Bumped -- Jonathan

I've finally caught up on my J-J speech viewing and have to agree with David Yepsen that Obama clearly had the best speech last night. What I liked most about it was that Obama finally seemed to find the right balance between being a unity candidate, someone who can bring both parties together, and throwing anti-Republican red meat to the base while at the same time actually expressing pride in being a Democrat. Last night, Obama may have given his very first Democratic primary speech of the campaign. About time, Senator (you can view the speech in its entirety HERE.)

Now, considering the dinner was a Democratic Party event, I suspected the speeches would largely be a Democratic lovefest, saving the harshest critiques for Republicans. While Obama clearly did this, he surprised me by using his speech to also go directly after Hillary Clinton in ways that were both subtle and obvious.

This section was particularly pointed.

The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do. Not answering questions because we're afraid people won't like the answer just won't do....Tri-angulating or poll driven positions because we're worried about what Mitt or Rudy will say about us just won't do.

Here, he's tapping into Clinton's real weakness, which was on display at the recent debate and is the reason for the viral success of Edwards's Politics of Parsing web video: Clinton's double speak. But he doesn't stop there. Later in the speech, he calls Clinton out on some of her more hawkish votes, arguing that it's her way of tacking to the right for the general election.

I am running for president because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking that the only way to look tough on national security by talking and acting and voting like George Bush Republicans. When I am this party's nominee, my opponent will not be able to say I voted for the war in Iraq or gave Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran or that I support Bush/Cheney policies of not talking to people we don't like.

Not only is he aligning Clinton with Bush and Cheney much more effectively than he did over the summer, but he's portraying Clinton as sort of a partisan traitor in a way, someone who'd sell out the values of the Democratic Party to act more "Republican" in order to win. Obama is saying we can win by being Democrats...acting like a Democrat is a winning strategy. That's very appealing and, while risky, I think was the best way to go after the beloved first lady who is widely perceived to have been a Democratic champion against the right-wing machine.

One other thing I liked about his speech is what wasn't in it. Did you notice that not once did Obama use his tired "turn the page" line? For me, it was tired the first time I heard it. Last night he debuted a much better slogan: "change that America can believe in." This line takes Obama's two strengths, the perception that he's a candidate of change and that he's honest and trustworthy, and merges them, suggesting by extension that Clinton says she'll deliver change, but can you believe she'll deliver what she says she'll deliver?

This speech, for me, signaled a new beginning for a campaign that has been scattered and incredibly undisciplined of late. Yepsen thinks it was so good that it could singlehandedly close his gap with Clinton in Iowa. Certainly it restores confidence in a campaign that had lost it, but it should not be forgotten that this event, a big rally speech attended by thousands of people, was Obama's turf. This is what Obama does. He still hasn't proven himself to be a consistent debater and his appearance on Meet The Press was unexceptional, whereas Clinton hit hers out of the park. So while I'm split on Obama's weekend as a whole (J-J dinner: A, Meet The Press: B-,) and hence unclear as to whether last night meant anything longterm for him, I think what it does signal is that Obama has found the sweet spot when it comes to using Clinton's weakness as an argument against her and for himself, which is something John Edwards, for all of his hard hitting rhetoric against Clinton, has failed as yet to do.

There's more...

A mere week after launching Students for Hillary and touting its support among young people, top advisers to Hillary Clinton were busy in the spin room Saturday night disparaging them, claiming that Obama's supporters were young and unlikely to caucus.

Good strategy:  A week after finally setting up your campaign's organization to attract young people, tell them they won't vote anyway so their presence is irrelevant.

You can either dispute the idea that Obama has broad support among young people, or you can reinforce and disparage it, but either way you might want to make up your mind first before opening your mouth:

At least two of Hillary Clinton’s upper-echelon advisers, Mandy Grunwald and Mark Penn, were decidedly unimpressed.

“Our people look like caucus-goers,” Grunwald said, “and his people look like they are 18. Penn said they look like Facebook.”

Penn added, “Only a few of their people look like they could vote in any state.”

I have to say that I find these comments shocking, and I would expect better of any campaign that hoped to end up with our party's nomination.

First of all, people who are 18 ARE caucus-goers and, yes, young people do vote.

In 2004, young voters made up somewhere around 1/5 of the primary electorate in the early states. In Iowa, youth turnout in the caucuses quadrupled (pdf) in 2004, and 18-29 year olds constituted a larger share of the electorate [17%] than 30-44 year olds.  

In New Hampshire, young voters also increased their primary turnout (at pace with the rest of the electorate).  In three of the first primary states, youth participation in the general election increased substantially in 2004 and in 2006.

Second, let me get this straight, young voters turning out to commute to Des Moines to attend a five-hour long party convention on a Saturday night is evidence that these young people willnot turn out to caucus?  You want to run that by me again?

Third, let's leave aside that the Clinton campaign is basically on the record planning on a low youth turnout, which obviously leads one to doubt the sincerity or optimism of their efforts to do otherwise ––– a grave mistake, especially for a general election nominee.

Mark Penn's "They look like Facebook" deserves to be one of the most ridiculed strategic assertions of this campaign.

There's more...

The first thing that struck me was Hillary Clinton's entrance. It was definitely a rock star entrance -- she came from the floor and shook hands and spoke with people in the audience. That was not something she did, for example, back in April at the California Democratic Party Convention where Obama and Edwards both entered sort of high fiving the crowd and she came in through a human tunnel of supporters. In Iowa tonight, Clinton clearly had no intention of ceding the rock star ground to Obama, although his subsequent entrance did blow hers away, at least aurally, as the crowd broke into "Fired Up, Ready To Go!" and the cheering continued well after he arrived on the stage. This crowd was pumped. Did anyone else notice the cold greeting between Clinton and Edwards on the stage; he's the only one who didn't at least kiss her on the cheek, if not outright hug her; even Obama leaned in for the cheek kiss.

John Edwards was the first speech from a presidential candidate.

Edwards: "More than a year from now, we won't have Bush and Cheney to kick around anymore."

"I look at the Republican candidates, I see Bush on steroids."

Nice.

Edwards repeats his "moral test" language here, the moral test being "we may be the first genration of Americans that fails to give our children a better life than we've had."

Interesting that he uses "brothers and sisters" to address the crowd, that's how you speak to a labor crowd, I wonder if that was perceived to be odd or maybe this crowd was largely from labor, or perhaps most of his support in the crowd was.

Edwards is stepping up his delivery. He's giving an impassioned speech, his voice breaking. Is he connecting with the crowd though? Is his condemnation of "the entrenched interests" compelling, is his accusation of Bush that he has "destroyed the trust relationship" with America and around the world a compelling one?

Richardson: "Restoring the American dream: waking up Jan. 20, 2009, seeing a Democrat elected president and George Bush gone forever." Hell yes.

Odd that he would take up the Mukasey confirmation to lead with, since none of his opponents voted for Mukasey, in fact they said they opposed him. I did sort of think his torture stuff fell flat. Now he's going into the war. "I will bring troops back within a year."

"America needs to be not the policeman of the world, but the conscience of the world." Nice line, got some applause.

Most of his speech is listing what he would do as president. In other words, boring. We've heard it before. He does make an impression when he talks about Democrats not tearing each other down. This got huge applause. Richardson, the ultimate diplomat.

Joe Biden is up next. He starts out by ripping on Giuliani. Says he was wrong when he said every sentence Rudy says has a noun, a verb and "9/11" in it; now since Pat Robertson's endorsement, he's added an "Amen" to every sentence. Love it.

Considering he started with such red meat, surprising that he's now talking about gaining consensus in congress. Heh, now he's back to ripping Republicans, specifically their "values." He says he wants to have that debate. "What is a higher value, insuring every child in America or giving the rich a bigger tax break?" Nice.

"This president is going to be judged harshly not only because of the mistakes he has made, but also because of the opportunities he has squandered."

Chris Dodd is giving a good speech, but he's spending an awful lot of time with his back to the camera, which might actually be a good thing.

He will swear to protect and defend the constitution of the United States. "The Bush administration has failed...not only that, they've made it worse...It has been an assault on the constitution and as a result, our country is a lot less safe."

Damn.

"I will restore to the American people the constitution of the United States...No more Abu Ghraibs, no more Guantanamos, no more torture, no more rendering, no more providing retroactive immunity for companies that turned over phone records to the Bush adminsitration without a court order, no more waterboarding, no more denying people habeas corpus, there'll be no more attorney generals who think the president is above the law."

Dodd is on fire.

Another good line: "You ought to lead by the force of your example, not by the example of your force."

Dodd's speech is the best so far.

Hillary Clinton:

She took the stage, as before, to a rock star's welcome. She's throwing some red meat. "We are here tonight to make sure the next president is a Democrat. Because we know, after 7 years of George W. Bush, 7 years or incompetence, cronyism and corruption, 7 years of government of the few, by the few and for the few, we as a nation can not afford any other choice."

"Change is just a word without the strength and experience to make it happen."

So much for using new slogans.

It's interesting, her tone is more intimate and hushed than I'm used to, it feels like she's having a conversation more than giving a speech. I'm sure it's largely a strategy to save her voice but it works for her because when she does raise her voice, it feels all the more dramatic.

This seems new:

"We want to be proud again, we want to be progressive again."

She's addressing the attacks on her:

"There are some who will say they don't know where I stand on issues. Well, I think you know better than that...I stand with you and with your children and with every American who needs a fighter in their corner for a better life."

She's recalling the theme from one of her ads:

"This election is about those people who feel invisible...There shouldn't be any invisible Americans and when I am president, there will not be."

Ah, now she's getting to her new slogan.

"I'm not interested in attacking my opponents, I'm interested in attacking the problems of America and I believe we should be turning up the heat on the Republicans, they deserve all the heat we can give them. If you listen to the Republicans running this year, they see 8 more years of George Bush...America is done with Republicans and their failed policies...We Democrats have to decide what we're for. We Democrats believe the middle class is the backbone of America."

She's now rallying the crowd, leading a chant of "Turn up the heat!" It's not exactly "Fired Up. Ready To Go!" but it'll have to do.

Clinton is making the best case for electing Democrats I've ever heard.

This is a great line:

"If you will stand for me for a night, I will stand and fight for you for every day in this campaign and every day in the White House."

Damn the place is pumped.

Obama is getting tough with Bush, I like it. "

There's more...

Hey folks-

I got back from JJ just a while ago...didn't leave until 12 central time.

Here is my observations about the top three's speeches tonight before I go to bed. I'm trying to get these thoughts down before that become tainted by what pundits may say.

There's more...