According to NBC News, Barack Obama will be the winner of the Maryland primary "by a significant margin." John McCain is also projected to win the state.

Update [2008-2-12 21:40:20 by Jonathan Singer]: Obama wins Maryland Latinos 53 percent to 47 percent. Again, this isn't Texas, but Obama winning the Hispanic vote in both Virginia and Maryland can't be bad news as he tries to come closer to doing the same in subsequent contests, particularly in Texas in three weeks.

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According to NBC News, voting in Maryland has been extended by a judge by 90 minutes, until 9:30 PM Eastern, due to the poor weather in the state. Not sure exactly what, if anything, it augurs for the ultimate results. But voters should have a little more time to vote today. Note, however, that DC polls will be closing on time at 8:00 PM Eastern.

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Marc Ambinder links to a new Constituent Dynamics (pdf) analysis of how delegates out of Maryland, Virginia and DC are likely to be apportioned when all is said and done today based on their polling of 14,276 registered voters in Maryland, Virginia and DC from February 7-8. Overall, they see Obama winning 93, Clinton taking 62, with 13 up in the air. Take this breakdown as an indicator of what's expected to happen tonight in order to judge the candidates' relative over- and under-performance once results come in.

Virginia (83 delegates)

Obama 45
Clinton 32
Too Close 6

Maryland (70 delegates)

Obama 38
Clinton 26
Too Close 6

Washington, DC (15 delegates)

Obama 10
Clinton 4
Too Close 1

It should be noted that this scenario has Obama significantly over-performing one of his campaign's leaked scenarios that would leave him with a pledged delegate lead by the end of the primary process. In addition, the Virginia projections are fairly in line with NotLarrySabato's Virginia estimates, which has the 6 too close to call delegates going to Obama 4-2.

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There seems to be some healthy hand-wringing on the tubes today about Virginia turning into anotherNew Hampshire -- Obama voters complacent, Independents going for McCain, Clinton ekeing out a win -- but by the look of turnout in Virginia today, I don't think there's going to be much of a divergence from the pre-election polls.

From WaPo:

Officials in parts of Virginia have received a record number of absentee ballots, a key barometer of turnout. In Fairfax County, the state's largest jurisdiction, requests for Democratic absentee ballots have more than tripled over 2004. "Saturday was one of our busiest absentee voting days for any election, not just for any primary," said Jackie Harris, the Fairfax general registrar.

This trend is borne out by on the ground reports of huge turnout in the Democratic primary throughout Virginia over at Raising Kaine. I'm amazed how early people get their butts up to vote, but even at the earliest of hours, people are reporting large crowds. They're also reporting far more Dem voters than Republicans (by a 2 to 1 margin in some polling places,) even in red districts. This bodes very well for November.

Of course, this somewhat cryptic update from NotLarrySabato will serve to sober any hopeful Clinton backers:

...based on the emails I am getting, Barack Obama is winning Virginia in an epic blowout.

Turning to Maryland, here's WaPo's take:

In Maryland, Democratic leaders predicted that turnout in the party could reach 1 million voters, shattering the record. Four years ago, about 470,000 Democrats voted in the primary. The record is about 596,000 in 1976, when Jerry Brown defeated Jimmy Carter in the state.

Interestingly, The Baltimore Sun is reporting that at a couple precincts in Obama stronghold Howard County, while excitement is high, turnout appeared lighter than expected this morning.

Early morning voting was a bit more subdued at one polling place in Howard County.

Election judges at the Owen Brown Interfaith Center in Columbia were surprised at the light turnout in the first half-hour of operations. Chief judge Art Blume said 38 voters had appeared by 7:30 a.m. and the room was nearly empty.

"When you listen to the news, it's really a spirited race, but you never can tell," he said.

Pearl Atkinson Stewart, another poll judge, said voters have been much more numerous in the past. "It's very light," she said. "In the morning, we usually have a long line out front."

This report is echoed by yellowdem1129 who says that "there is no Obamania in my town," which lies in the heart of Obama's base in Prince Georges County Maryland.

Weather could also very well be a factor. Word is that there is some truly wintry weather in VA, and my friend up in Baltimore reports that he, like many people, won't be voting until after work, which is when "weather is due to get ugly."

Anyone vote today in VA, DC or MD? Care to share your experience?

Update [2008-2-12 13:35:21 by Todd Beeton]:On MSNBC just now, Chuck Todd echoed the high turnout reports in Virginia but warned that he's looking to Virginia to maybe be the one surprise tonight:

The Wilder effect, the 1989 governor's race, [Douglas Wilder] was up by double digits leading up to election day and he hung on by one percentage point I believe it is and he became the first African-American governor of Virginia...It looks like Obama is going to run away with Virginia, you look not just at polling but there are some turnout indicators I've heard about today that make you think he could do very well but that's the one state I would be cautious on.

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Washington, DC, Virginia and Maryland are going to the polls today. Use this as a prediction thread.

Update [2008-2-12 10:47:18 by Todd Beeton]:For some polling context, RCP 4-poll average of Virginia has Obama up 55-37 and the RCP 3-poll average out of Maryland shows Obama up 55-32.7. Interestingly, both of Survey USA's most recent polls in the states show Obama slightly expanding his lead. Clinton could get some silver lining news out of these expected losses by over-performing this trend, coming in at less than 20 points down, but really, the goal for her today is to minimize the delegate gap between them. NCR at Not Larry Sabato posted a phenomenal breakdown of the potential delegate allocations per congressional district in Virginia, which resulted in a 49-34 split. When I spoke with him last night, he seemed to indicate Clinton could do even better than this, especially considering Obama had essentially conceded certain close areas, such as Roanoke in Southwest VA. The challenge for both candidates is that to get a coveted 3-1 delegate advantage in districts with 4 delegates, they'd need to win 62.5% of the vote, not an easy task.

Update [2008-2-12 11:43:51 by Todd Beeton]:Some more Maryland context from The Baltimore Sun:

John T. Willis, a former Maryland secretary of state with deep experience in Democratic rulemaking, calculates that when all the votes are counted, the primary is probably a fight over no more than six delegates.

"Clinton would be pleased to hold Obama to between a four- and five-delegate advantage," he said, while Obama "is trying to get an eight-to-10-delegate advantage, out of the 70" that will be allocated by tomorrow's primary.

The competition is so tight, he explained, that "one of the reasons Bill Clinton is going into Battle Grove" -- the historically influencial Dundalk Democratic club where the former president campaigned yesterday -- was to try to hold Obama to a one-delegate net gain, rather than three, out of the 15 delegates that are allocated on the basis of the statewide vote.

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