a dip in support a week ago.

First Kay Hagan:

Hagan's success, in what Tom Jensen calls "one of the best run [campaigns] in the country this year," is based on her ability to limit Elizabeth Dole's support among registered Democrats.

North Carolina is a state with a large Democratic identification advantage. That means for Republicans to win here they need to take a much bigger chunk of the Democratic vote than Democratic candidates get of the Republican vote. But in this race those figures are nearly equal: Hagan is up 81-12 with Democrats and Dole is up 83-10 with Republicans. If Dole can't peel off more of the other party's voters than that she has virtually no chance of winning.

Jensen attributes some of this to a definite Obama coattails effect.

Next Barack Obama:

Obama is also succeeding in uniting Democrats behind him but the primary reason for Barack Obama's strength in NC: white voters.

In both 2000 and 2004 George W. Bush won about two thirds of white voters here, but Obama is holding John McCain to a 55-39 lead with that group, almost halving the margin by which the GOP won them in the last two elections. McCain will likely need to increase his lead with whites by at least ten points if he's going to win North Carolina.

As of this poll, the Pollster trend estimate has Obama up 3.3% and 538 projects an Obama victory by just 1.1%.

Dean Debham of Public Policy Polling gives his take on what to expect November 4th:

Today is the first time I've truly believed that if there is no major shift in McCain's direction nationally over the next two weeks, Barack Obama really will win North Carolina.

One thing Jensen does not address on the blog is what he believes is responsible for the reversal of what appeared to be a McCain/Dole surge last week. Was it random noise? The result of a recent McCain or Palin visit? Or are we simply just seeing a solidifying of support for Obama and Hagan? I'll be sure to ask them.

There's more...

Wow. Public Policy Polling has released its latest poll from their home turf of North Carolina (1,041 LVs, Sept. 28-29. MOE +/- 3%) and it just keeps looking better and better for Barack Obama and Democratic senate challenger (and Road To 60 candidate) Kay Hagan.

First the presidential:

From PPP's blog:

Independents are moving toward Obama in droves. Where last week he had a 42-39 advantage with them, now he is up 48-37. He also now receives 36% of the white vote, up from 33%. He will likely need 35-38% in that demographic to win the state, depending on how high turnout from black voters is.

Next the Senate race

And again, from PPP's blog:

Particularly troubling for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.

As was the case a week ago and really, all year, the Democrats' rise in the state has directly correlated with the increase in the number of people who list the economy as their top issue. Last week, 58% said it was their top issue and Obama and McCain were tied; this week that % is up to 64% and Barack is up by 2%.

This is now the 4th poll (2 of which were PPP) in less than 2 weeks that have shown Obama either tied with or ahead of McCain in North Carolina. Pollster's trend estimate has McCain up by just 1.5% while RCP's average has Obama up .7%. North Carolina is now a bona fide toss-up. And if you'd like to take a look at what an election night with a blue NC looks like, check out this sweet sweet EV map from RCP.

As for Hagan, this is just the latest poll showing her ahead of Elizabeth Dole. Hell, even Pollster has it colored a light shade of blue. Help Kay Hagan turn that a bright shade of blue by contributing to her campaign at our Road To 60 ActBlue page.

Update [2008-9-29 23:16:51 by Todd Beeton]:Updated with promised link to rockin RCP EV map.

There's more...

Public Policy Polling has released a new poll out of North Carolina (1,060 LVs, Sept. 17-19, MOE +/- 3%) with good news for both Barack Obama and Kay Hagan (9/9 results in parentheses.)

Obama 46 (44)
McCain 46 (48)

Hagan 46 (43)
Dole 41 (42)

PPP concludes that the surges of 4 and 5 points respectively for the Democrats in just 10 days are directly attributable to concerns over the economy. For both Hagan and Obama, as economic anxiety increases, so does their overall support in the state.

The % of respondents who now name the economy as their number one issue is at 58%, the highest it's been all year and a huge 10% increase since late August. Among these voters, Kay Hagan wins 57-30 over Dole and Obama wins 58-34 over McCain.

While it should be noted that the margin of error increases as the sample size shrinks, the trend is remarkably consistent, as this chart from PPP's blog illustrates:

Date	% economy top issue	Spread
1/21/08	39	McCain +14
5/9/08	43	McCain +7
8/23/08	48	McCain +3
9/19/08	58	Tied

But is this enough to drive Democrats to victory in NC this year? Nate Silver is skeptical yet concedes that the McCain campaign is certainly not taking North Carolina for granted.

The McCain campaign said Saturday that it had opened 14 offices in the state and hired 20 paid staffers — a number that said it would likely grow to 20 offices and 25 to 30 staffers.

"This is a state that Sen. Obama and his campaign have targeted and put extraordinary resources and finances in the state," said Mike DuHaime, the political director for the North Carolina McCain campaign.

In another push, President Bush is scheduled to attend a fundraiser in Greensboro on Sept. 30 to raise money for the McCain-Palin ticket.

And Barack did campaign in Charlotte, NC today, speaking out about the proposed $700b bailout. His campaign seems to get that the higher the economy is on the list of priorities of voters in a red state like North Carolina, the less likely it is that the Republicans will be able to distract voters with their usual wedge issues. As the PPP blog put it:

Republican Presidential candidates tend to win in North Carolina even though the Democrats have a large registration advantage because conservative Democrats and independents so often choose the GOP candidate. Their choices are often driven by social issues and immigration. The more those voters make their decisions based on the economy the more likely Democrats are to succeed.

There's more...

The latest Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll (852 LVs, Aug. 20-26) shows real trouble for Elizabeth Dole and John McCain in North Carolilna this November.

First off, in a head to head match-up, Elizabeth Dole is now running 5 points behind her MyDD Road to 60 challenger Kay Hagan.

Hagan 50
Dole 45

This appears to be more an anti-Dole vote than a pro-Hagan vote. First of all, only 46% of those polled are even familiar with Kay Hagan but they appear to really want Dole gone: her job approval rating is down to 38%.

Public Policy Polling, which conducted a poll around the same time and found Hagan up 3 points over Dole, attributes Hagan's lead to DSCC's strong ads against Dole:

What the DSCC is doing to Elizabeth Dole right now is the political equivalent of a punch in the gut from Muhammad Ali.

Kay Hagan has taken a narrow lead in North Carolina's Senate race after trailing by 14 points just two months ago.

There's not much doubt where the momentum is coming from. 69% of voters in the state have seen the television ads about Elizabeth Dole's #93 ranking for effectiveness in the US Senate, and among those folks Hagan has an even wider 45-39 lead. Dole's saving grace is voters who don't watch much tv- she leads 45-34 with those who have not seen the ad.

At the presidential level, while John McCain is still holding Barack Obama off, albeit by a measley 3 points (47-44), there are some real warning signs for the Republican, namely that his message simply is not getting out to North Carolina voters. Not only does Obama do better than McCain on the issues of the economy and jobs, energy and even taxes, on a personal level:

Over half (55 percent) of North Carolina voters believe the statement "has good judgment" describes Barack Obama and a majority of voters (54 percent) reject the notion that "not ready to lead" describes Obama.

In other words, Barack Obama's message about himself is getting through, John McCain's message about Obama is not.

There's more...

Rasmussen Reports on Virginia:

The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If "leaners" are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

[...]

In five of the last six polls, Obama and McCain have been within five points of each other. Only in March with the Jeremiah Wright controversy raging did the Republican candidate jump ahead significantly -- by 11 points.

And on North Carolina:

The race is still close between John McCain and Barack Obama in the traditionally red state of North Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 45% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. When "leaners" are included, McCain leads 48% to 45%.

McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Both of the surveys show that Barack Obama's favorable/unfavorable numbers appear to be harder at this juncture than those of John McCain -- a thought-provoking set of data considering it is McCain who has been on the political scene for the past three decades, and the past several years in particular, and Obama who broke out nationally just within the last few years.

These numbers, if correct, seem to suggest to me, then, that Obama still has quite a bit of room to try to define McCain as the Republican has apparently not yet been successful in completely defining himself with the electorate despite the fact that he has invested heavily in the past month or so on bio spots. Of course the opposite is true, too; McCain does still have time to define himself as well. But while there is a tendency to believe that it is preferable to save up for the last month or two of the general election rather than spend big in the summer months, if Obama can shape voters views of McCain now -- both in these key reddish-purple states, without which McCain cannot win, as well as across the country -- Obama's chances of winning come November could be greatly increased.

There's more...