Rasmussen Polling Irregularities - A first post

It's already well established that Rasmussen polls are consistently to the right of other polls, and this is often explained in terms of legitimate differences in methodological minutiae. However, looking at the a large database of Rasmussen polls, it seems that their pro-republican bias, or House Effect, is not monolithic. There seems to be evidence that Rasmussen's house effect is much larger when Republicans are behind, and that it appears and disappears quickly at different points in the election cycle.

 

See graphs and more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

 

There's more...

The math: Obama has the better GE viability.

I, the great Quadrino, shall now look into the crystal ball and... OK, I'm only marginally adequate with basic writing and really bad at sarcastically dramatic writing. But I'd like to talk about the current polling with regards to the general election.

As I mentioned previously, Kerry had a substantial electoral college lead, almost identical to Hillary's current lead, on this date four years ago. Arguments have been made that Clinton's lead is significant. But substantial movement from voters led to that-which-shall-not-be-named in 2004. What would happen if the same movement occurred today? Is Hillary Swift-Boat safe? What about Obama?

There's more...

For Superdelegates: It's The Voters Math That Counts Most

For Superdelegates:  It's The Voters Math That
Counts Most

According to the U. S. Census Bureau, the
following is a rough break down of the U. S.
population which I'll call the Voters Pool.  

Here is the URL for the link to the Census
Bureau information I am using:  
http://www.census.gov/Press-
Release/www/releases/archives/american_c ommunity
_survey_acs/007748.html

Voters Pool (initial)

13.4 % African-Americans
77   % Whites
9.6  % Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

I am assuming that "Everybody Else" primarily
includes Hispanics and Asians.  

For purposes of this article, I further
breakdown the Voters Pool with respect to
educational levels of whites since these have
been the most numerous demographic groups in the
Democratic Party primaries.  

Voters Pool (first breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %..college graduates [30% X 77%]
46.2 %...high sch. grads (not college) [60%X77%]
 7.7 % ...not high graduates [10% X 77%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

As far as I know, Democratic primary voting
demographics, such as shown on various TV
networks, have not differentiated between high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates.  Therefore, I have added high
school grads (without college) and not high
school graduates together which I call "not
college graduates".  

Voters Pool (second breakdown)

13.4 % African-Americans
       Whites (77%)
23.1 %...college graduates [30% X 77%]
53.9 %...not college grads..[46.2% + 7.7%]
 9.6 %  Everbody Else
100.0 % SUM

For what follows, I know I'm making a number of
simplifications relating to age, gender, the
population distribution in specific states (such
as urban versus rural), and the effect of a
third party candidate, but I'm not a political
scientist or a mathematician.  

Below, first I present five scenarios relating
to Barack Obama versus John McCain in the
general election.  Second, I present five
scenarios relating to Hillary Clinton versus
McCain in the general election.  

For each scenario, the final SUM number
indicates the percentage of the voters who are
projected for Obama or Clinton, respectively.
Of course, if the SUM is less than 50%, the
candidate loses to McCain in the scenario.  On
the other hand, if the SUM is greater than 50%,
the candidate beats McCain in the scenario.  

CONCLUSION from the results below:  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.  

FIRST, here are five voting scenarios for Barack
Obama in the general election against John
McCain.  The scenarios start off bad and get
better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, these scenarios include
Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.  For
all the Barack Obama scenarios, I assume that
Obama receives 95% of the African-American vote.

Scenario No. 1B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
16,2 %..not college grads. [Assume: 30%X53.9%]
4.3 %  Everbody Else {Assume: 45%X9.6%}
45.9 % SUM (1B)

Scenario No. 2B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
48.6 % SUM (2B)

Scenario No. 3B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 45%X9.6%]
49.8 % SUM (3B)

Scenario No. 4B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
13.9 %..college graduates [Assume 60% X 23.1%]
18.9 %..not college grads. [Assume: 35%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.3 % SUM (4B)

Scenario No. 5B:  Votes for Barack Obama
12.7 % African-Americans [Assume: 95% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
15.0 %..college graduates [Assume 65% X 23.1%]
21.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 40%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.1 % SUM (5B)

SECOND, here are some voting scenarios for
Hillary Clinton in the general election against
John McCain.  These scenarios start off bad and
get better.  Since percentages in the overall
population are used, they include Democrats,
Republicans, and Independents.  For all Hillary
Clinton scenarios, I assume that Clinton
receives 33% of the African-American vote.  

Scenario No. 1H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
11.6 %..college graduates [Assume 50% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
50.4 % SUM (1H)

Scenario No. 2H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
51.5 % SUM (2H)

Scenario No. 3H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
29.6 %..not college grads. [Assume: 55%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
52.0 % SUM (3H)

Scenario No. 4H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
4.8  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 50%X9.6%]
54.2 % SUM (4H)

Scenario No. 5H:  Votes for Hillary Clinton
4.4 % African-Americans [Assume: 33% X 13.4%]
       Whites (77% = 23.1% + 53.9%)
12.7 %..college graduates [Assume 55% X 23.1%]
32.3 %..not college grads. [Assume: 60%X53.9%]
5.3  %  Everbody Else [Assume: 55%X9.6%]
54.7 % SUM (5H)

CONCLUSION (repeated from above):  
Clinton beats McCain in 5 out of 5 scenarios.  
Obama beats McCain in 2 out of 5 scenarios.

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Your Penis Larger, with UPROUNDERS!

Hi, my name is Jeffrey Lieber and before I got started on the UPROUNDERS program my "certain part of the male anatomy" was mere inches long, but with the help of UPROUNDERS my "junk" now measures a full 22 inches, or almost TWO FULL FEET!

How did I do it... and how can YOU do it too?

Well let me show YOU how UPROUNDERS five step program works for EVERYONE...

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A projected Final (all the votes counted) margin in PA...

Redacted

Diaries

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