Are Democrats Really Doing Better In 2006 than 2004?
by Chris Bowers, Mon Mar 20, 2006 at 08:51:41 AM EST
In a word, yes. But if I can say something in one word that I could have instead used 1,600 words and a load of data to back it up, then this wouldn't be MyDD and I wouldn't be me--Chris
Amidst and below all of the hope and excitement surrounding massive Democratic leads in congressional generic ballot polls, extremely low Bush approval ratings, and very strong Democratic recruiting information, I have noticed in progressive circles that there remains a nagging sense of dread about the 2006 elections. In the circles I travel, much this sense comes from a lack of faith in our leadership to capitalize on what is perceived to be the best opportunity to retake congress in a decade. I share this worry, especially when I hear more and more about Democrats in DC adhering to a strategy of stepping aside and letting Republicans implode of their own accord. My biggest worry about this strategy is that even if it were to produce a Democratic majority in congress, it would only be successful in producing a temporary Democratic majority in congress, ala the Republican majority of 1952. If your only plan to take power is to let your opponent implode, then you are operating as though your opponent is the natural governing party of the country, and that you can only take control for a brief period of time after they monumentally mismanage government. It is a cowering and defeatist strategy, one that does nothing to alter the conventional wisdom of he national political discourse that has grown so very poisonous to Democrats. Solving this problem is going to be extremely difficult and long term: we have to work with and support those Democrats who are willing to push the limits of conventional political wisdom, and try to change the behavior of those Democrats who are not.
Apart from a lack of confidence in the Democratic leadership, there is a second worry about 2006 that I often see voiced in the netroots. Specifically, many people, myself included, worry that while Democrats hold large leads right now, didn't we hold large leads in 2004 as well? We all know hat that turned out.
Fortunately, unlike the first fear, the second fear can dispelled in the short term. Comparing data from 2004 and 2006 quickly reveals that Democrats are, in fact, much further ahead of Republicans at this point in the 2006 election cycle than we were ahead of Republicans at any point of the 2002 or 2004 election cycle. For starters, compare the results of the most recent generic congressional ballot polls with the best results we had in such polls from 2004:
Amidst and below all of the hope and excitement surrounding massive Democratic leads in congressional generic ballot polls, extremely low Bush approval ratings, and very strong Democratic recruiting information, I have noticed in progressive circles that there remains a nagging sense of dread about the 2006 elections. In the circles I travel, much this sense comes from a lack of faith in our leadership to capitalize on what is perceived to be the best opportunity to retake congress in a decade. I share this worry, especially when I hear more and more about Democrats in DC adhering to a strategy of stepping aside and letting Republicans implode of their own accord. My biggest worry about this strategy is that even if it were to produce a Democratic majority in congress, it would only be successful in producing a temporary Democratic majority in congress, ala the Republican majority of 1952. If your only plan to take power is to let your opponent implode, then you are operating as though your opponent is the natural governing party of the country, and that you can only take control for a brief period of time after they monumentally mismanage government. It is a cowering and defeatist strategy, one that does nothing to alter the conventional wisdom of he national political discourse that has grown so very poisonous to Democrats. Solving this problem is going to be extremely difficult and long term: we have to work with and support those Democrats who are willing to push the limits of conventional political wisdom, and try to change the behavior of those Democrats who are not.
Apart from a lack of confidence in the Democratic leadership, there is a second worry about 2006 that I often see voiced in the netroots. Specifically, many people, myself included, worry that while Democrats hold large leads right now, didn't we hold large leads in 2004 as well? We all know hat that turned out.
Fortunately, unlike the first fear, the second fear can dispelled in the short term. Comparing data from 2004 and 2006 quickly reveals that Democrats are, in fact, much further ahead of Republicans at this point in the 2006 election cycle than we were ahead of Republicans at any point of the 2002 or 2004 election cycle. For starters, compare the results of the most recent generic congressional ballot polls with the best results we had in such polls from 2004:
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