Here's an updated version of my election results tracking spreadsheet, which presents states chronologically in order of their poll closings, and maps into columns those states' votes for McCain and Obama based upon current polls, as reported at http://electoral-vote.com (This is a follow-on to my diary here last week - Over by 9-11pm?)

A number of US PEG access channels will be doing live election results coverage Tuesday night - most surely focusing primarily on their local races.  I emailed a version of this to them a few days ago, but it's been suggested to me that maintaining one version online which everyone could see would be more useful.

So, via Google docs, I've done that.  Here's its website:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p qG_omSksmduYpp2i2HpvHg

and here's the spreadsheet:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p qG_omSksmduYpp2i2HpvHg

The spreadsheet is constructed so that as called states' electoral votes are entered into the Obama or McCain columns, and deleted from the poll results columns, a running total for both candidates is added to their remaining expected wins -- again, based upon the final poll results.

I'll upload a final pre-election version of this, with polling results as of Monday, I suppose.  Then Tuesday night, at a friend's house perched 100 feet above the Long Island Sound in Orient NY, watching no less than 3 networks, I'll be updating this as states are called.

I wonder if any of you know of any similar tools that have been created and made available, and I welcome your comments about this one.  This spreadsheet is free for anyone to republish under the Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial" license.  

On the sunny side,

Rob McCausland

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I just compiled a spreadsheet mapping the states poll results as reported on electoral-vote.com into a table arranged chronologically by the states' poll closing times (sourced from http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closin g.phtml?format=ec).  I've built in a calculation which will add Obama's actual EVs as I enter them to the remaining projected Obama EVs.

(I don't know how to format that for presentation here, but if there's a way to do that, let me know - I'll give it a try or send it to you so you can.)

Assuming the numbers as of today (Oct. 25) are the final numbers, and assuming states are called as soon as their polls close,  it seems Obama will have won by 9 pm, with 286 electoral votes and counting.

If, of his projected wins, Barack loses only all four "Barely Democratic" states (NC, FL, MO, NV), where he's currently polling less then 5% ahead) he will win at 11 pm, with 317 electoral votes.  That would seem to be his final count, assuming he picks up no currently projected McCain wins, since only Alaska polls close later than 11 pm eastern.

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For the purposes of this diary, the battleground is defined as the thirteen states whose projected margin is within 6% according to today's 538.com figures.  Both major candidates have a 15-85% of carrying these states on Election Day.  The remaining 37 states (and D.C.) are solidly in either Obama's or McCain's camp at this time.

The figures following each state's name are its electoral vote, its margin in the 2000 election, its margin in the 2004 election, and its current margin according to 538.com.  In each case, positive numbers indicate a lead for the Democratic candidate and negative numbers indicate a lead for the Republican candidate.

Michigan (17) +5.13 +3.42 +5.3
Colorado (9) -8.36 -4.67 +5.1
Pennsylvania (21) +4.17 +2.50 +4.1
Virginia (13) -8.04 -8.20 +2.4
Nevada (5) -3.55 -2.59 +0.8
New Hampshire (4) -1.27 +1.37 +0.5
Ohio (20) -3.51 -2.11 +0.3
Florida (27) -0.01 -5.01 -1.0
Indiana (11) -15.63 -20.68 -1.4
North Carolina (15) -12.83 -12.43 -2.3
Missouri (11) -3.34 -7.20 -2.6
West Virginia (5) -6.32 -12.86 -5.0
Montana (3) -25.07 -20.50 -5.3

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By most reasonable estimates, Obama has 238 electoral votes firmly in his column, and McCain has 200.  The remaining 100 electoral votes are still in play.  These votes are found in the following eight states, all of which are within 3% according to 538.com's latest estimates:

Florida, 27 EV
Ohio, 20 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Colorado, 9 EV
New Mexico, 5 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV

Obama needs 32 of these 100 votes to win; 31 will result in a 269-269 electoral tie.

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As of today, two days after the close of the RNC, Electoral-Vote.com is shpwing Obama as significantly ahead. Indeed, Ohio and North Dakota, which were leaning Republican at the height of the RNC, are now leaning Democratic.

This is in direct conflict with the McCain campaign's statements, whose web site is using figures from last June and July.

It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency, and Obama is now projected as having 301.

With 60 days left in the race, the daily look at these poll figures will be important for the consideration of the campaigns. Couple this with the Republican strategy of keeping Palin away from the press and pushing of personalities instead of issues and it will put the onus right on the intelligence of the American voter to make a choice.

Under The LobsterScope

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